To The Moon

The July FOMC confirmed no rate hike — that's good. The U.S. stock market really can't handle any more turbulence right now. It may seem "reasonable" that only South Korea and Japan are plummeting, but in reality, it's not reasonable at all. The 100,000-contract IGV weekly call position $IGV 20260731 88.0 CALL$ was closed before Tuesday's close. Although IGV continued to rise today, for weekly options with less than five days to expiration, the trading discipline is exactly that — open on the day, close on the same day or the next. The noteworthy point is that I initially thought this trade was betting on upside from MSFT and META earnings, and that after closing it would at least roll into a new position. But the block trad

The biggest difference between this week and last: negative sentiment toward memory chips is finally spreading widely. Last week was "buy the dip with full confidence"; but after CXMT's listing Monday, plus news of mass-produced Chinese DUV, fears of surging supply crushed an already fragile uptrend. For some names, a monthly pullback has turned into a quarterly one, and panic is fully setting in. Yet Tuesday's semiconductor crash didn't drag the broad market down—which, to me, isn't a good sign. Last week someone traded 70,000 contracts of the Aug 19 29 call$VIX 20260819 29.0 CALL$  . If the market won't correct even now, what is this VIX call betting on? Surely not a rate hike at Wednesday's FOMC?

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ A week of major pullback. SPY target remains the same as last week — looking at 710–720. Speaking of which, here's something interesting: software ETF saw a massive bullish (expiration-day) call order last Friday. This week's 88 call $IGV 20260731 88.0 CALL$ opened 100,000 contracts — that's $20 million spent on weekly options. And it actually rose on Monday. So can we chase IGV? Naturally, no. Currently, semiconductors and software are seesawing — the reason is that sentiment has temporarily shifted toward the software sector, which has richer cash flows. Notably, IGV's top holding is Microsoft. There is broad consensus that this week's earnings wil

$SK hynix(SKHY)$ In the current range-bound market, U.S.-listed SK Hynix has a key weapon that the Hong Kong-listed 7709 $CSOP SK Hynix Daily (2x) Leveraged Product(07709)$ lacks: options! The Hong Kong ticker can only trade the underlying stock for price differences, while U.S.-listed SKHY allows you to Sell Puts during high volatility, turning range-bound movement directly into cash flow. Indeed, we've seen many large Sell Put orders over the past two days. Why is now particularly suitable for Selling Puts? SK Hynix reports earnings on 7/29, and pre-earnings IV has been pushed very high, making premiums especially rich. In addition, while the memory sector may not rally much in the short term, its long

I haven't written an article in a long time, and choosing to pick up the pen today feels rather meaningful—Big Tech's valuations got collectively marked down on this day, because the nature of their business has changed, from asset-light to asset-heavy. Some may remember the HALO (heavy assets, low obsolescence) concept that Goldman Sachs championed in the first half of the year. As it turns out, HALO just means "hard to die"—it doesn't mean "won't fall." When Big Tech collectively goes HALO, the broad market falls, and when the market falls, all stocks get dragged down with it. But on Thursday, semiconductor stocks—especially memory chips—held up remarkably well, because memory is the party being paid: it absorbs the cash flow coming from the HALO names. So when other stocks get marked do

A headline crossed today: 25-year-old "Wall Street prodigy" Leopold Aschenbrenner disclosed his fund's holdings. As of March 31st, his reported put options were valued at approximately $8.459 billion — spanning SMH, NVDA, MU, AVGO, AMD, TSM, and others. 13F filings reflect actual holdings at quarter end. Closed positions don't appear. So this report wouldn't include weekly puts. But the list of names feels familiar — and brings me back to some massive put orders we saw in Q1: Israel-Iran conflict: risk fully priced? *100k weekly puts bet NVDA below 170* If you've been following, you'll remember the relentless wave of semiconductor put prints back in

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Following the bullish 800 calls, SPY is now seeing a new wave of aggressive long positions — large blocks of deep OTM call options:$SPY 20271217 1095.0 CALL$  $SPY 20271217 1100.0 CALL$  $SPY 20271217 1110.0 CALL$  $SPY 20271217 1120.0 CALL$ . Total premium flow: under $8 million. These December 2027 expiries (1095, 1100, 1110, 1120 strikes) each saw 10,000 contracts opened on Wednesday, direction buys. These calls have deltas below 0.1 — e

$Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ The large put order $SOXL 20260612 170.0 PUT$  closed faster than expected — marking the end of this round of selling. The bears had hoped to push this down to the 10-day or even 20-day moving average. But dip buyers showed up in force, far outnumbering the panicked sellers. Expect more one-day pullbacks like this in the future — but not necessarily more follow-through. $Sony(SONY)$ Sony's base case: 25. Bull case: 30. On Monday, a 60k contract order hit the July 25 call $SONY 20260717 25.0 CALL$ . Another 9k were add

SOXL Why near-term? Because this pullback appears carefully orchestrated. On Tuesday, a large bearish order hit the triple-long semiconductor ETF: $SOXL 20260612 170.0 PUT$   — 17,000 contracts, over $40 million in premium. You can gauge conviction by the notional. At $40M+, this isn't a lottery ticket — it's a serious short. Large orders in leveraged ETFs are rare — they decay over time and don't behave well in slow grinding moves. When they show up, it signals an explosive move either way. Expiration is June 12, roughly 30 days out, implying a short, sharp correction — could last a week, maybe two. These trades tend to take profits quickly. So watch the 170 put

$SPY$ S&P 8,000 isn't just a random headline. It's backed by recent positioning — a number of far-dated call options at the 800 strike have seen significant volume: $SPY 20270319 800.0 CALL$ $SPY 20260930 800.0 CALL$ $SPY 20270617 800.0 CALL$  These were opened at different times: early April, mid-April, and just a couple of days ago. Looking at the expirations, no one expects this to happen overnight — Q3 at the earliest. But at this pace, I wouldn't be surprised if SPY hits 800 by June. The catalyst behind this surge is simple — and I've mentioned it before: Anthropic's revenue da