US Market Unstoppable New High: "Big Short" Warns, Too Late to Chase?
$SPX$ hit an intraday high of 7369.22 yesterday, $IXIC$ reached 25,850.19, the Dow climbed back above 50,000, and $NVDA$ surged +5.77%, reclaiming a $5 trillion market cap.
Is simply holding stocks enough to make money now?
1. AI earnings momentum keeps pushing the market higher
AMD reported Q1 data center revenue of $5.8B (+48% YoY), with Q2 guidance at $11.2B (+46% YoY), beating Street expectations by 6.3%.
ARM Q4 licensing revenue rose +29%, while data center royalties doubled YoY. The CEO stated clearly: the more complex agentic AI becomes, the more systems require CPUs for orchestration and coordination. ARM is transforming from a “mobile architecture tax” into an “AI data center architecture tax.”
2. Geopolitical risks cooling down
The U.S. and Iran are reportedly close to signing a memorandum to end the war, with Trump saying the chances of a deal are “very high.”
Brent crude fell -7.83% in a single day to $101, while WTI dropped -7.03% to $95.
The inflation narrative is starting to loosen, the U.S. dollar index fell -0.43%, and risk assets benefited.
2. Are we back to the phase where retail is euphoric while institutions turn cautious?
Goldman Sachs raised S&P EPS forecasts to 2025: $268 (+11%) vs. 2026: $288 (+7%) and also lifted its year-end SPX target.
At the same time, Goldman’s own data shows:
-
Hedge funds have been net sellers of U.S. equities for 3 consecutive weeks
-
Tech sector deleveraging is the largest in 10 years
$Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ is still sitting on roughly $400B in cash and is not chasing highs.
On Wednesday, famous bear Michael Burry shared data on X comparing SanDisk’s gains to historical market leaders. During the late-1990s tech bubble, Qualcomm was one of the biggest winners, with a peak 52-week rolling return of 2620%.
$SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ has gone even further:
-
From May 2025 to May 2026, its stock surged an unprecedented 3960%
-
Burry also pointed out that SanDisk was the second-best-performing stock in 1999, rising 581%
3. What can still be bought now?
AI Infrastructure: AMD + ARM validated this quarter that “inference and agentic AI are incremental CPU narratives.” This logic likely continues at least until MI455X mass production in 2H 2026.
Memory: $SNDK$ gross margin hit 78% with Q2 guidance at 80%, while the $MU$ CEO called memory a “strategic asset.” Supply constraints extending into 2027–2028 make this more than just a quarterly cycle story. Storage remains a purer supply-demand trade than CPUs.
Precious Metals: $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ rose +2.95% today to $4703, while silver jumped +5.77% to $77.83.
Weak dollar + falling real yields + geopolitical premium = stronger hedging value for precious metals. JPMorgan said: “The major pension rotation into gold from Western institutions hasn’t even started yet.”
Healthcare: The sector has fallen -9% since the Iran war began, making it one of the most lagging sectors amid extreme market breadth divergence.
If geopolitical risks genuinely cool, and defensive money rotates back into risk assets, healthcare could become one of the strongest catch-up trades.
4. Chase highs or wait for a pullback?
-
Goldman is raising SPX targets, while hedge funds are exiting — who do you believe?
-
AMD is now worth $680B after an 18% surge, and ARM rallied +13% after-hours on AI CPU repricing. How much upside is still left?
-
If an Iran deal is finalized and Fed rate-cut expectations return, where will the money flow next?
-
Leave your comments to win tiger coins~
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
At the same time, Goldman’s own data shows:
Hedge funds have been net sellers of U.S. equities for 3 consecutive weeks
Tech sector deleveraging is the largest in 10 years
Brent crude fell -7.83% in a single day to $101, while WTI dropped -7.03% to $95.
The inflation narrative is starting to loosen, the U.S. dollar index fell -0.43%, and risk assets benefited.
At the same time, I’m aware the market is becoming more divided underneath the surface. Even with geopolitical risks easing, hedge funds have been net sellers & leverage in tech is coming down, which suggests institutions are becoming more cautious even as indices grind higher.
So I’m staying invested but more selective. I still focus on AI infrastructure like AMD and ARM, and memory names like $SNDK$ and $MU$, but I prefer waiting for better pullbacks rather than chasing extended strength when sentiment starts to look stretched. Overall, I think discipline and timing matter more than ever in this phase of the cycle.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub
For years, we obsessed over GPUs and CPUs while memory was just the reliable background player.
However in 2026, the narrative has flipped.
$Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$ is the newest ETF that was only launched in April 2026. DRAM is a pure play ETF designed to capture the memory cycle of the AI revolution.
Since its April launch DRAM has surged 67%. In contrast $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ has only risen 44%.
Only 3 companies : $Micron Technology(MU)$ SK Hynix and Samsung control the global supply of memory chips. DRAM provides a rare, direct gateway to this memory giants.
As AI models grow, they don't just need faster processors, they need massive amounts of High Bandwidth Memory or HBM. DRAM encapsulates this trend
In this market, the greatest risk isn't the Volatility but the silence of being left be.
2. $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $ARM Holdings(ARM)$ are both stable companies with long term earnings which have potential for future growth over time
3. The longer the us Iran war continues then the longer alternative supply routes have to develop and increase in volume over time, this reduces the impact of ending the war on the economy. Hot money will continue to be invested in $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$