To The Moon

Will the dark clouds that have been hanging over $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ for the longest time ever, going to dissipate?

The gloomy outlook has gone on long enough, bordering on tired already.

Has NIO gradually morphed into an unrecognized - long on talk and short on delivery creature?

I am fatigue over its “all smoke and no fire” stance that NIO has been pulling all these while.

With the release of its May 2023 EV delivery statistics (see below tabulation). its kind of “done” it for me, at least for now.

Consistent under delivered for Apr & May. Not a pretty sight.

NIO - 2023 YTD - EV delivery

• It is official.

• NIO has delivered 6,155 EVs in May 2023; down -7.55% from April’s delivery (already a poor showing).

Back in Mar 2023, NIO’s C-suite management CFO that made the “colossal” promise to media.

No coercion from the press or anyone. It was a voluntary divulge.

Referring to the Excel table (again):

(1) Based off 2022 delivery.

• NIO has fulfilled almost 37% of last year’s delivery.

• It remains a challenge to deliver another 13% in June 2023 (alone) so that 50% of delivery coincide with the half year mark.

(2) Based off CEO’s promised 250,000 target.

• NIO has fulfilled < 18% of target.

• It has 205,228 EVs to be demanded and delivered in 6 months (Jun to Dec).

• This works out to be 34,205 EVs per month or 8,552 EVs per week.

• Looking at NIO’s 2023 monthly delivery track record, its reliability to meet its target falls to 50% only. “Food for thoughts”?

Although unspoken, I am beginning to wonder if the on-going price-war initiated by Tesla is taking a toll on NIO?

If not, then the next logical conclusion would be slowing or declining demand due to price point.

**Note : China’s golden week starts on 01 Oct (Sun) and ends on 07 Oct (Sun). On the run up to this national holiday and a few days after, output will be affected.

(3) What else are making me “nervous”?

1. NIO’s lack of transparency on where its EVs are produced. In the past it would update whether the SUV is manufactured off its JAC-NIO factory or its newly constructed Neopark. Since then, it has gone all radio silent.

2. It will be surprising if all 6 models of NIO EVs are rolling off its JAC-NIO, Heifei factory. This implies its Neopark’s plant is a “white elephant”.

3. No further updates on its foreign outposts apart from (a) Norway (b) The Netherlands (c) Germany (d) Sweden and (e) Denmark? Does this mean “no further progress?” Radio silence again!

4. No sales or rental updates on how popular or un-popular NIO’s EVs are in Europe. Why the secrecy?

• Do mark your calendar for Fri, 9 Jun 2023.

• NIO will report its unaudited financial results for Q1 2023 before US markets opens.

• Earnings should set the tone on how its “miserable” stock price will continue to perform for this coming Friday and into remaining 2023.

• Who knows maybe the CFO will take the opportunity to announce a reduction revision on its deliverables?

• Who knows what else these “corporate raiders” have up their sleeves?

• Lastly, if “money burn rate” has been reduced “drastically”- then this might be the saving-grace factor for this EV maker that has a “right” vision. The only thing left is to muster its energy and focus on realizing it; just like BYD (without Mr Buffett’s seal of approval, it is still gaining from strength to strength)..

• Do you think NIO will be able to meet its 250,000 EV units’ deliverables?

• Do you think NIO still have a future inside and outside of China?

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