EL fell to the level of 2017! Will you buy the products in Black Friday?

Tiger_comments
2023-11-02

$Estee Lauder(EL)$ plummeted 15% after FY24 Q1 financial report fell short of expectations. The plunge made el’s stock price back to the level in 2017.

  • Net sales: $3.52 bln, narrowly missing estimates.

  • Slow recovery of prestige beauty in mainland China

  • Lowered its outlook for full-year 2024: Expects sales growth to range between down 2% to up 1%.

However, $e.l.f. Beauty Inc.(ELF)$ , the cosmetics company also released earnings yesterday, saw sales jump 76% yoy and raised its full-year guidance for a second quarter in a row.

Priced at $10-$20, ELF’s products are 1/5 of $Estee Lauder(EL)$’s prices.

Do you think EL can save its sales by price cut or not?

Is this environment means low-pricing products can grow better?

What’s your skincare and cosmetics choice for the upcoming Black Friday?

What’s your target price for bottoming out EL?

Leave your comments and repost to win tiger coins!

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  • icycrystal
    ·2023-11-03
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    $Estee Lauder(EL)$ stock has somewhat plunged quite a lot. it's at its 52 week low range. I guess marketing would help with sales though [USD] [USD] [USD] has to be paid to the marketing. but if it helps increase sales then why not. alternatively, having promotions would help too or perhaps come up with attractive membership privileges. just hope the company will do well soon. after all, it's a company that has somewhat a long history. target price perhaps 105 to 110 [Thinking] [Thinking] [Thinking]
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    • ShyonReplying toicycrystal: 
      Thanks for sharing!
      2023-11-03
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    • Universe宇宙Replying toicycrystal: 
      [ShakeHands]
      2023-11-03
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    • koolgal: 
      Thanks for sharing my friend 😍😍😍
      2023-11-03
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  • koolgal
    ·2023-11-03
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    🌟🌟🌟A Woman's Face is her Fortune. Estee Lauder is the quintessential brand that women all over the world use.  It is in 150 countries and is the world's 2nd largest cosmetic company after L'Oréal.   It all started with Estee Lauder and her husband in 1946 and today it is still run by the 2nd and 3rd generation of the Lauder family.

    At the current price which is down 54% year todate, it is a bargain.  Estee Lauder is a cosmetic powerhouse with 24 various brands from Estee Lauder, Clinique, Mac, Origins and many more.

    I am a long time user of Estee Lauder.  I love the high quality beauty products it offers especially Beautiful, the Eau De Parfum and Night Repair which helps to reduce wrinkles. 

    Estee Lauder normally offers Free Gift with purchase.  That's when I usually buy my products.   

    Estee Lauder has a wide brand moat as its loyal customers like me will find it difficult to switch to cheaper brands after using it for so many years. 

    So Estee Lauder is a Buy for me as it will continue to grow exponentially in the future with new products and new markets expansion especially in Asia.  

    The stock market is a voting machine in the short term but a weighing g machine in the long term.  As Warren Buffett likes to say When there is fear in the markets it is time to be greedy!

    @Tiger_comments  @TigerStars  @MillionaireTiger  @CaptainTiger  @TigerClub  @Tiger_SG  

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  • hd87
    ·2023-11-03
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    I think EL can save its sales by price cut on short term basis if the company is willing to do so. low-pricing products does not necessary grow better. Quality matters too. My skincare is Cetaphil and I might change it after finishing it. The target price for bottoming out might be $95-100. It might go down further too.
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  • Shyon
    ·2023-11-03
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    Come and join the discussion guys @koolgal @rL @Universe宇宙 @icycrystal @b1uesky @Aqa @GoodLife99
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    • Universe宇宙: 
      [ShakeHands]
      2023-11-03
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    • b1uesky: 
      thk for sharing
      2023-11-03
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  • TimothyX
    ·2023-11-03
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    $雅詩蘭黛(EL)$2014財年Q1財務報告低於預期後暴跌15%。暴跌使el的股價回到了2017年的水平。
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  • Khikho
    ·2023-11-03
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    日薄西山了吗？$雅诗兰黛(EL)$2014财年Q1财务报告低于预期后暴跌15%。暴跌使el的股价回到了2017年的水平。
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  • LMSunshine
    ·2023-11-03
    TOP
    🐯🐯🐯 Come share your thoughts for 🐯🪙 I’m not so hopeful for $Estee Lauder(EL)$ as price cut can affect branding reputation. Also, there hasn’t been much new innovative products that are cutting age or attractive. Even with low pricing, I’m not sure how much more customers they can attract. Hence EL is not a stock that I would buy. Thanks loads @Tiger_comments ❣️
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  • Shyon
    ·2023-11-03
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    Estee Lauder! Surprisingly such a good stock can drop back to the level in 2017. I think by doing a price cut, this can probably save the company. Inflation is the headache thing and will reduce people rely on the luxury products. As long as the price reduces and become more affordable, I think many consumers will tend to switch to Estee Lauder again, especially at this period where the economy is not really that good. The price hike can be reintroduced again when the market recovers. My skincare and cosmetics choice will not be Estee Lauder until the price become cheaper, now my top choices are still Khiels and Clarin!
    For the target price, I think 100 is a good catch level with 123 as the short term price target.
    Would you make Estee Lauder great again? Or you prefer the brands? Haha.

