To The Moon

NIO EV Delivery - 20 Mar to 26 Mar 2023

We have just passed the half way mark for end Mar 2023.

Let’s take a look at NIO’s 2nd last week of Mar EV deliveries and assess if it will be able to deliver the Planned Q1 EV delivery of 31,000 to 33,000 EVs.

Below, pls find weekly review of the shortlisted EVs makers.

In no particular order, they are :

• $BYD Co., Ltd.(BYDDY)$ - Undisputed EV maker in China in terms of output & sales. Dethroned Tesla for the longest time. Ex-Berkshire Hathaway invested company.

• $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ - #2 EV maker in China. Sales is not as what owner, CEO claimed.

• $NIO Inc.(NIO)$

• $Li Auto(LI)$ - Many analysts believed this will be the Hybrid EV maker that will break even first amongst the 3.

• $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ - Lately, this stock has become the darlings of speculators. Beware !

China overall EV delivery for Mar 20 to Mar 26 2023

Week 20 Mar to 26 Mar Overall Delivery & Insurance registrations :

• Came in at 128,300 EVs.

• This is increased of +26.63% (YoY) and +13.89% (week on week).

• Implying that EV penetration in China stands at +32% for week ending 19 Mar 2023; indicating a healthy growth remains in Chinese EV market.

Zooming Into Shortlisted EV Makers Delivery : (Weekly)

• BYD. Still ranked #1 and managed to increase output by +13.21%.

• Tesla. Still ranked #2. Delivery has slipped -15.10% last week. Will this bode well for Q1 2023 earnings reporting; given that Tesla has slashed its prices since Oct 2022 in a bid to maintain volume sales.

• Li Auto. Slipped 1 position to #6. Delivery has slipped -6.56%. Still hoovering above 5,000 cars delivered.

• Xpeng. Maintained its rank #14. Delivery has improved by +20.68%. Still the poorest showing of the 3 chinese EV maker. YTD its speculative stock price has gained +9.92%. XPeng investors will have to be on alert as the slightest movement in US EV stocks may see Xpeng tumbling again.

• NIO. Slipped 2 positions to #13 despite delivery has increased by marginal +7.55%. Accumulatively, NIO has delivered 29,229 EVs for Q1 2023.

  With the last week’s delivery still in the pipleline, NIO is on target to delivery its planned delivery as highlighted be NIO Management in Jan 2023.

• The “slow down” in output capacity for last 2 weeks is suspected to be due to its factory’s automated workflow calibration in preparation for production of the two new models due for deliveries. They are “EC7” in May 2023 & “ES8” in Jun 2023 respectively.

NIO’s Delivery Detailed Breakdown

NIO's EV delivery in details

Above tabulation consists of the followings :

• Year 2022 total delivery - 122,486 EVs (Baseline)

• Jan 2023 registration - 8,506 units; approx. 7% of Yr 2022 registrations.

• Feb 2023 registration - 11,524 units; approx. 9.4% of Yr 2022 registrations.

• Mar 2023 registration (so far) - 9,199 units; its about 7.51% of Yr 2022 registrations.

• Leaving 76% (approx) to be delivered or better.

• 39 weeks more to meet or better Year 2023 targets.

NIO’s Deliveries - 12 Months Calendar View

• Above is a 12 month breakdown of NIO’s EV delivery and registrations.

• The figures have been proven overtime to be accurate compared to official figures after adjustments.

• For Year 2023, NIO’s deliveries have accumulatively been above its 2022 results. Note that Chinese New Year was celebrated in Jan this year vs Feb last year. Despite the earlier 2 weeks shutdown in factory output as workers headed back to hometown for the annual celebration.

My Viewpoint of NIO in 2023

Barring any unforeseen circumstances, I strongly believed that NIO would be able to better its 2023 results for the following reasons :

• NIO is pivoting to collaborative effort with 1,000 partners to realize the vision of 1,000 new Third generation swap stations this year.

• Not only will this help to strengthen its charging infrastructure quicker but perhaps at perhaps lower expenditure as it is no longer a one man effort but that of a network of 1,000 partners scattered throughout China. There is beauty in numbers.

• NIO’s best selling sedan ET5 is slated for delivery in Germany starting 31 Mar. This should see demand for its sedans oversees growing.

• If we could see a concerted effort in NIO’s part to keep expenditure under control in its Q1 2023 quarterly earnings report, this should pave the way for its stock price’s recovery gradually over the next 9 months.

• I am not for the idea of a meteoric rise in its share price only to have it come crashing down at the slightest market turbulence. Leave that for Xpeng and its speculative shareholders.

• Do you think NIO will be able to meet its Q1 2023 delivery target ?

• Do you think it is time to invest in NIO if you are not a shareholder yet ?

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