Its October 2023 and US market has just started its Q4 2023 journey. Since the beginning of this year, analysts have forewarned about US economy slipping into a recession as the central bank continued with interest hike from February 2023. The narrative changed when that did not happen (see above). With many diverse opinions swirling on the internet, things got a bit muddled. The question — “Is the US heading into recession ?” is something that I am very interested to confirm. This is because it will affect US stock market that will, in turn affect individual stock / company. Latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) monthly chart released on 13 Sep 2023, showed an “increase” in monthly inflation of +0.4% (in August 2023) versus July’s +0.2%. The spike (we all know) was large due to oil price

Let's review the overall market and the trading opportunities in the stocks I've been monitoring. The interest rate decision lands, and it's as hawkish as expected, which is also in line with common sense. Anyone claiming it's unexpected must have their own problems. The 'higher for longer' stance was set as early as last year, why didn't they believe it?This basically confirms that there will be another interest rate hike in November this year, and it's time to start pricing it in. The current market adjustment also aligns with historical patterns seen in September. For those who are unsure or confused about the market's direction, I sincerely recommend keeping most of your funds in Tiger Vault for now.Another currently focused event is the government shutdown. Personally, I don't think t

Big-Tech’s PerformanceFOMC September meeting’s done, another skip in rate hike was in line with expectations, but the hawks alive. Consensus of delay in rate cut in Q3 2024 has led market risk aversion, resulting in sell-off in U.S. stocks, with tech companies, which have seen significant gains this year, taking the biggest shit.As of the close on September 21st, all major tech companies have seen declines over the past five trading days. The smallest decline and the strongest performance came from $Apple(AAPL)$ at -0.04% following its significant drop the previous week. Others include $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ -3.59%, $Alphabet(GOOG)$ at -5.2%,

The Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting took a wait-and-see approach with no interest rate hike. However, the dot plot and Chairman Powell's remarks appeared more hawkish, indicating a reduction in the expected number of rate cuts next year and a significant upward revision in economic data forecasts. The market experienced severe volatility, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surging beyond 4.4% $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$, and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ both dropped by 1.5%, while the $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ broke through 105.6.Skipping September, why did most committee members support another rate hike? It's because the market had alrea

Inflation is making headlines once again, and its effects are reverberating through central banks and global financial markets. Recent developments in Japan and the United States highlight the challenges and uncertainties associated with managing inflation in today's economic landscape. In this post, I'll delve into the impact of inflation on central bank policies and its consequences for global markets. Japan's Inflation Surprise Japan CPI inflation grows more than expected in August as BOJ looms Japan recently reported consumer inflation figures that exceeded expectations. The National core consumer price index inflation, excluding volatile fresh food prices, rose to 3.1% in August, surpassing forecasts and remaining steady from the previous month. This unexpected surge in inflation has

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed at 4273.53, below the key support level of 4300; $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ fell below 13100 yesterday.With two key indices falling below the support level, market begins to speculate for more declines.The UAW strike, the potential shutdown of the US government this weekend, and analysts downgrading ratings of tech giants have made the upcoming October more uncertain.If the Republican and Democratic parties cannot reach an agreement before October 1st, most federal government departments will have to shut down.Although fat bear week is held to pick fat bears, some retail investors consider it’s an unlucky period for stock market. Especially, it coincides with the plunge of major indi

$Cisco(CSCO)$ announced on Thursday its agreement to acquire the cybersecurity company $Splunk(SPLK)$ for $28 billion, or $157 per share. Splunk's stock rose by 21% to $144, with the remaining $13 attributed to the uncertainty of the acquisition. If successful, the deal is expected to conclude in the third quarter of 2024. Splunk is a US software company founded in 2003, primarily providing data analysis and visualization solutions to help enterprises extract valuable information from massive datasets. Additionally, it assists in monitoring network security events and conducting threat detection and response, making it relevant in the field of cybersecurity.Why Splunk?Splunk was one of the early companies

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  Well, well, well, folks! The S&P 500 has once again decided to play hide and seek with the magical number 4300, and it seems like it's not in the mood to come out and play. So, what's the deal with this elusive 4300, you ask? Well, let's dive into the some analysis of the situation. First things first, let's talk about last Friday's data. It was like a surprise party you didn't know you were invited to, and it turned out pretty good! The Core PCE (that's Personal Consumption Expenditures for you non-financial wizards) decided to take a nosedive, and that's what gave the market a pat on the back. "Good job, market, you can keep partying!" Now, if you peek at the options market, yo

As the benchmark interest rate of the global market, 10-year US Treasury bond rate hit a low of only 0.5% in 2020, but now has broken through 4.6%. Has the US already entered a high interest rate era? $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ $iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF(SGOV)$ A high interest rate era requires a significant increase in the central tendency of the US Treasury bond rate cycle. Based on existing data, although there is an upward risk to the central tendency of the US Treasury bond rate, the magnitude of the change may be limited and it may be premature to assert that we are returning to a high interest rate era like that of 1960-1980. Currently, the 10-year US Treasury bond rate is a

Cainiao has officially submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Since Alibaba's "1+6+N" initiative, the spin-off listing of various business segments has become a focus of the secondary market. Previously, Hema(盒马)and Aliyun were considered as potential candidates for the first listings. Why did Cainiao make the first move?The most important reason is the current financing environment. As A-share market has tightened its listing requirements for consumer companies, and the valuation of consumer companies in the Hong Kong stock market continues to be under pressure, making the listing environment unfavorable for Hema. Although cloud service companies are popular in Hong Kong。Based on the performance of the past two years, Cainiao is also the most suitable candidate to

Black Thursday, with all three major U.S. stock indices falling over 1%. Among them, the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ suffered the most significant drop at 1.82%, while the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ declined by 1.6%, marking its worst single-day performance since the Silicon Valley Bank (SIVBQ) crisis. The $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ , representing small-cap stocks, also dropped by 1.62%, with the top-weighted stocks experiencing even greater declines. Therefore, this two-day pullback is primarily concentrated in heavyweight stocks. Among them, $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ fell by -4.41%, the largest drop among big tech stocks, while the volatil

1. The US government is about to fall into the 22nd "shutdown" dilemma!According to public information, the U.S. federal government generally requires congressional appropriations based on fiscal years to maintain operations. The current fiscal year is about to end on September 30, and existing funds can only support the operation of the federal government until September 30. If the two parties cannot agree on a new fiscal year budget or an interim appropriation bill, starting from October 1 , some federal government agencies will be closed.Historically: The 35-day shutdown period from 2018 to 2019 was the longest.Gov shutdown 35 daysAt that time, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ hit bottom on the second day of the government shutdown. During the 35 days o