October Effect or October High: Which is More Possible?

Tiger_comments
2024-09-30

The "October Effect" is considered one of the most notable periods on the financial calendar, as two major U.S. stock market crashes—October 1929 and October 1987—occurred during this month.

Historically, October has shown significant volatility, with the Dow Jones experiencing the highest intraday swings since 1896.

According to LPL Financial, since 1950, the market has seen greater than 1% fluctuations in October, more than any other month. $S&P 500(.SPX)$

Although September has recorded the most negative returns over the past 90 years, the events that triggered the 1929 crash and the 1907 panic actually began in September or earlier.

The 1929 stock market crash, which started on October 24, became fully disastrous by October 28 and 29, leading to the loss of $30 billion in wealth within two weeks—equivalent to the U.S.’s total spending during World War I. It took until 1954 for the market to recover to pre-crash levels.

Similarly, "Black Monday" on October 19, 1987, saw $DJIA(.DJI)$ drop 22.6% in one day, erasing $500 billion in value globally. There were no apparent triggers for this crash, and theories like herd behavior and market inefficiency continue to be debated.

But the market has repeatedly hit new highs even in the historically weakest month of September, breaking the September curse.

Can the market break the October effect this time?

Are you ready for October effect or October high?

Which is more possible to happen?

What's your trading plan for October?

Avoid high volatility or embrace it?

Leave your comments or join the topic to win tiger coins~

# Farewell October: Are You Ready for the Best Month?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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  • MHh
    ·2024-09-30
    TOP
    Unfortunately this is the month leading up to the US presidential elections where both candidates would have different effects on the various stocks. Also, the market has rallied crazy in the last month. Logically, it is hard to think otherwise why this month would not be a volatile one. I expect many to take profits and also flight to safety before Nov. I will be one of them[Chuckle]. Cash is still safer in the pockets and much needed to buy at the next dip.
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  • RXU
    ·2024-09-30
    Better to be on defensive. it scares me a little when the big boys ask retail to buy buy buy! and everyone is feeling euphoria from recent marlet highs. It just keep rallying!

    I expect the as the month leading up to the US eelection, there might be a  flight to safety first before the sign of apparent presidential winner becomes clear. Hoping if it happens, I am focus and will buy at the next dip.
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  • Success88
    ·2024-09-30
    从历史上看，由于许多公司在11月发布第三季度财报，10月份的市场交易量将比平时更大..看涨多于看跌。随着利率下降。由于汇率不同，公司报告将更高
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  • DaveaPhoenix
    ·2024-09-30
    The "October Effect" suggests markets may crash in October, driven by past events like 1929 and 1987, but it’s more psychological than based on consistent data. October can be volatile, but it also presents opportunities for gains, especially after September downturns.

    This year, market direction depends on several factors, such as Fed rate decisions, earnings reports, inflation data, and geopolitical risks. While an "October high" is possible with strong earnings and favorable policy moves, negative economic data or rising global tensions could trigger declines.

    Traders can either embrace volatility through short-term trades and technical analysis or avoid it by focusing on long-term goals and maintaining a diversified portfolio. Proper risk management is key, using tools like stop-loss orders or options. For long-term investors, October’s volatility might offer buying opportunities in quality stocks at lower prices.

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  • icycrystal
    ·2024-09-30
    TOP

    根據歷史，10月份表現出顯著的波動性，道瓊斯指數經歷了自1896年以來最大的盤中波動。

    如果趨勢上升，就很好，如果趨勢下降，就有機會以好價格購買好公司...

    @Shyon @GoodLife99 @Universe宇宙 @rL @Aqa @koolgal @LMSunshine @SPACE ROCKET @HelenJanet @TigerGPT

    這次市場能否打破十月效應？


    你準備好迎接十月效應或十月高點了嗎？


    哪個更有可能發生？


    你十月份的交易計劃是什麼？


    避免高波動還是擁抱它？


    發表評論或加入話題贏老虎幣~

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    • TigerAI: 

      作爲一名人工智能金融分析師，我可以提供一些關於10月效應和10月可能的交易策略的見解。十月效應是指10月份經歷的歷史高位波動和市場下跌。雖然10月份在過去確實表現出了巨大的波動性，但值得注意的是，歷史模式並不能保證未來的表現。

      這次市場能夠打破十月效應，但很難有確定性的預測。經濟指標、企業盈利和地緣政治發展等各種因素都會影響市場趨勢。因此，在制定10月份的交易計劃之前，考慮對當前市場狀況的全面分析是至關重要的。

      關於交易策略，不同的投資者根據其風險承受能力和投資目標可能會有不同的做法。以下是需要考慮的兩種可能的策略：

      避免高波動性：一些投資者可能會選擇採取更保守的方法，通過分散投資組合、避免投機性交易以及專注於基本面穩健的更穩定、成熟的公司來最大限度地減少高波動性的風險。該策略旨在在市場波動加劇期間保護資本並限制潛在損失。

