To The Moon

tldr: Watch the Tesla bears perform the Dunkirk retreat. $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ To analyze Nvidia's trend, we must first look at $ARM Holdings Ltd(ARM)$ . ARM will report earnings after the close on Wednesday. As is well known, one chipmaker's earnings can impact the entire semiconductor sector and even the broader market. If ARM surges, Nvidia will surge. And if Nvidia rises, the market will rise.Based on current large option positions, the market is extremely bullish on ARM's earnings, with far-dated 155 calls ($ARM 20240621 155.0 CALL$ ) even seeing activity.If ARM is expected to rally, then Nvidia and the market should rally too, right?T

Title inspired by yesterday's option flow $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Nvidia surged 3.77% on Monday, with options flow tilted towards calls. The most active call strikes this week are 950 and 920, while 850 saw the highest put volume. This disjointed strike activity is normal - market sentiment doesn't sequentially buy 925, 930, 935 etc., but instead concentrates on a further out-of-the-money strike for higher leverage. This makes the continuous call strikes seen the week of April 19th seem abnormal, reinforcing the belief it was an intentional bearish play.While the market leans bullish, breaking 920 still has difficulty. One can continue accumulating the stock on dips, as it's likely to see upside volatility ahead of earnings. However, upside volatility

In summary: From May 6th to May 17th, the market will overall experience range-bound consolidation. For option buyers with medium-term positions (expiring in 3 months), it is recommended to roll them over for an additional month to combat time decay. For short-term positions, day-trading is advised. Option sellers will have a relatively comfortable time, with short positions in either calls or puts likely to be profitable during this period. The price action on May 17th will probably continue the sideways consolidation, unable to replicate the strength seen on April 19th. $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ The key resistance levels for Nvidia this week are $900 and $920 ($NVDA 20240510 920.0 CALL$ 

TLDR: Tesla has a high probability of trading around $190 this week. If there is a significant deviation on Thursday or Friday, it may be worth considering buying options to speculate on a potential squeeze. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ surged 15% on Monday, which should theoretically indicate bullish market sentiment. However, after battling market makers for so long, the first thing I checked was the open interest data for put options. As expected, the open interest for puts with strike prices between $195 and $185 saw a substantial increase.On the call side, the strikes with the largest increase in open interest were mainly above $200. But the $190 to $200 strike range already had significant open interest. Therefore, this week's Tesla price action is

TL;DR: A mysterious institution is bullish on Tesla, expecting the stock price to explore $210 in June and return above the year's high of $250 by August.On the afternoon of April 28th, a sudden news report revealed that Elon Musk had been invited to visit China. The main purpose is to discuss the deployment of Tesla's self-driving technology in the Chinese market. Although there is no specific timeline, judging from official Weibo statements and the Tesla app's purchase page descriptions, cooperation between the two parties seems highly likely.On Monday, Tesla finally reversed its sluggish performance this year, with its pre-market stock price surging 12%, showing strong signs of a trend reversal. Previously, Tesla's option big orders were predominantly bearish, with the main strategy bei

This article mainly includes three parts: the mystery behind Nvidia's surge on Friday, the position adjustment of institutional big orders after earnings reports, and the prediction for the market in the first week of May.Market Review: $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Let me admit a mistake first. I said last Friday that Nvidia would likely close between $800 and $840, but it actually surged to close at $879. What happened?Because I didn't confirm the changes in option positions on Wednesday and Thursday. In fact, when Nvidia's stock price fell below $800 on Wednesday, the open interest for the $840 and $850 call options increased by 14,000 and 11,000 contracts respectively.So on Friday, with the perfect timing, market conditions and bullish sentiment, the st

$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ - I sold META puts a couple days ago. Although I believe META can rebound in the future, the capital used to take on those put positions will likely be tied up for at least 3 months. As someone who tries to unite theory and practice, I didn't really feel like talking much tonight and wanted to remain quiet.Despite lacking energy, I still need to maintain daily observations. An interesting question arises - after an earnings release, will market makers start killing off option positions?Call options will undoubtedly get crushed. For META's put options this week, the 450, 470, 440, 400, 480 strikes have the highest open interest. Looking at the intraday movements, although market makers can't control everything, they sti

In summary: Tesla's stock price is likely to settle around $160 this week, but there is a small probability of a gamma squeeze on call options, pushing the price up to $170.After its earnings report, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ rebounded 11%, essentially just recouping last week's losses. Apart from "killing" the shorts, there seems to be no other substantial impact - it was just noise.The short-sellers were hit hard, with the effect being significant. The top 9 out-of-the-money put options expiring this week were essentially all buried, expiring worthless. Listed from low to high strike prices, the put options with open interest above 10,000 contracts had strikes at: 150, 140, 130, 135, 75, 120, 100, 145, 125, 160, 115, 155, 110, and 90.The distribution

Impacted by last week's plunge, tech earnings this week, even with robust numbers, may not see significant rallies and could potentially decline further. As a result, large options orders for tech stocks appear to have turned quite conservative, with institutions starting to employ in-the-money option combinations to reduce costs and control risks. This reflects the market's skepticism about the sustainability of the current market rebound. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ I believe META will remain the strongest performer this earnings season due to its monopolistic advantages. However, expectations should not be set too high, as the previous sell-off has made $525 a minor resistance level, making a repeat of last quarter's 20% surge unrealistic. No

After examining Friday's new options positions, I feel there's no need to wait until Monday's market close. I can assert that this week, the battle for NVIDIA's stock price will revolve around the $800 level.Specifically, I'm optimistic that NVIDIA will be able to maintain a price above $800 this week, although upside may be capped around the $840 level.Let me first share the overall picture of NVIDIA's options. Although some might regret missing last week's plunge, there's no need to worry, as the next major options expiration event is on May 17th, when the monthly options for May expire, with a significant number of open interest contracts. However, the specific dynamics will depend on the price movement preferences in May, for which I'll conduct a thorough analysis as we approach that d