$NVDA$Institutions are highly confident in this week's downward trend, having filled out spreads across the entire $181–191 strike range. As a result, unless NVDA stays suppressed below $179 this week, there's a low probability of a significant short squeeze rally back to $185.The more likely scenario is a pullback to $170 first, potentially even below, followed by a rebound. After all, this is triple witching week, with $170 and $160 puts as key targets for expiration pressure. The drop presents an excellent opportunity to sell puts, with strikes at $170 or $165: $NVDA 20251219 170.0 PUT$ $NVDA 20251219 165.0 PUT$ .$SPY$SPY is set to follow a pattern o
$AVGO$ earnings were the polar opposite of Oracle's. While the standard financial metrics were outstanding, the backlog fell short of expectations, and the stock still dropped.A lower-than-expected backlog could stem from various factors, but the market is leaning towards interpreting it as a slowdown in investment. The next question is why investment is slowing—AI is still figuring out its monetization path. In simple terms, because it's not yet profitable, the pace of cash burn is moderating.Considering Broadcom supplies the current U.S. AI leader, Google, if even the leader is being cautious, other players likely are too. Therefore, a market pullback seems inevitable.The consensus from put activity suggests the stock will stay above $350, but the market's sell put strike preference is a
$ORCL$If OpenAI's commercialization capabilities were truly outstanding, Oracle's stock would likely tell a very different story with the same earnings data. That's the takeaway from this earnings report.Therefore, whether Oracle is a dip-buying candidate depends heavily on the progress of OpenAI's commercialization, or the emergence of another giant with a killer product that declares current server capacity utterly insufficient, capturing market imagination as a potential future Oracle customer replacing OpenAI.On Thursday's open, someone bought 10,000 contracts of the weekly 190 call $ORCL 20251212 190.0 PUT$ , with timing precision that is astonishing.Additionally, just before Wednesday's close, a buyer picked up 100,
$NVDA$A large player positioned for the H200 news with an unusual in-the-money sell put: $NVDA 20260116 187.0 PUT$ . Premium volume was ~$10 million, with 9,483 contracts opened.Typically, selling in-the-money puts is done only with high conviction that the stock will be at or above the strike price at expiration. This aligns with the earlier judgment for the Dec-Jan period: limited upside, but also resilient downside.While the trade rationale is understandable, it's worth noting such an unconventional block doesn't necessarily come from a seasoned trader.Contradicting this flow are other put openings, which still anticipate a pullback below $180. However, this remains consistent with the overall $170–200 range view.The m
$NVDA$The answer in the headline is: the lower bound has improved significantly, and the upper bound has nudged slightly higher to 187.5.Due to the massive accumulation of open options positions in December and January, the next two months will primarily be characterized by range-bound trading—unless major positive catalysts emerge, like a breakthrough killer AI app that could lift the entire AI sector.In the absence of such a game-changing product, the expectation is for NVDA to oscillate between $160 and $200 until the January 16th expiration. The January 16th 200 call has an open interest of 159k contracts, and the January 19th 200 call has 106k. Under these conditions, the stock is unlikely to trade above $200.However, the positive news has significantly raised the strike prices for ne
$NVDA$The market has returned to recent highs, making the direction for the next three weeks uncertain again. In assessing market risk ahead of the FOMC, one notable signal is that 14k contracts of the long-dated 170 call $NVDA 20260220 170.0 CALL$ were reduced.It's uncommon for institutions to reduce long calls, but it doesn't necessarily imply a deep decline. It could also indicate an expectation for extended consolidation, which would erode the option's time value.Institutions selling calls this week chose the 187.5 strike $NVDA 20251212 187.5 CALL$ , hedging with the 195 call $NVDA 20251
$SPY$The biggest uncertainty before year-end is whether the market will pull back to 650. SPY put activity shows various strategies hedging for this scenario, e.g., buy $SPY 20251231 680.0 PUT$ sell $SPY 20251231 650.0 PUT$ .$NVDA$Next week is still expected to trade between $170–190, with potentially higher volatility than this week. For a straightforward approach, consider selling the 200 call $NVDA 20251219 200.0 CALL$ , or even a January expiry.Put activity also reflects significant uncertainty ahead of Christmas, which makes sense—if the stock can’t rally, it will likely move lower
$GOOGL$The broader market is likely to continue its rebound today, with SPY potentially reaching 688. However, not every stock will ride this wave—sector rotation is evident as year-end approaches.The rotation has turned against Google this time. Bears opened a position by buying 10,000 contracts of the Jan 9th 315 Put $GOOGL 20260109 315.0 PUT$ , with a total premium of approximately $12 million.Overall, excluding this put activity, Google's options flow still appears strong, suggesting a likely trading range between $315–325. However, following this significant bearish bet, while the stock may hold above $315 this week, the outlook beyond next week becomes less certain.$NVDA$Maintaining the view of a $180–185 trading r
$NVDA$Following Trump's hints about the Fed chair nominee last night, the market gapped up then sold off, printing a bearish upper wick. Interestingly, a significant number of puts were closed, including 28k contracts of this week's 165 put $NVDA 20251205 165.0 PUT$ , signaling shorts are backing off from an immediate assault.Notably, bearish news like OpenAI pausing ads to accelerate new models and Amazon's chip development challenging NVIDIA had little impact.The likely closing range for this week now looks like $180–185.$SPY$The immediate risk of a sharp drop to 650 has diminished. However, a pullback to 670 is still possible. Overall, the bias remains toward retesting the previous high around 689.$AAPL$Apple is leadin
$NVDA$Selling calls into strength remains suitable for the current setup, with strikes preferably above 190.Based on Monday's options flow, the probability of a pullback to 160 within the next month is quite high. The Dec 5th 165 put $NVDA 20251205 165.0 PUT$ saw 41k contracts opened. The overall delta was positive, indicating seller dominance, but such heavy open interest also creates downward pressure.A retest of 170 is possible this week. If considering selling puts, it's advisable to add a protective put leg or wait for an actual pullback before entering.Looking at the broader open interest, it will likely be difficult for NVDA to break above 200 before the Jan 16 monthly expiration. The two calls with the highest op