To The Moon

In my Mon, 01 Sep 2025 post (click here ! for details, help to Report ok) I have mentioned the 4 jobs reports (and a few others) that will provide a clearer picture on the state of the US economy.

Good news! I have pulled the reports together in one place as essential reading, because the state of US economy will always ‘affect’ the US stock market, one way or another overtime.

Due to real estate challenge, my post will come in bite-size instalments for easy digestion.

Regardless which post you first read, look for the other - to get the complete picture.

You owe yourself to do that !

S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI report.

On Tue, 02 Sep 2025, the “final” S&P Global US manufacturing PMI report was released. (see below)

It stood at 53.0 in August 2025, down slightly from preliminary estimate of 53.3 but up from July 2025’s 49.8.

The reading signaled the strongest improvement in operating conditions since May 2022, with production rising at the fastest pace in more than 3 years, while new orders increased for an 8th straight month.

With that, US manufacturing sector is poised to provide a boost to the US economy in the third quarter.

However, if one performs further analysis — Manufacturing upturn was due to factories increasing their warehouse inventories due to worries about future price increase and supply shortage, stroked by uncertainty over tariffs. which purchasing managers linked to higher input costs for factories.

Input prices also rose sharply, marking the 2nd-largest increase in 3 years, partly due to tariffs.

Companies are likely to pass these higher costs on to customers by raising prices.

Net, net manufacturing PMI seems to be good news for US economy but not for US consumers.

Jobs Opening & Labour Turnover Surveys (JOLTs).

For July 2025, job openings fell to the lowest level in 10 months, hitting 7.181 million vacancies. (see above)

This marks the 2nd consecutive monthly decline and was lower than expected 7.380 million openings.

Over the month, both hires and total separations were unchanged at 5.3 million. Within separations, both quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) were unchanged.

Realistically speaking, US job openings has been on the decline since 2022, while ‘layoffs & discharges’ are bubbling up gradually towards the 2 million mark. (see above)

ADP Non-Farm Payroll.

On Thu, 04 Sep 2025, US private sector non-farm payroll report was released. (see below)

According to ADP, US private-sector hiring rose less than expected in August 2025 and significantly cooled from the prior month.

Private payrolls increased by just 54,000, well short of the 75,000 estimate from economists polled by Dow Jones.

It was also down from July 2025’s upwards revised 106,000 jobs.

The report adds to an already concerning picture on US labour market.

Jobless Claims.

Thursday also saw weekly release of US jobless claims and continuing claims reports.

(1) Weekly Claims.

For week ending 30 Aug 2025, US weekly jobless claims jumped by +8,000 from previous week (229,000) to 237,000 — the most in over 2 months.

It was firmly above market expectations that they would inch higher to 230,000.. (see below)

Economists have squarely blamed US President's sweeping import tariffs and an immigration crackdown that are hampering hiring at construction sites and restaurants.

The unsettled economic environment, that stemmed from US protectionist trade policy has, however, left businesses reluctant to increase headcount.

(2) Continuing Claims.

That hesitancy to hire means people who have been laid off have difficulty landing new opportunities. (see below)

For week ending 23 Aug 2025, the number of people filing for continuing claims, slipped by -4,000 to 1.940 million, the US Labour Department report showed.

US continuing claims fell for a 2nd week, the least in 5 months and below expectations of 1.96 million despite remaining well above averages from before April 2025.

These numbers echoed softening of US labour market, a tone that was consistent with the ADP non-farm payroll report. (see above)

S&P Final US Services PMI.

The final readings of S&P US Services PMI report was out on Thu, 04 Sep 2025. (see below)

For August 2025, the S&P Global US Services PMI (final readings) posted 54.5, down from August’s preliminary readings of 55.4 and July’s 55.7.

Nonetheless it still marked, growth of US service sector output (as long as reading is >50).

Higher levels of business activity have now been recorded on a continuous monthly basis since February 2023.

Moreover, August’s index reading was the 2nd highest of 2025 so far.

Underpinning the rise in Services PMI was the general uplift in demand by service providers, especially amongst those operating in financial services.

While gains for consumer service providers have been held back by worries about (a) tariffs and (b) uncertain business climate, that also hurt international demand.

Overall, new export orders fell slightly in August, marking the 5th straight monthly drop.

Just to iterate the importance of services, it accounts for about 70% of US gross domestic product (GDP), making the sector the dominant source of US economic output.

My viewpoints: (mine only)

Looking at the above reports, it appears US economy is trying ‘very hard’ to remain on a steady growth path:

• Supported by resilient US labour markets.

• Improving manufacturing conditions despite tariff uncertainty.

For the new week beginning Mon, 08 Sep 2025, this backdrop suggests continued cautious optimism for US equities, with potential market sensitivity to any new labour or tariff-related developments.

Investors face continued uncertainty due to signs of a weakening labour market from recent jobs data, that points to slower job growth and softer hiring.

This bolsters expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its mid-September FOMC meeting, possibly by 25 basis points, which tends to support equities.

Small-cap stocks remain the most attractive part of the market at a 15% discount, whereas large and mid-cap are already fairly valued.

Historically, small-cap stocks do best when:

• US Federal Reserve is easing monetary policy.

• Long-term interest rates are declining.

• US economy is re-accelerating from a slowdown or recession.

With 2 of 3 conditions are coming to fruition, and 1 of 3, still an outstanding question; waiting to happen.

Looking at above reports and where you think US economy is (currently), do you think US economy re-acceleration will happen anytime soon ?

Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks.

Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks.

• End of de minimis, sell AMZN SHOP EBAY PYPL...? Thu, 04 September. Pick post.

• US on brink of Recession? Read Jobs Reports ! Wed, 03 September. Pick post.

• NIO, Chinese EV makers' 2025 comeback kid ? Tue, 02 September. Pick post.

• Do you think US labour market is resilient when continuing claims (prolong unemployment) is still elevated at 1.94 million?

• Do you think Trump’s tariffs will be able to stimulate manufacturing on-shoring in the next 1-2 years, enabling US Manufacturing PMI index to turnaround and rise instead ?

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