    @TigerStars @Tiger_comments @TigerClub @CaptainTiger @MillionaireTiger

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  • nomadic_m
    ·2023-11-03
    TOP
    EL could take advantage of the lipstick effect by spending more on marketing campaigns that promote their less costly but still luxurious & superior quality products. black Friday/Christmas/new years/valentine's day are all back to back events where consumers go crazy on shopping & gifting

    meanwhile, it's shopping spree for retail investors like us. low chance for a legendary brand like Estee lauder to lose its mark in the 2020s. good luck to all!

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  • highhand
    ·2023-11-03
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    check historical PE for last 5 years. given the bad outlook, better to wait till PE reaches lower limit before buying or selling cash secured puts to get stock. at those levels, will be relatively safe as downside risk is low
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  • setia100
    ·2023-11-02
    Bear in mind, China's GDP forecast has been toned down. China Chinese love Luxury goods. When their disposable income shrinks, so do the luxury goods consumptions. EL had been enjoying good sales for the last 6 years. Now, they need to look away from China's market to gear up the sales like India 😁
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  • StickyRice
    ·2023-11-05




    Estee Lauder's overreliance on the skincare segment raises concerns about its risk profile. While the company is expected to benefit from a recovering Asian travel retail industry, it may still face headwinds from factors such as a consumer spending slowdown and increased competition. The company's margin profile is another concern, with gross margins declining over the years and hitting decade lows. Operating expenses, particularly in advertising and marketing, have grown significantly. Looking ahead, Estee Lauder's near-term and long-term outlooks suggest only moderate growth. With shares currently trading at a P/E ratio of over 35x and the risk-reward profile appearing unfavorable, investors are advised to exercise caution. $Estee Lauder(EL)$
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  • JohnL
    ·2023-11-04
    It has wide moat and I see this as set back caused by external macro factor. The products and margin seem ok. This is probably the good time for bargain hunters
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  • GoodLife99
    ·2023-11-03
    hmm...aft the lipstick effect article from TB, perhaps EL will recover close to year end/CNY/Vday festival?
    Worth of thinking for long term investors!

    Tigers, will you buy $Estee Lauder(EL)$ ?

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  • Aqa
    ·2023-11-03
    💋💄Very sure $Estee Lauder(EL)$ can benefit from higher ssles by price cut. Women need to look good even in bad times. EL should just concentrate on lipsticks because that is the most basic must-have item for beauty.
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  • AliceSam
    ·2023-11-03
    化妆品护肤品之类的公司，现在的竞争还是非常激烈，除非真的做得非常好，不然很难出圈的
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  • WonderElephant
    ·2023-11-03
    $Estee Lauder(EL)$ too atas for me already. I’m not a branded good person. I use skincare from supermarkets! Cheap and good! Thanks @Tiger_comments for Tiger coins!
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  • intheloop
    ·2023-11-03
    It used to be one of my favorite brands. The industry and market trends have changed drastically in today's macro environment,  re-thinking business and marketing strategies is not a simple matter. EL definitely has a lot in its table to strategize, execute, and implement to emerge and regain its market position.  An established brand with rich history, certainly hope it can do magic again.
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  • JWC
    ·2023-11-03
    TOP
    As long as women want to look beautiful EL will survive. May have to wait awhile more for recovery.  EL depends much on China market. They may need more promotion to garner more sales.
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  • Kok
    ·2023-11-03
    Their products are still awesome and there are no issues with the company. Headwinds are temporary and this is a great chance to get them on the cheap
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