To The Moon

Next week is the day when important US CPI data is released. If it improves, it may cause the market to expect the hawkish attitude of the Federal Reserve to turn.

However, according to the statistics of FEDwatch tool of Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points at the November meeting has exceeded 80%, so CPI data may have little impact on the market.

As far as the attitude of the Federal Reserve is concerned, it is a bit difficult to change the dovish attitude directly near the mid-term election, but the attitude of the former hawkish and the latter dovish can be expected. After all, since OPEC announced a substantial reduction in production, the election situation of the Democratic Party in the mid-term election is in jeopardy. If the mid-term election loses, the political pressure on the Federal Reserve will be weakened,

1. Where does the US stock index go?

I believe everyone is still very concerned about the situation of US stocks, especially the recent sharp decline in technology stocks. In fact, it is safer to look at indexes than individual stocks in the current market. After all, indexes are the guarantee of confidence, and the Federal Reserve will rescue them, but individual stocks have to look at the fundamentals and news of different stocks. Last week, in the column of "Zhihui Investment Research" in my Xiaohongquan, I accurately gave the time point of the rebound of US stocks last week and the position of the rebound high point.

As last week's post said, the US stock index will enter a critical moment to see the inflection point, so we should pay close attention to it.​​

​Second, crude oil

The drop in oil prices caused OPEC to cut production and carry oil prices, which was expected beforehand. However, I often didn't expect OPEC to give the United States such a disgrace, and the reduction in production greatly exceeded market expectations, which severely punched the Biden administration's efforts to suppress oil prices. $75 is the low point of this round of oil price adjustment.

Since the low point is clear, what remains is the question of when to buy it .It is not known whether the Biden administration of the United States will make a last-ditch effort to reach a the Iranian nuclear deal before the mid-term elections and release Iranian crude oil from the market to stabilize oil prices. It can be understood that if there is no news in this respect and there is almost no bad news in short-term oil prices, then prices will tend to rise. When this short-term rise will be trimmed may be related to the the Iranian nuclear deal news.

Oil prices are still expected to fluctuate greatly next week (rising sharply during the National Day, which usually forces China to open higher), and there is still momentum to rush higher on Monday and Tuesday. $100 is the test price of this round of news. Daring friends can try to chase more short-term, don't think about short-selling Bo adjustment, no news to cooperate with bad trading.​​

​All in all, the recent low point of crude oil is an important long-term low point, which also shows the psychological line of OPEC oil-producing countries. At the end of the adjustment here, the low point of the oil price range has been made clear, and the running time of the high range in history will last for 2-3 years.

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