LivyInvestment
LivyInvestment
Boutique investment research shop providing professional coverage on disruptive thematic equities. Our analysis provides a deep dive on growth drivers present in the secular market to identify outperforming investments.
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3 Significant Risks That Market Has Yet To Price In For Super Micro Computer

Following an eye-watering rally earlier this year, the SMCI stock has now flipped to YTD declines as it faces continued implications of ongoing accounting woes. In the latest turn of events, SMCI's auditor, Ernst & Young, has resigned from the engagement. This casts further uncertainties on when investors can expect SMCI's delayed 10-K filing. In the meantime, SMCI bulls continue to believe that the company's accounting problems and delayed 10-K filing are isolated issues from its technological advantage in capturing AI opportunities. However, SMCI's delayed 10-K filing alone (even if without material misstatements) has adverse cascading effects on its operations, which are fast approaching yet remain underappreciated by the market at current levels. JHVEPhoto The Super Micro Computer
3 Significant Risks That Market Has Yet To Price In For Super Micro Computer

Here's Why We're Switching Sides On Broadcom (Rating Downgrade)

Summary Much of Broadcom Inc.'s rally this year has been buoyed by market confidence in its competitive advantage in custom ASICs and networking solutions, which are critical in AI infrastructure. But the stock's post-earnings pullback reflects concerns pertaining to the uncertain recovery timeline for Broadcom's non-AI segments, which still account for the bulk of its business. The infrastructure software segment also faces impending risks of maturation, which limits margin expansion and cash flow improvement needed to address the elevated debt exposure acquired from VMware. This leaves little durability to the stock's current valuation. JHVEPhoto Broadcom Inc.’s (NASDAQ:AVGO) selloff in response to its lighter-than-expected
Here's Why We're Switching Sides On Broadcom (Rating Downgrade)

AMD Takes An Effective Bargain Route Against Nvidia

Summary Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. has been consistently furthering its consolidation strategy in an aim to better compete against end-to-end AI solutions provided by industry leader and key competitor Nvidia. This is expected to complement ongoing efforts in extending its AI market share gains by bolstering uptake of its core data center hardware offerings, particularly its latest Instinct MI300 accelerators. The additive growth outlook will also underpin sustained margin expansion as new products, especially within the more profitable data center segment, continue to scale. JHVEPhoto Catching up to rival Nvidia’s (NVDA) AI prowess has long been a milestone in the works for Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:
AMD Takes An Effective Bargain Route Against Nvidia

Fundamentals Support Super Micro Computer To Rip Much Higher

Summary As discussed in our previous coverage, the start of productions and shipments of SMCI's proprietary DLC solution is a key catalyst for the stock. Margin compression risks remain a key overhang on SMCI's valuation outlook, but the continued ramp of DLC shipments will offer sustained compensation through competitive unit economics and economies of scale. Management's latest target DLC penetration rate of 25% to 30% of new global data center deployments over the next 12 months is also a material jump from previous expectations. This is a game changer for SMCI, with ensuing fundamental benefits to profitability and cash flows still underappreciated at the stock's current price. JHVEPhoto In our
Fundamentals Support Super Micro Computer To Rip Much Higher

Here's Why Google Fell Despite The Q2 2024 Earnings Outperformance

Summary Google continues to be well-positioned in the AI play, with robust Q2 results in its core Search advertising business and persistent momentum in Cloud monetization. The latest earnings outperformance continues to assuage previous concerns about AI-driven cannibalization of Google's search dominance, and reinforces its reputation in actively monetizing the nascent technology. However, the stock's post-earnings response continues to highlight the increasing disparity between Google's fundamental outlook and its valuation premium at current levels. 400tmax Google (NASDAQ:GOOG/NASDAQ:GOOGL) has been one of the biggest gainers this year, alongside digital advertising peer Meta Platform
Here's Why Google Fell Despite The Q2 2024 Earnings Outperformance

Is Verizon Still A Buy After The Q2 Earnings Selloff?

