With share markets enjoying a strong start to the year, investors are considering whether it's time to take profits.
The adage “Sell in May and go away” often resurfaces in late April/early May.
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Sell in May and Go Away? The problem with "Sell in May" is that seasonality in May isn't bad. 75% of the time markets close higher by an average of 0.2%. The riskiest month is September, where markets are only up 55% of the time and have an average return of -0.7%. But nothing rhymes with September 🤷♀️
Hi everyone. The last time I issued an update on this cryptocurrency miner was about a month ago. Here’s my updated TA: Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: MARA) Instead of trying to look at smaller fractals, let’s look at the larger fractal. Consider the ascending support and resistance trendlines (in green) which form somewhat of an expansion pattern. Notice how in the short-term, the stock is trading in a bearish ascending channel (in red) which is indicative of another leg down. Similar to my previous newsletter on MARA, at the minimum, I am expecting the 13.70-14.07 gap to fill. As we have seen from the last major correction on MARA ending in Oct’23, price action remained muted until the stock filled the 7.21-7.49 gap from Mar’23. I am expecting something similar here. The main
My Watchlist [94]: AAPL... 2 Scenarios - Be Nimble!
Hi everyone. Today I’ll be sharing 2 possible scenarios for Buffett’s favourite stock: Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) AAPL has been trading in a series of higher highs and higher lows. Notice how it has held the dark green support trendline since 2018. AAPL is currently trading in what seems to be a descending broadening wedge reversal pattern, after making new ATHs at 199.62. What happens next largely depends on the reaction at the 186 level: Under the “bullish scenario”, AAPL breaks out and heads towards 198.23 to form what could possibly be the right shoulder in a head and shoulders pattern. If this happens, we can see a longer consolidation pattern. Under the “bearish scenario”, AAPL rejects at this 186 level and heads back down towards the 158-159 bullish gap from March last year. This s
My Watchlist [93]: AEM (SGX: AWX)... Not Looking Good.
Hi everyone. I’ll also be initiating coverage on a semiconductor company in Singapore: AEM Holdings Ltd. (SGX: AWX) AEM’s chart looks really weak. And I mean it. Here’s why: AEM formed a head and shoulders topping pattern (see if you can spot it - I won’t be pointing it out as it has already completed this pattern) previously. Subsequently, it broke down from a 7-year support trendline (green) in February, and has not been able to break above its 3-year resistance trendline (red). Until the latter is broken, it will continue to trade in a series of lower highs and lower lows. We appear to be nearing a short-term bottom, as we set to retest prior resistance at 1.89 from above. This should result in an S/R flip that can lead to a “bear market”-style retracement to 2.83 (prior support-turned
Just a few days ago the media reported that $Microsoft (MSFT) Preparing to launch a new in-house AI model for MAI-1 with about 500 billion parameters, it was recently revealed that OpenAI is developing a search function for ChatGPT.These have the potential to $Google (GOOG)$ The search brings competition. $Google A(GOOGL)$In fact, AI search is not to be bypassed, not only Google itself has begun to invest further, $Nvidia (NVDA)$ Rivals such as AI search startup Perplexity, which it has taken a stake in, are also primed to mature, as are
The saying "Sell in May and go away" suggests that investors should sell their stock holdings in May to avoid a seasonal decline in the market, with plans to return in November. This strategy is based on the historical observation that stock market returns from May through October are often lower compared to other months. This could be due to lower trading volumes as many investors take summer vacations, leading to less liquidity and potentially more volatility. The strategy also considers factors like the financial calendar, which can influence institutional investors' behavior, and sector rotation, where different industries perform better at different times of the year. However, this adage has its criticisms, including inconsistencies in year-over-year data, the potential costs o
US Market: Rolling Good Times Back? Yes, but not so soon.