      擁抱高波動性：另一方面，一些投資者可能將高波動性視爲獲利機會。他們可能會在市場低迷時期積極尋找被低估的公司，認爲它們是有吸引力的買入機會。這種策略需要更高的風險承受能力和對個股的徹底分析，以識別基本面良好、可能復甦並提供長期回報的公司。

      值得注意的是，在高波動時期進行交易可能具有挑戰性且不可預測，因此制定明確的風險管理計劃至關重要。還建議及時瞭解市場新聞、經濟指標和公司特定事件，以做出明智的投資決策。

      請記住，投資總是有風險的，仔細評估您的風險承受能力並在需要時尋求專業建議非常重要。這些信息僅用於教育目的，不應被視爲投資建議。

      2024-09-30
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  • Shyon
    ·2024-09-30
    TOP
    October is anticipated to continue being bullish for the stock market. Historical patterns suggest that despite the October Effect, current market dynamics and economic indicators may support upward momentum. Positive investor sentiment and favorable corporate earnings could contribute to breaking away from past volatility.

    For me, the trading plan for October is to ride the uptrend until an exit signal appears. Establishing clear parameters for exit signals will be crucial, whether based on technical indicators, volume changes, or significant news developments. Utilizing options or other hedging strategies can help manage risk while still participating in potential upward movements.

    Overall, the outlook is optimistic, with a strategic focus on navigating the market carefully and adapting to evolving conditions.
    @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerGPT

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    • TigerAI: 

      As an AI financial analyst, I cannot predict future market movements with certainty. However, I can provide some insights based on historical data and current market dynamics.

      The "October Effect" refers to the historical tendency for increased market volatility and negative returns during the month of October. This is primarily due to significant market crashes that occurred in October, such as the 1929 and 1987 crashes. However, it is important to note that historical patterns are not definitive indicators of future performance.

      Despite the October Effect, it is worth considering the current market dynamics and economic indicators that may support upward momentum. Positive investor sentiment and favorable corporate earnings can contribute to a breakaway from past volatility. It seems that you are planning to ride the uptrend until an exit signal appears.

      Establishing clear parameters for exit signals is crucial, whether based on technical indicators, volume changes, or significant news developments. This will help you manage risks and make informed decisions. Additionally, utilizing options or other hedging strategies can be beneficial in managing risk while participating in potential upward movements.

      It is important to approach the market with caution and adapt to evolving conditions. Monitoring market trends, staying informed about news developments, and being flexible with your trading plan can help you navigate the market more effectively. Moreover, diversifying your portfolio and considering long-term investment strategies rather than short-term speculation can help mitigate risks.

      Please keep in mind that investing in the stock market carries risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. It is always recommended to consult with a financial advisor or do thorough research before making any investment decisions.

      (Note: The information provided here is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.)

      Let me know if there's anything specific you would like me to assist you with.

      2024-09-30
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  • SPACE ROCKET
    ·2024-09-30
    Waiting for BTC and it's associated stocks to take flight.
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  • fir3tiger
    ·2024-09-30
    yup it is possible
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  • Cadi Poon
    ·2024-09-30
    儘管9月份創下了過去90年來最負回報的記錄，但引發1929年崩盤和1907年恐慌的事件實際上始於9月份或更早。

    1929年的股市崩盤始於10月24日，到10月28日和29日已經變得完全災難性，導致兩週內財富損失300億美元——相當於美國在第一次世界大戰期間的總支出。直到1954年，市場才恢復到崩盤前的水平。

    同樣，1987年10月19日的“黑色星期一”，看到$道指(.DJI)$一天內下跌22.6%，全球市值蒸發5000億美元。這次崩盤沒有明顯的誘因，羊羣行爲和市場低效率等理論仍在爭論中。

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  • Universe宇宙
    ·2024-09-30
    @TigerGPT what happen to the stock market during October for the past US election years? grab data from Internet if needed. thank you, buddy.
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    • TigerAI: 

      Based on the news articles I found, here is some information on how the stock market has performed during October in past US election years:

      In an article by Visual Capitalist, it is highlighted that the performance of the U.S. stock market in election years varies. They provide an infographic showing the market performance in each year of a presidential term, including election years. You can find the infographic here.

        

      Yahoo Finance also discusses how presidential elections affect the stock market in an article. They explore the historical impact of elections on the market and provide insights on the topic. You can read the article here.

        

      Quartz presents a visual history of how presidential elections affect US financial markets. They have charts that showcase the impact of the last six presidential elections on various markets, including treasuries and gold. You can view the charts and read the article here.

        

      Please note that these articles provide historical data and analysis, but the performance of the stock market can vary depending on various factors and circumstances. It is important to conduct thorough research and consider multiple factors when making investment decisions.

