To The Moon

As much as I am still a little pessimistic about $NIO Inc.(NIO)$, I cannot help but acknowledged there is a lot going on for this Chinese EV, especially after the launch of its 2 diffusion lines - Onvo and Firefly.

Record Delivery.

For the past 2 months of August & September, this EV maker results’ have been ‘promising’. (see below)

September 2025.

• For September 2025, NIO has delivered 34,749 vehicles; marking its 2nd consecutive month of record-breaking results. (see above)

• This also represented a +64.06% YoY increase from the 21,181 units delivered in September 2024 and an +11.00% MoM rise from August 2025's 31,305 units.

• Premium brand NIO delivered 13,728 EVs in September 2025, marking a 3-month high.

• This reflects a +30.43% increase from August 2025.

• YoY comparison, it reflected a -32.54% YoY decline though.

August 2025.

• For August 2025, NIO delivered 31,305 vehicles.

• This represented a +55% YoY gain and nearly +50% MoM higher than July 2025.

Q4 2025.

For Q4 2025, NIO is targeting 50,000 deliveries — an aggressive goal that underscores its confidence in demand.

It also anticipates achieving a non-GAAP bottom-line breakeven, with expectation supported by a gross profit margin of 16-17%.

Based on historical data, NIO’s delivery usually peaked in December. (see above)

NIO's ES8 and Onvo L90

Growth Drivers.

NIO has just entered a robust new product cycle in recent months and Wall Street liked what they were seeing:

• Premium brand NIO’s 3rd generation ES8 SUV.

• Mid-range Onvo’s L90 SUV, that has proved to be equally popular and driving sales.

Partnership.

To support growth, NIO is expanding its partnership with insurance tech platform Cheche Group.

The 2 companies will work more closely on (a) policy issuance, (b) risk control, and (c) claims to give EV owners a smoother user experience.

CEO Lei Zhang, who also chairs Cheche, said the tie-up should bring “meaningful growth” as deliveries scale in the coming quarters.

Autonomous Driving Classification - Latest

Latest positive vibes that came out of NIO must have been the upgrade to its autonomous driving classification.

On 05 Oct 2025, it was reported that China has announced the first group of automakers cleared to pilot L3-level autonomous driving, marking another step in the gradual move toward fully self-driving vehicles. (see below)

Based on China’s own “Classification of Automobile Driving Automation,” L3 technology falls under “conditional autonomous driving”.

• This means drivers are allowed to take their hands off the wheel in specific scenarios while remaining ready to intervene at any time.

Chinese EV makers granted with L3-level included (1) Changan, (2) Aito, (3) BYD and (4) NIO.

Notably absent from the L3 pilot list are:

• $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$.

• $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$.

• Beijing-based brands $Li Auto(LI)$.

• Xiaomi.

Approval received by NIO is for an unreleased EV model:

• Equipped with NIO in-house developed NWD (Nio World Model) autonomous driving system.

• That integrates with NIO’s in-house Shenji NX9031 chip.

Shenji Chip.

The Shenji chip introduced in late 2023:

• Was first used in Nio’s high-end ET9 sedan.

• It has since been added to updated versions of the ES6, EC6, ET5, and ET5 Touring, that went on sale in mid May 2025.

Founder & CEO, Li Bin has shared that:

• The Shenji chip marks NIO’s move away from reliance on $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ hardware.

• Shifting to its own Shenji processors would save about 10,000 yuan ($1,400) per EV.

• This helps to keep EV prices affordable while remaining at the forefront of autonomous driving technology.

Stock Movement.

NIO 2025 year-to-date performance (as of 07 Oct 2025)

• NIO’s stock is up about +66.8% YTD, from a modest $4.55 per share on 02 Jan 2025.

• Rising stock price has been driven by record (a) Q3 deliveries (up +41% YoY) and (b) overall positive market sentiment after a weak H1 2025.

• Analysts are optimistic for Q4 2025 as NIO aims for profitability.

However, ongoing net losses and EV market competition could still limit gains. Further upside depends on executing growth plans and maintaining delivery momentum

All that is left is for NIO to present its (a) Q3 2025 earnings and (b) Q4 2025 guidance / outlook. If both ‘exceed’ analysts’ estimates, then closing off year end at $10 seems plausible. Agree ?

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• Do you think NIO will be able to hit the $10 mark by end 2025’?

• Do you think NIO management will be able to hand in a credible earnings report card tentatively on 19 Nov 2025 ?

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