US Market - Stocktaking. Stocks have remained resilient in recent weeks despite: Reports on sticky inflation. Confirmation that the Fed will hold interest rates higher for longer. Now, Wall Street strategists believe that's likely due to a better-than-expected set of first quarter earnings. Supporting Facts … With 80% of the S&P 500 companies completed their mandatory reporting according to FactSet, the benchmark index is on track for a 5% growth in first quarter earnings per share. (see above) This is (a) the biggest YoY increase since Q2 2022 and (b) higher than the 3.2% growth analysts had expected prior to the start of the season. As highlighted by BlackRock, Head of Investment Institute - Jean Bolvin: Historically, higher interest rates usually hurt US stock valuations. This t
You can grow $1,000 into $25,000+ in 1 month. 3 set-ups to focus in May
You can grow $1,000 into $25,000+ in 1 month. $S&P 500(.SPX)$$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ ImageMars turned $1000 to $60,000 in 1 month in his small account challenge in February 2024 using the follow 3 strategies:Here's 3 set-ups to focus in May:#1 $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ earnings run-up - May 22 is earnings. (FOMC is over now) - Target $1000+ - Buy dips using June 21 $900-$1000 calls. - You're NOT betting on earnings date you are playing the move up to it! - It should be bullish $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ is very likely to break all time highs in our opinion with this set-up right here as it pushes off the moving averages
Lance Roberts: 3 Potential Paths for The Market to Take
$Goldman Sachs(GS)$ remains very optimistic on earnings growth over the next two years. They are maintaining its year-end $S&P 500(.SPX)$ price target of 5,200, while also expecting the S&P 500 EPS to reach $241 by the end of 2024.Lance Roberts, Chief Strategist at RIA Advisors.com laid out three paths for the market near term. They gave Path A the highest probability. With the market back above the 50-DMA, but short-term overbought some consolidation is likely.With a bulk of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ earnings reported, after the cuts in estimates heading into Q1, the overall growth rate aligned with the long-term median.$S&
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ reported Q1 earnings, and while both the top line and bottom line beat consensus.But post-market feedback was still negative, mainly due to lower-than-expected current billings and slower revenue growth in the U.S. commercial segment.Meanwhile, guidance upgrades have been factored in by the market, falling short of positive pre-earnings funding expectations.Investment Highlights:1. U.S. commercial revenue growth slowed down, international revenue growth picked up. Palantir's U.S. revenue has always accounted for more than half of the revenue in the last quarter to achieve a rapid growth of 70% of the large exceeded expectations, Q1 growth rate fell rapidly to 40%, slowing down the expansion; while the internation
Venture Corporation - Worst Performance Since 2016
Venture Corp (SGX:V03)'s 1Q24 results were disappointing. Revenue in 1Q24 declined around 19% y-o-y to S$666.7mil, the weakest in eight years or 2016. The weakness was attributed to destocking in the life science, network, and communications segments. Net profit declined 18% y-o-y to S$60.1mil. Earnings were supported by strong interest income. Phillip Security Research 06/05/2024: Maintain NEUTRAL with an unchanged Venture Corp target price of S$12.75, based on 2-year historical P/E ratio of 13 times. $Venture(V03.SI)$
May 2024 this time is for 'Buy and Stay'! Stocks are at rock bottom bargains now. CEO of Intel Patrick Gelsinger just added Intel shares again[Happy] [Happy]
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Sell in May and Go Away? The problem with "Sell in May" is that seasonality in May isn't bad. 75% of the time markets close higher by an average of 0.2%. The riskiest month is September, where markets are only up 55% of the time and have an average return of -0.7%. But nothing rhymes with September 🤷♀️
My Watchlist [94]: AAPL... 2 Scenarios - Be Nimble!
Hi everyone. Today I’ll be sharing 2 possible scenarios for Buffett’s favourite stock: Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) AAPL has been trading in a series of higher highs and higher lows. Notice how it has held the dark green support trendline since 2018. AAPL is currently trading in what seems to be a descending broadening wedge reversal pattern, after making new ATHs at 199.62. What happens next largely depends on the reaction at the 186 level: Under the “bullish scenario”, AAPL breaks out and heads towards 198.23 to form what could possibly be the right shoulder in a head and shoulders pattern. If this happens, we can see a longer consolidation pattern. Under the “bearish scenario”, AAPL rejects at this 186 level and heads back down towards the 158-159 bullish gap from March last year. This s
Hi everyone. The last time I issued an update on this cryptocurrency miner was about a month ago. Here’s my updated TA: Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: MARA) Instead of trying to look at smaller fractals, let’s look at the larger fractal. Consider the ascending support and resistance trendlines (in green) which form somewhat of an expansion pattern. Notice how in the short-term, the stock is trading in a bearish ascending channel (in red) which is indicative of another leg down. Similar to my previous newsletter on MARA, at the minimum, I am expecting the 13.70-14.07 gap to fill. As we have seen from the last major correction on MARA ending in Oct’23, price action remained muted until the stock filled the 7.21-7.49 gap from Mar’23. I am expecting something similar here. The main
My Watchlist [93]: AEM (SGX: AWX)... Not Looking Good.
