To The Moon

People emphasize festive atmospheres during holidays, especially this year with Independence Day, Christmas, and Musk's birthday. Even without favorable conditions, they'll create conditions to push the market up. I'm truly amazed.Let me start with the important news: Chinese concept stocks have received several large orders, specifically on-exchange orders. $KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$ As shown in KWEB's Friday options opening details, there were many new positions exceeding 10,000 contracts, including 50,000 contracts each for March expiry calls at strikes 33 and 37!These options typically come in pairs forming hedged strategies to minimize decay, showing very institutional trading patterns.The three large orders were:Buy

On Friday, the triple witching day, VIX maintained high levels at market open.Tesla dropped by 6% in pre-market trading, making many eager for a bottom to start buying. However, lower-than-expected PCE data helped stabilize market sentiment. Despite being triple witching day, put option activity suggests bears aren't making big bets. Wednesday's steep decline likely won't repeat; focus should be on next week. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ SPY saw many long-dated sell calls opened Thursday, with 2026 expiration strikes above 750, which isn't particularly relevant for current trading decisions.The most notable put option activity shows a clear range, with the top two positions being part of a large order suggesting SPY may gradually approach 577

TL;DR: Next week's SPY trading range: 590-580.The title is a joke - I think it's unfair to blame Powell for the plunge.Wall Street is playing innocent by putting all blame on the old man. This plunge wasn't exactly unexpected; it had been brewing for a while. Institutions had been selling NVIDIA calls for two weeks at 140, waiting for a pullback since early December - they just needed an excuse for the plunge.The upcoming president's preferences are crystal clear - whoever triggers a stock market crash would be seen as opposing the future president.As usual, the FOMC meeting became the convenient trigger for the market selloff. Wall Street is using this opportunity for market correction, and after the adjustment, growth will resume its normal pattern.Regarding specific policies, the dot pl

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ The bears have finally arrived!On Monday, SPY saw large put buying: 20,000 contracts of March 21, 2025 puts with strike price 565 $SPY 20250321 565.0 PUT$ .Calculating from the strike price suggests a 5.8% pullback. However, there's another interpretation - even if it doesn't reach 565 (less than 5.8% drop), a panic sell-off could spike volatility, making these puts profitable.The correction range will determine its duration. A 5.8% pullback would likely take over two weeks, similar to April. A sub-5% correction could complete in a week, like September.To clarify, SPY typically sees spread trades (call or put spreads) since index movements are more

Unexpectedly, after six months, we witnessed another earnings report squeeze on Friday with $AVGO$. With two cases now in hand, let's analyze and summarize the characteristics of this special trading pattern for future reference.Why should we master identifying this pattern? Because of the massive profits. The Friday closing末日call $AVGO 20241213 215.0 CALL$  saw a 3489% increase - this is true small-bet-big-return trading.The beauty of this pattern is that after Friday's surge, the stock continues to rise on Monday. If you missed Friday's rally, don't worry - you can enter at any time during trading hours, as the stock price will continue to rise next week.What is an Earnings Report Friday Squeeze?This is my informal nam

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Today's options opening data revealed something interesting. Institutions expect NVIDIA's stock price for the week of December 20 to be lower than the market consensus. Institutions expect it below 141, while open interest data shows market expectations between 140-150:Sell $NVDA 20241220 141.0 CALL$ Buy $NVDA 20241220 149.0 CALL$ The overall market expects NVIDIA to likely trade between 140-150 during December 20 week, while institutions expect it below 141, with a small chance of 141-149.When such contradictions arise, which side is more credible? From a sensitivity perspective, overall option

Chinese ADRs are showing significant options activity, with diverging views on recent market movements. $X-trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares Fund(ASHR)$ On Wednesday, someone opened a position of 100,000 contracts in February 2025 29 calls $ASHR 20250221 29.0 CALL$ , while another bought 25,000 contracts of January 2025 27 puts $ASHR 20250117 27.0 PUT$ .Both options' transaction details show automated order placement, not floor trading.$KWEB$ options mainly saw new open interest in calls, with floor trading showing a bullish spread strategy, direction unclear:Opening

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Friends, small short sellers have surrendered and rolled their positions. Expect a pullback or halt in gains starting today.Institutions are closing 390-420 calls expiring this week and rolling to next week's 440-500 calls:Buy $TSLA 20241220 440.0 CALL$ Sell $TSLA 20241220 500.0 CALL$ Today is ideal for selling calls, but naked calls on Tesla are very risky without holding shares. I'll use a spread strategy, choosing the same strike price as institutions but expiring this week:Sell $TSLA 20241213 440.0 CALL$ , Buy

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ For those holding shares, consider hedging with sell calls in the near term. Based on opening positions, this week's closing price should be between 137-145.On Monday, NVIDIA fell 2% at open due to alleged violations of China's anti-monopoly laws. This has little real impact - it's just an excuse for a decline, like being fired for entering the office left foot first.However, the pullback isn't groundless, so hedging is advisable.Monday's options activity was dominated by sellers for both calls and puts.This week's 138 and 137 puts were mainly sold, and two January 2025 120 puts $NVDA 20250117 120.0 PUT$  and

Last week, I posted three consecutive threads tracking unusual options activity in Chinese ADRs. Below is a summary of key options positions for several notable Chinese stocks. Based on the strike prices, the first target price has been reached at market open. The endpoint of this rally can be referenced through the details of large order closures & roll-overs, which I will continue to track. $Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X Shares(YINN)$ $YINN 20260116 27.0 CALL$ , 179K contracts open interest$YINN 20241220 33.0 CALL$ , 39K contracts open interest