The global economic landscape in 2025 is complex and fluid, with the dynamics of the U.S. market of particular interest.With Donald Trump re-elected as president, his policies will have a profound impact on the economy.This article examines the key trends, policy implications, and market expectations for the U.S. economy in 2025.Key VariablesTrump's policies are pivotal.The order and intensity of his policies after his inauguration will shape market expectations and become an important weathervane for the direction of assets.The AI industry continues to be a major investment theme.Developments in the tech sector are expected to be a new engine to pull the overall economy.Exchange rate intervention has far-reaching implications.The exchange rate policies of both the U.S. and China will have

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has historically served as a reliable hedge during periods of economic downturn, particularly in the 2008 and 2020 recessions. During those times, TLT saw significant gains as investors sought the safety of long-term U.S. Treasury bonds amid declining economic activity and falling interest rates. While the current environment presents unique challenges, TLT remains a compelling option for those seeking a defensive asset against the risk of a future recession. Historical Performance of TLT in Recessions 2008 Financial Crisis: During the global financial meltdown, TLT surged as the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to near-zero levels and initiated quantitative easing. Investors flocked to long-term Treasuries as a safe haven, pushing bond pr

The U.S. bond market has begun 2025 under a cloud, with a series of complex and intractable debt issues coming up one after the other, casting a thick shadow over the market outlook.First, a number of debts will mature in the current year.In terms of debt maturities, up to nearly $3 trillion of U.S. debt is expected to mature in the current year, with short-term debt taking up a sizable portion of this amount, and these maturities account for nearly 10 percent of current government debt.The root of this phenomenon lies in the fact that over the past several years, the U.S. Treasury has issued short-term bonds on a large scale in response to a variety of economic conditions and funding needs.Today, these short-term debts are maturing in a concentrated manner, putting the market under tremen

With the opening of the "Trump 2.0" era, the direction of his policies has attracted much attention.Trump put forward a series of policy ideas during the election campaign, the implementation of these policies will have a far-reaching impact on the U.S. economy and the U.S. stock market.Anatomy of the core propositions of Trump 2.0 policiesCorrections to Biden Administration PoliciesWhile the massive fiscal expansion during the Biden administration boosted economic growth, it also caused problems such as high inflation.After taking office this time, Trump plans to control inflation by increasing energy supply and cutting unnecessary fiscal spending.For example, he appointed Musk and Ramaswamy to lead the government's efficiency department to cut redundant government spending, and nominated