$NVDA$For some reason, institutions have modest expectations for NVIDIA's Q1 performance. Long calls were rolled ahead of the CES conference:Closed 50,000 contracts of the Feb 170 call $NVDA 20260220 170.0 CALL$ and rolled into buying 50,000 contracts of the Mar 160 call $NVDA 20260320 160.0 CALL$ .Not only is the strike price lower, but the expiration is also extended. The only plausible reason seems to be a clear market aversion to the supply chain closely tied to OpenAI.The Jan 185 call $NVDA 20260116 185.0 CALL$ saw 45,000 contracts opened, with mixed buy/sell flow.During the s
$NVDA$Expected to trade within the $170–185 range this week. After breaking above $180 on positive news, $185 will likely remain a tough resistance. Consider selling calls: $NVDA 20251226 187.5 CALL$ . A pullback to $175 is possible; consider selling puts on the dip: $NVDA 20251226 170.0 PUT$ .There's market chatter that NVDA is currently "cheap." Cheap it may be, but the persistent put openings still seem to harbor hopes of a drop to $160, suggesting ongoing consolidation and position-clearing.$TSLA$Given Tesla's price action and Musk's known tendencies around holidays, I suspect a push to $500 on the 24th or 26th, followed by a pullback—with the 24th
$CRWV$Insider block buying continues with 23,000 contracts opened, pushing total open interest to 100,000 contracts $CRWV 20260320 100.0 CALL$ . News-wise, CRWV has been selected for the US Department of Energy's "Project Genesis" to support national-level AI research. The block buying preceded the news.Another stock with massive block opening is APLD, with 65,300 contracts of the 2028 8 call $APLD 20280121 8.0 CALL$ traded, with a total premium value of $119 million.$ORCL$The news of TikTok landing on Oracle has relieved the market, easing concerns about who would pick up the cloud services pieces if OpenAI were to collapse.The bullish expectation is f
$MU$Despite Micron's strong earnings and disciplined capital expenditure, the core issue remains: capital still believes AI monetization can't keep up with the burn rate and is beginning to exit revenue-less projects, curbing overheated market sentiment.The impact of $OWL$ withdrawing support for $ORCL$ project financing is significant. For a $10B project to be abandoned just like that, the investors must have seen something.Coupled with the fact that $FRMI$ lost a major client last week, causing its stock to halve, even the least sensitive observer should sense that something is amiss.So, while Micron claims its future performance will continue to be AI-driven, whether that driving force will accelerate expansion or stagnate and contract is anyone's guess.However, Micron's 2026 capacity i
$MU$There's a sense of marginal capacity rationalization in the AI sector. Smaller companies that previously benefited from the spillover demand are now being questioned on whether their orders will materialize, as the market perceives a slowdown in expansion from major AI players. The declines in many newer cloud companies are largely due to this reason.At its core, it's because the market believes AI isn't generating profits—at least not enough to support the massive expenditures.However, Micron doesn't fall into the category of those smaller companies described above. Therefore, its stock likely won't experience a severe post-earnings crash, probably holding above the recent low of $190.Options flow shows someone opened a bear put spread: selling the 215 put and buying the 195 put, anti
$TSLA$This week's 500 call has an open interest of 110k contracts, meaning Tesla will likely struggle to break above $500 this week. While this initially seemed ideal for selling calls, a massive block trade caught my eye: $TSLA 20260220 600.0 CALL$ – 10,000 contracts of the Feb 600 call traded, with a total premium of ~$11.34 million.While the exact catalyst is unknown, looking at Tesla's call flow, the mid-term 520 call $TSLA 20260130 520.0 CALL$ saw 9,704 contracts opened, mostly on the buy side.While $600 is uncertain, there's a strong probability Tesla reaches $500 by Christmas. For a conservative approach, consider selling the put:
$NVDA$Institutions are highly confident in this week's downward trend, having filled out spreads across the entire $181–191 strike range. As a result, unless NVDA stays suppressed below $179 this week, there's a low probability of a significant short squeeze rally back to $185.The more likely scenario is a pullback to $170 first, potentially even below, followed by a rebound. After all, this is triple witching week, with $170 and $160 puts as key targets for expiration pressure. The drop presents an excellent opportunity to sell puts, with strikes at $170 or $165: $NVDA 20251219 170.0 PUT$ $NVDA 20251219 165.0 PUT$ .$SPY$SPY is set to follow a pattern o
$AVGO$ earnings were the polar opposite of Oracle's. While the standard financial metrics were outstanding, the backlog fell short of expectations, and the stock still dropped.A lower-than-expected backlog could stem from various factors, but the market is leaning towards interpreting it as a slowdown in investment. The next question is why investment is slowing—AI is still figuring out its monetization path. In simple terms, because it's not yet profitable, the pace of cash burn is moderating.Considering Broadcom supplies the current U.S. AI leader, Google, if even the leader is being cautious, other players likely are too. Therefore, a market pullback seems inevitable.The consensus from put activity suggests the stock will stay above $350, but the market's sell put strike preference is a
$ORCL$If OpenAI's commercialization capabilities were truly outstanding, Oracle's stock would likely tell a very different story with the same earnings data. That's the takeaway from this earnings report.Therefore, whether Oracle is a dip-buying candidate depends heavily on the progress of OpenAI's commercialization, or the emergence of another giant with a killer product that declares current server capacity utterly insufficient, capturing market imagination as a potential future Oracle customer replacing OpenAI.On Thursday's open, someone bought 10,000 contracts of the weekly 190 call $ORCL 20251212 190.0 PUT$ , with timing precision that is astonishing.Additionally, just before Wednesday's close, a buyer picked up 100,
$NVDA$A large player positioned for the H200 news with an unusual in-the-money sell put: $NVDA 20260116 187.0 PUT$ . Premium volume was ~$10 million, with 9,483 contracts opened.Typically, selling in-the-money puts is done only with high conviction that the stock will be at or above the strike price at expiration. This aligns with the earlier judgment for the Dec-Jan period: limited upside, but also resilient downside.While the trade rationale is understandable, it's worth noting such an unconventional block doesn't necessarily come from a seasoned trader.Contradicting this flow are other put openings, which still anticipate a pullback below $180. However, this remains consistent with the overall $170–200 range view.The m