Summary Verizon's Q2 revenue miss has wiped out its ~8% YTD gains all at once, taking the stock's choppy performance this year back to square one. Yet the company has continued to deliver favourable progress on its three pillars - namely, wireless service revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA expansion, and FCF growth. Postpaid wireless net adds have also returned to the positive side, with increasing adoption of its premium myPlan and myHome offerings coupled with comparatively limited churn. Taken together, we view the stock's latest pullback as the final boarding call for close-to-7% dividend yield, as Verizon's fundamentals are poised for better days in 2H24 alongside greater valuation correlation to rising Treasuries amid impending rate cuts. hapabapa Verizon Communications Inc.'s (NYSE:
Is Verizon Still A Buy After The Q2 Earnings Selloff?

3 Key Takeaways From TSMC's Q2 2024 Beat And Raise

Summary Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited's Q2 beat and raise continues to solidify its path towards a $1 trillion market cap. The robust results and upbeat outlook corroborate sustained demand for HPC hardware given ongoing AI momentum, complemented by a stronger-than-expected cyclical recovery in consumer devices. This continues to highlight the competitive value in Taiwan Semiconductor's technology advantage, given its sole capability in producing at the most advanced nodes and packaging processes critical to high-growth innovations like AI. BING-JHEN HONG Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited aka TSMC (NYSE:TSM) stock is likely on course towards a sustained $1 trillion market cap, as the underlying business
3 Key Takeaways From TSMC's Q2 2024 Beat And Raise

Here's Why We Think Super Micro Computer Will Hit Another All-Time High

Summary SMCI has been a clear winner in the market's ongoing AI rally, despite recently paring some of its gains on mixed earnings results. Yet the stock has been showing signs of a sustained recovery in recent weeks, underpinned by a successful Computex keynote that shows SMCI's mission-critical role in AI developments remains intact. SMCI also benefits from tangible fundamental tailwinds ahead, with improving supplies, additive growth from its first mover advantage in the provision of DLC solutions at scale, and increasing operating leverage. Trading at 2.5x estimated sales and 28.5x estimated earnings, SMCI's fundamental strength and emerging DLC advantage remain underappreciated, with potential for further upside. JHVEPhoto Since recognizing Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ:
Here's Why We Think Super Micro Computer Will Hit Another All-Time High

Investors Need A Margin Of Safety For PayPal After Yesterday

Summary PayPal Holdings, Inc. has largely recovered from post-Q1 earnings losses, as confidence remains in its "transition year," bolstered by a robust cash flow outlook and capital returns program in the near term. However, we believe heightened execution risks have emerged, particularly in the Venmo monetization component of PayPal's long-term growth roadmap. PayPal's longstanding competitor, Apple Pay, has initiated its foray to P2P payments with "Tap to Cash" via the latest iOS 18 update. This raises risks of severing P2P traffic to Venmo, which is a key customer acquisition gateway to the app's adjacent payment solutions aimed at bolstering user monetization. JHVEPhoto PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:PYPL) stock has largely recovered fr
Investors Need A Margin Of Safety For PayPal After Yesterday

Salesforce: After Its 20% Post-Q1 Decline Is Not A Bargain (Rating Downgrade)

Summary Salesforce, Inc.'s expectations for an extended measured buying environment through FY 2025 is increasing investor angst over a potentially structural single-digit growth outlook. While strong Data Cloud uptake rates continue to demonstrate momentum and reinforce Salesforce's AI strategy, contributions remain insufficient in reversing the near-term pace of deceleration. The results accordingly increase execution risks ahead for Salesforce, with investors now pivoting focus from margin expansion to the underlying business' ability to preserve a sustained double-digit growth trajectory. wdstock Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE:CRM) stock has yet to regain its recently lost ground following speculation over the potential Informatica (
Salesforce: After Its 20% Post-Q1 Decline Is Not A Bargain (Rating Downgrade)

