Market Sudden Dive: Black Friday Hit Early! The Week to Buy the Dip?
Yesterday, tech stocks pulled back across the board, with $1.2 trillion wiped out from the U.S. stock market on Thursday!
$Dow Jones(.DJI)$ plunged over 700 points, and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ briefly broke below its 50-day moving average.
Why the drop? Liquidity is deteriorating, Rate-cut expectations in doubt
The U.S. government shutdown lasted 44 days, delaying federal spending that should have boosted liquidity and making things worse.
Treasury issuance increased, pulling cash out of the market in the short term, reducing liquidity in the banking system. Banks now have less cash for lending, financing, and investment — market liquidity is tightening.
Multiple Fed officials struck a cautious tone regarding a possible December rate cut. This has forced the market to adjust expectations, with the probability of a December cut now below 50%.
Early Black Friday discounts: would you buy the dip?
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ plunged 6%, continued falling pre-market, and is negative YTD again. Is the “Mag 7” about to become Mag 6?
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ , $Alphabet(GOOG)$ , $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ , $Broadcom(AVGO)$ — none escaped. Even financial stocks like $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ fell 3%. $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ ? Even worse — down 6%, crashing to $170.
Michael Burry plans to reveal more details on AI overvaluation on Nov 25, right after Nvidia’s earnings — clearly aiming to deliver another blow to an already weak macro backdrop.
Big bearish bets in the options market
There are three massive S&P 500 bearish trades suggesting potential volatility into year-end. Based on these puts, there’s a good chance the market retests 660–670 this week.
SPY 2025-11-14 659 PUT, ~$700K traded
SPY 2025-12-19 645 PUT, ~$7.5M traded
SPY 2025-12-19 647 PUT, ~$8M traded
If you’re looking at something to buy…
Tesla back to negative YTD, losing support at $400, may go down further; $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ testing the critical $600 level; $Strategy(MSTR)$ approaching $200; $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ and $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ dropped back to previous resistance — could they fill the post-earnings gap?
Everything else still near highs, Nvidia reports earnings next week.
Are you betting on a rebound — or stepping aside for now?
Everything is testing key support levels… but are these discounts good enough?
Or should we wait for the real Black Friday?
And what about Michael Burry’s recent comments?
Is he speaking out because he’s been losing money — or will he nail it again this time?
Leave your comments to win tiger coins and vouchers! Lucky tiger may win 66 tiger coins!
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On individual names, I’m staying cautious. Tesla turning negative YTD doesn’t look like a buy yet, and many big tech names — Amazon, Meta, Palantir, Nvidia — are just starting to test key support. With Nvidia’s earnings next week and Burry set to release his AI-overvaluation thesis, volatility could easily continue. I’d rather watch the price action than jump in early.
Overall, I’m choosing patience. These dips are tempting, but I want to see if support holds or if a deeper pullback is coming, especially with huge bearish SPY put positions in play. A clearer setup or a cleaner washout would give me more confidence to buy.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars
迈克尔·伯里(Michael Burry)是否因做空股票而亏损 $英伟达(NVDA)$ 和 $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$还是再钉一次？
可能两者都有。在被证明是正确的之前，他的逆向思维往往看起来是错误的。但这一次市场并没有崩溃。它正在转向更多价值股。
我相信迈克尔·伯里是在召唤泡沫，而不是逃跑。他的注销是一种战术撤退，而不是投降。
对我来说，接下来的一周是对我信念的考验。如果像英伟达这样的大型科技公司和 $亚马逊(AMZN)$ 正在举行，是时候啃了。如果他们崩溃了，我会等待盛宴。
迈克尔·伯里的警告将坚定我购买有弹性的创收资产并长期持有的信念。
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub @CaptainTiger
Are you betting on a rebound — or stepping aside for now?
Everything is testing key support levels… but are these discounts good enough?
Or should we wait for the real Black Friday?
And what about Michael Burry’s recent comments?
Is he speaking out because he’s been losing money — or will he nail it again this time?
Leave your comments to win tiger coins and vouchers! Lucky tiger may win 66 tiger coins!
是什麼引發了拋售？該股拋售的驅動力是美聯儲對12月降息的快速重新定價。根據CME FedWatch工具，降息的可能性幾乎是確定的，但現在只有50%的可能性。
更糟糕的是，美聯儲發言人的鷹派評論加劇了看跌情緒。
那麼我們應該逢低買入還是等待呢？
只有當支撐位保持並且上漲的股票多於下跌的股票時，我纔會逢低買入。我會特別密切地關注Magnificent 7 $英偉達(NVDA)$ 該公司將於11月19日公佈收益。
這是對耐心的考驗，而不是恐慌。波動性是我們爲長期收益付出的代價。
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub @CaptainTiger @Tiger_SG
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Everyone wants to time the market, so they avoid buying when it is hot, then when things slide, they still avoid buying because they expect more losses to come.
Take the chance now, take some position in stocks that you were reading up on. After all it goes: time in the market is better than timing the market
Michael Burry, known for his contrarian views, may be warning of further downturns or signaling a market turning point, though his predictions often take time to materialize.
Waiting for the real Black Friday may not lead to significantly better prices, as markets are volatile, and the dip could be either a good or bad buy now
Short-term traders might act quickly in expectation of an immediate bounce, while long-term investors may consider dollar-cost averaging, waiting for more clarity, or holding cash if risk-averse
The market is unpredictable in the short term, making it difficult to decide whether to buy the dip for a quick recovery or wait for further downside, with each decision depending on individual risk tolerance and strategy
Tag :
@Huat99
@Snowwhite
1. Betting on a stock market decline
2. There is no support level when stocks are priced highly
2. Black Friday is likely to be a weak revenue event with retail stocks impacted by adverse economic conditions
4. Michael burry is a news commentator not an investment professional
5. Michael burry is as accurate as CNN at promoting negative stock movements
We might just be living in a time that would become the background for a Big Short 2 movie, after all Burry has shown his shorts, maybe it really isn't just smoke and somewhere in the mess, there just might be a fire...
从个股看，特斯拉再度下跌6%，英伟达、亚马逊、谷歌、博通等科技巨头无一幸免。Palantir 下跌至170美元，也凸显市场对高估值 AI 概念的恐惧。期权市场的大规模看跌押注显示，年底波动可能加剧，SP500 或重测 660–670 支撑位。迈克尔·伯里的评论给市场增加了另一层心理压力，也让投资者不得不思考 AI 高估的风险。
个人观点是：目前市场波动大，折扣虽诱人，但短线追底风险较高。逢低买入可以考虑小仓位布局，分批进入；更稳健的策略是先观望，等关键支撑位确认稳定后再行动。英伟达财报将是下一轮风向标，投资者需要在情绪与基本面之间找到平衡，而不是盲目跟风黑色星期五式抄底。短期防守、长期布局，仍然是我的操作逻辑。
國債發行增加，短期內將現金撤出市場，減少了銀行體系的流動性。銀行現在用於貸款、融資和投資的現金減少了——市場流動性正在收緊。
多位美聯儲官員對12月可能降息持謹慎態度。這迫使市場調整預期，目前12月降息的概率低於50%。
國債發行增加，短期內將現金撤出市場，減少了銀行體系的流動性。銀行現在用於貸款、融資和投資的現金減少了——市場流動性正在收緊。
多位美聯儲官員對12月可能降息持謹慎態度。這迫使市場調整預期，目前12月降息的概率低於50%。