Weekly Overview Treasuries are the market’s pricing anchor. With the 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, equities, gold, and crypto assets all need to be reassessed in light of high-rate pressure. The Treasury Department’s earlier buybacks failed to reverse the trend in long-dated bonds. A peak in yields still needs confirmation. If oil remains range-bound, and with the two remaining rate hikes expected this year already priced in, the rise in yields may slow. But an escalation in U.S.–Iran tensions or more hawkish statements from the Fed could change that assessment. The conditions for a bond rebound are building. CTAs’ positioning in 10-year Treasuries is low, while speculative net positions in 10-year Treasuries have moved from deeply bearish to neutral, increasing the possibility of a bon

One of the biggest questions for investors right now is what happens if interest rates stay higher for longer than the market expects. When rates are high, the investment landscape changes. Cash and short-term fixed income suddenly offer meaningful yields, borrowing becomes more expensive, and highly valued growth stocks can face more pressure as investors reassess what future earnings are worth today. But higher rates don’t necessarily mean sitting on the sidelines. If I had $10,000 to invest today, I’d be thinking about balancing three things: income, quality and flexibility. 🇺🇸 U.S. stocks I would still want exposure to equities, but I’d be more selective. Companies with strong balance sheets, consistent cash flow and pricing power can be better positioned if financing costs remain elev

High Rates for Longer: How Would I Change My Investment Strategy? The biggest mistake in a “higher-for-longer” environment is assuming that the answer is simply to sell stocks and wait for rates to fall. I would do something different. I would make the portfolio more sensitive to cash flow, valuation and balance-sheet strength — while becoming much more selective about how much I pay for future growth. The reason is simple: high rates change the hurdle rate for almost every investment. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield recently reached 5.278%, its highest level since 2007, while the 30-year yield also reached levels not seen since 2002. The Federal Reserve has also raised its policy rate to 3.75%–4.00%, with markets still pricing meaningful odds of another hike.  That creates a very dif

English version: If there is only one number worth watching closely in today's market, it is probably the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. It is no longer just a KPI for bond traders; it has become a common pricing anchor for U.S. equities, gold, crude oil and even Bitcoin. With that anchor pushed to a historic high of 5.2%, and the market having priced in both of the remaining rate hikes this year, a more important question arises: How much higher can it go? $美国2年期国债收益率(US2Y.BOND)$ $美国10年期国债收益率(US10Y.BOND)$ $美元ETF-PowerShares DB(UUP)$ I. One Master Switch Holds the Reins of Every Asset Let me start with the c

If interest rates stay higher for longer, I would not sit entirely in cash waiting for the “perfect” entry. I would adjust my allocation, keep investing, and make higher yields work in my favour. The latest Fed decision reinforces this scenario. In September, the Fed raised the federal funds target range to 3.75–4.00%, while its median projection puts the policy rate at 4.1% at the end of both 2026 and 2027. Inflation is also projected to remain above the 2% target for some time. If I had $10,000 to deploy today, my allocation would look roughly like this: 📈 $5,000 – Global/U.S. equities I would continue accumulating diversified ETFs rather than trying to time the bottom. Within equities, I would favour profitable, cash-generative companies with strong balance sheets. Higher borrowing cost

The global macroeconomic landscape has decisively shifted from an era of ultra-low, zero-interest-rate policy (ZIRP) to a persistent "higher-for-longer" structural interest rate regime. In this article, we would like to share how we would navigate the higher-for-longer rate regime, with buying high yields across longer-duration fixed-income instruments while selectively buying cash-flowing, high-quality equities to avoid the risk of my cash yields dropping later. 1. The Strategic Imperative of Locking in Long-Duration Yields For years following the global financial crisis and the pandemic shock, investors grew accustomed to near-zero benchmark interest rates. Yield-seeking capital crowded into risky assets or lingered in ultra-short cash equivalents. However, the subsequent monetary tighte