These 3 Things Should Push Nvidia Even Higher

Summary Nvidia Corporation's stock price has tripled since the advent of generative AI solutions across day-to-day settings. And the company's latest earnings results reinforce a strong demand outlook underpinned by its mission-critical role in enabling the continued build-out of accelerated computing supporting AI developments. Paired with Nvidia's upcoming stock split, we expect further momentum to its valuation upsurge from current levels. BING-JHEN HONG Nvidia Corporation’s (NDVA) stock price has more than tripled since reporting an outsized growth trajectory last year unlocked by relentless AI momentum. The company’s technology continues to serve as the industry’s “gold standard” in facilitating AI developments. This is evident in Nvi
These 3 Things Should Push Nvidia Even Higher

Shopify: The Powerhouse Of Next-Generation Commerce

Summary Shopify Inc.'s steep post-earnings selloff highlighted its underperformance among peers in the latest earnings season. Despite its otherwise strong outlook, the stock was punished for higher opex spend expectations and a weaker-than-expected price increase benefit in the months ahead. However, Shopify Plus adoption remains strong, with a significantly outsized contribution to Shopify's growth and margin expansion at scale. The premium subscription's recent price increase is expected to be incrementally accretive to the company's long-term growth trajectory, nonetheless, while also reinforcing penetration into an expanded commerce TAM. JHVEPhoto Shopify Inc. (NYSE:SHOP) (TSX:SHOP:CA<
Shopify: The Powerhouse Of Next-Generation Commerce
avatarLivyInvestment
2023-11-02

Amazon Q3 2023 Outperformance Streak: Moat Monetization Is Back In Action

Summary Amazon.com, Inc. stock has underperformed the broader markets over the past month, reflecting investor wariness over the mixed consumer spending backdrop. Yet another consecutive quarter of robust outperformance underscores recovering strength in its e-commerce and AWS moats, which support continued margin expansion at scale alongside implementation of broader cost-savings initiatives. With the stock still trading trailing its historical and the mega-cap Internet peer group average, fundamental strength backed by AI monetization at AWS and fulfilment efficiencies underscores further upside potential. FinkAvenue Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) stock has underperformed broader markets over the past month. Declines are nearing 8% over
Amazon Q3 2023 Outperformance Streak: Moat Monetization Is Back In Action
avatarLivyInvestment
2023-11-02

Intel Q3 2023 Outperformance Overshadowed By Execution Risks Back In Focus

Summary Intel Corporation continued its streak of outperformance this year with stellar Q3 results. Yet we see signs of investors' wariness over IDM 2.0 execution risks returning, given ongoing uncertainties to near-term PC outlook, elevated costs of capital, and intensifying competition. This is corroborated by the stock's underperformance in recent weeks, with the market's response to Intel's Q3 outperformance still rangebound in the mid-$30 range. Leon Neal The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index’s (SOX) performance has been blighted by amplified focus on lingering industry challenges. These inclu
Intel Q3 2023 Outperformance Overshadowed By Execution Risks Back In Focus
avatarLivyInvestment
2023-11-02

Ford's Disappointing Q3 EV Performance Overshadows Prospects Of A UAW Relief Rally

Summary Ford Motor Company stock has declined by about 10% since the UAW strike began, trading at around $11. Despite the tentative agreement reached with the UAW earlier this week, Ford stock slid further, highlighting the impact of Ford's disappointing EV outlook coming out of the Q3 earnings release. Increasingly clouded visibility on Ford's EV strategy and ongoing UAW risks are likely to keep pressuring the stock's performance ahead. Vera Tikhonova Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) stock has been on a steady decline since the United Auto Workers ("UAW") strike began on September 14, erasing close to 10% of its market value over the same period. The stock now trades at about $11, despite having reached a
Ford's Disappointing Q3 EV Performance Overshadows Prospects Of A UAW Relief Rally
avatarLivyInvestment
2023-11-02