      Unfortunately, I couldn't find any specific information or news related to the stock market performance during October in the years of the US presidential election you mentioned (2016 and 2020). However, the articles mentioned above can provide you with a broader understanding of how elections have historically affected the stock market.

      Remember that investing in the stock market involves risk, and it's important to carefully consider your investment goals and seek professional advice if needed.

      2024-09-30
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  • TimothyX
    ·2024-09-30
    “十月效應”被認爲是金融日曆上最引人注目的時期之一，因爲美國股市兩次重大崩盤——1929年10月和1987年10月——都發生在這個月。

    從歷史上看，10月份表現出顯著的波動性，道瓊斯指數經歷了自1896年以來最高的盤中波動。

    根據LPL Financial的數據，自1950年以來，市場在10月份出現了大於1%的波動，超過了其他任何一個月。$S&P 500(.SPX)$

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  • TheStrategist
    ·2024-10-01
    get ready to Rocktober or Uptober man 🤑🤑🤑🤑
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  • Aqa
    ·2024-09-30
    [OMG][OMG]今年十月崩盘来了吗？从历史上看，十月总是有很大的波动性。今年的美国总统大选正在升温。这场竞赛及其影响在美国和海外投资者的脑海中显得尤为突出。美国总统选举与美国股市大盘表现之间存在不同程度的相关性。我们在进行交易时应该格外谨慎。最好关注更长远的问题：经济和商业基本面。
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  • ECLC
    ·2024-10-02
    绕过了“九月诅咒”，为可能的“十月效应”做好了准备。预计波动性较高；更多的机会和更高的风险。
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  • Universe宇宙
    ·2024-10-02
    @TigerGPT first day of october stock market down, what is going on? october bear awaken?
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    • TigerAI: 

      The stock market was down on the first day of October. Here are some possible reasons for the movement:

      Tensions in the Middle East: The escalation of conflicts between Israel and Iran has triggered significant selling pressure. Investors are moving towards safer assets like bonds, gold, oil, and the US Dollar.

        

      Market Reaction to Job Reports and Federal Reserve Comments: Wall Street's main indexes opened lower on the first trading day of October. This was influenced by multiple job reports expected during the week and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who pushed back against market expectations for outsized interest rate cuts.

        

      Historical Trends: October has a historical reputation for being a volatile month in the stock market. Significant crashes, such as the 1929 stock market crash and "Black Monday" in 1987, occurred during October. However, it is important to note that past performance is not indicative of future performance.

        

      Market Catalysts: The upcoming US presidential election in November is expected to be a market catalyst. Additionally, recent factors like the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the proposed stimulus by the Chinese authorities can influence market movements.

        

      Considering these factors, it is challenging to predict with certainty what October will hold for the markets in 2024. Investors may choose to either avoid high volatility or embrace it based on their trading strategies and risk tolerance.

      Please note that the information provided is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing in the stock market carries risks, and it is important to conduct thorough research and consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

      2024-10-02
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  • Mrzorro
    ·2024-10-03
    我猜随着降息和美国大选的进行，今年10月将是10月高点..大多数公司报告，市场似乎🚀🚀🚀甚至会出现高波动，但我相信许多机会也会出现。好公司好价格？让我们看看[守财奴][守财奴][守财奴]准备坐过山车去月球🌙
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  • highhand
    ·2024-10-04
    Oct will be higher than Sep but there will be volatility still. However, if you notice the retracements are getting smaller and smaller since Aug and Sep. that means lower lows, so we are going higher. S&P previous highs is acting like support as we break into a new high for S&P... just buy good stocks on dips and wait for new highs.
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  • nomadic_m
    ·2024-10-04
    Trading strategy for navigating October's election-driven volatility involves a dual-pronged approach. We will lock in profits on satellite positions, trimming exposure to high-risk assets, while simultaneously identifying opportunistic entry points to buy the dip on core holdings with strong fundamentals. This tactical shift will also involve adjusting position sizing, tightening stop-losses, and selectively allocating capital to quality stocks exhibiting resilience. By balancing risk management with strategic buying, we aim to capitalize on market fluctuations and maximize returns amidst the uncertainty.
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  • Tiger_Contra
    ·2024-09-30

    Awesome October comes?here is a tool for SG Tigers only to make your investments more efficient.

    Join now to open a CBA today and Enjoy SGD 20,000 for unlimited and enlarge your profit taking from US, HK and SGX Equities or ETFS. Find out more here.

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  • icycrystal
    ·2024-09-30

    based on history, October has shown significant volatility, with the Dow Jones experiencing the highest intraday swings since 1896.

    if trend up, good, if trend down, an opportunity to buy good companies at a good price...

    Can the market break the October effect this time?


    Are you ready for October effect or October high?


    Which is more possible to happen?


    What's your trading plan for October?


    Avoid high volatility or embrace it?


    Leave your comments or join the topic to win tiger coins~

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