CPI, Bank Earnings, Rate Cut: Will Market Collapse Like 2008 or Push Higher?
As the stock market $DJIA(.DJI)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ hits record highs more than 40 times this year, there are concerns that history might repeat itself and another financial crisis could occur.
Will the market repeat things in 2007?
On September 18, 2024, the Fed made a 50bps rate cut, exceeding expectations despite solid economic data. This mirrors the 2007 rate cut, after which markets rallied for three weeks, reaching an all-time high on October 9, 2007.
Similarly, after the 2024 cut, markets rallied for three weeks, and the S&P closed at an all-time high on October 9, 2024.
US election brings both uncertainty and potential opportunities.
However, some investors believe that because of the U.S. elections in November, the market won’t crash this year and could even see a significant rally in November and December.
Goldman Sachs released a report, raising the 12-month target for the S&P 500 from 6,000 to 6,300 points, and the year-end target from 5,600 to 6,000 points.
Will the latest CPI data shift market expectations regarding further rate cuts?
The September CPI will be released tonight at 8:30 PM.
Yesterday’s release of the FOMC minutes showed a hawkish tone, suggesting that large rate cuts may not become the norm.
Some participants preferred a 25bps rate cut, which could indicate internal division. The Fed stressed that the 50bps cut does not signal a promise for future reductions.
Bank earnings reports on Friday will provide new guidance for the broader market.
The Financials sector will be in focus, with nearly 50% of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ companies from this sector set to report Q3 earnings, including major banks like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo.
The sector is expected to see a slight year-over-year earnings decline of -0.4%, driven mainly by the Banks industry, which is forecasted to report a -12% earnings drop. Excluding Banks, the sector would show a 6.9% earnings growth.
With so many things coming up, will you take profit or stay firm with your holdings?
Bulls or bears: what’s your stance?
Will S&P hit 6000 by the year end?
Can you find similarities between 2024 and 2007?
Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins!
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Similarly, after the 2024 cut, markets rallied for three weeks, and the S&P closed at an all-time high on October 9, 2024.
some investors believe that because of the U.S. elections in November, the market won’t crash this year and could even see a significant rally in November and December.
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With so many things coming up, will you take profit or stay firm with your holdings?
Bulls or bears: what’s your stance?
Will S&P hit 6000 by the year end?
Can you find similarities between 2024 and 2007?
Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins!
同樣，在2024年降息後，市場連續三週上漲，標準普爾指數P於2024年10月9日收於歷史新高。
該行業的盈利預計將同比小幅下降-0.4%，這主要是由銀行業推動的，預計銀行業的盈利將下降-12%。不包括銀行，該行業的盈利將增長6.9%。
In terms of strategy, taking profits may be prudent if you've already seen substantial gains, but staying firm with your holdings could capitalize on further upside potential. Overall, I lean towards a bullish stance given the current momentum and historical parallels. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$