Is AMD Still In The AI Dog Race? Hints From Q3 2023 Earnings

Summary Advanced Micro Devices' Q3 performance highlights momentum in its AI efforts with the upcoming launch of MI300X accelerators, alongside a strong ramp of 4th Gen EPYC server processors. The company is also stepping up on the monetization of AI opportunities in the PC segment, with its new Ryzen AI-equipped products driving the client business back to profitable growth. Looking ahead, AMD remains well-positioned for further narrowing of its valuation gap from industry leaders as its AI monetization roadmap starts to materialize. David Becker Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) stock has forged a strong recovery this year, albeit still trailing the valuation of industry leader Nvidia Corporation (
Is AMD Still In The AI Dog Race? Hints From Q3 2023 Earnings
avatarLivyInvestment
2023-10-25

Tesla Q3 2023 Bust Shows Why It's No Longer Investors' Darling

Summary Tesla, Inc.'s Q3 delivery underperformance has led to a decline in its growth and profitability, with revenue and earnings per share during the period also coming in below already-tempered market expectations. The results underscore rising demand risks, particularly in China, where competition and macroeconomic challenges have led to aggressive price cuts. Investors' confidence in Tesla's speculative growth drivers, such as the Cybertruck and Full Self-Driving technology, is likely also waning, adding further downside risks to the stock. Spencer Platt Tesla, Inc.’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) Q3 delivery underperformance has fo
Tesla Q3 2023 Bust Shows Why It's No Longer Investors' Darling
avatarLivyInvestment
2023-10-25

Netflix Q3 2023 Outperformance: Don't Jump On The Bandwagon Yet

Summary Netflix, Inc. stock underperformed broader markets in Q3 due to mixed prospects following the global rollout of password sharing and an ad-supported tier. Better than expected Q3 results show progress in restoring growth and expanding profit margins, but ad sales and subscriptions still need improvement. The following analysis will walk through Netflix's Q3 results and forward guidance, and dive deeper into potential limitations to the stock's near-term upside potential. Mario Tama Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) stock underperformed broader markets during the third quarter, as investors mulled on its mixed prospects following the global rollout of password sharing and an ad-supported tier. The stock had largely been held back by a
Netflix Q3 2023 Outperformance: Don't Jump On The Bandwagon Yet
avatarLivyInvestment
2023-10-25

AT&T Q3 2023 Beat And Raise: Fundamentals Still Intact, Bond Rout Offers Strong Entry

Summary AT&T Inc.'s Q3 beat and raise has effectively lessened concerns among its income-focused investors' base on the durability of the stock's near 8% dividend yield at current levels. The stock's underperformance this year, despite AT&T's consistently positive progress in driving free cash flow build, is likely the result of broader bond market declines and rising Treasury yields. The combination of AT&T's strong fundamentals and a proven recession-proof business model, alongside macro-driven dividend yield expansion towards 8% presents a compelling entry opportunity for fixed-income investors. Justin Sullivan In our previous coverage on AT&T Inc. (NYSE:
AT&T Q3 2023 Beat And Raise: Fundamentals Still Intact, Bond Rout Offers Strong Entry
avatarLivyInvestment
2023-09-21

EVgo: Don't Blink On NEVI

sanfel EVgo (NASDAQ:EVGO) is one of the best-positioned EV charging infrastructure operators to benefit from the electrification wave in the U.S. With a comprehensive portfolio of charging offerings - spanning an owned and operated DC fast charging ("DCFC") networking, an operated-only eXtend network, a fleet-facilitating network, and supporting software and technology - EVgo's infrastructure effectively addresses the needs of every critical vertical of the EV ecosystem. While the multi-faceted strategy allows the company to partake in a larger EV charging TAM, it also comes at a higher price. Building out its owned and operating netw
EVgo: Don't Blink On NEVI

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