Hi everyone. I’ll also be initiating coverage on a semiconductor company in Singapore: AEM Holdings Ltd. (SGX: AWX) AEM’s chart looks really weak. And I mean it. Here’s why: AEM formed a head and shoulders topping pattern (see if you can spot it - I won’t be pointing it out as it has already completed this pattern) previously. Subsequently, it broke down from a 7-year support trendline (green) in February, and has not been able to break above its 3-year resistance trendline (red). Until the latter is broken, it will continue to trade in a series of lower highs and lower lows. We appear to be nearing a short-term bottom, as we set to retest prior resistance at 1.89 from above. This should result in an S/R flip that can lead to a “bear market”-style retracement to 2.83 (prior support-turned
US Market: Rolling Good Times Back? Yes, but not so soon.
US Market - Stocktaking. Stocks have remained resilient in recent weeks despite: Reports on sticky inflation. Confirmation that the Fed will hold interest rates higher for longer. Now, Wall Street strategists believe that's likely due to a better-than-expected set of first quarter earnings. Supporting Facts … With 80% of the S&P 500 companies completed their mandatory reporting according to FactSet, the benchmark index is on track for a 5% growth in first quarter earnings per share. (see above) This is (a) the biggest YoY increase since Q2 2022 and (b) higher than the 3.2% growth analysts had expected prior to the start of the season. As highlighted by BlackRock, Head of Investment Institute - Jean Bolvin: Historically, higher interest rates usually hurt US stock valuations. This t
S&P 500: Recession To Hit Right Before The Election
Summary ISM Services for April shows contraction in the U.S. service sector, a key driver of the economy, while the U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected. Based on this data, the U.S. economy is likely slipping into a recession in Q3 2024. Thus, S&P 500 is facing a recessionary bear market, which could be brutal as the mega-cap tech bubble burst. LilliDay An imminent recession The labor market report for April showed that the U.S. economy added only 175K new jobs, which was well below the expectations of 245K. This data, on the surface, points to a slowing U.S. economy. But more importantly, the ISM Services for April came at 49.4, which indicates that the U.S. service sector is contracting. This was completely
April Recap | Bull Market is Back: HSI Leads Global Stock Markets!
In April, with flowers blooming and birds singing, Hong Kong stock market is also booming.The $HSI(HSI)$ surged 7.39% in April, ranking first among major global indices, surpassing 20% from its lowest point, entering a technical bull market! Meanwhile, overseas markets like the US and Japanese stocks are in a slump.What's the secret behind Hong Kong stocks' independent rally?Big NewsOn the news side, there's no big news both at home and abroad.Domestically, the import-export data in March declined year-on-year, and profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size also fell, ending the recovery trend since last August.Abroad, the US economy was robust in the first quarter, with core CPI higher than expected, making it unlikely for the Fed t
As we revisit the age-old adage, "Sell in May and go away," the allure of evading seasonal market blues seems tempting. But before we leap into the whimsy of seasonal trading, let's delve into the financial rationale behind this oft-repeated advice. The Olden Days of Stock Lore: Uncovering Stock Market Legends: Past Trends Analysed Legend has it that from May to October, the stock market takes a siesta, offering lacklustre returns akin to a stale crumpet. Conversely, the months from November to April supposedly bloom with market riches, akin to freshly picked strawberries in a summer garden. However, in our modern investment world, relying solely on historical whimsy is akin to betting on the swirling pattern of a teabag in a cup. Diving Into the Data: Peering through the lens of statistic
You can grow $1,000 into $25,000+ in 1 month. 3 set-ups to focus in May
You can grow $1,000 into $25,000+ in 1 month. $S&P 500(.SPX)$$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ ImageMars turned $1000 to $60,000 in 1 month in his small account challenge in February 2024 using the follow 3 strategies:Here's 3 set-ups to focus in May:#1 $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ earnings run-up - May 22 is earnings. (FOMC is over now) - Target $1000+ - Buy dips using June 21 $900-$1000 calls. - You're NOT betting on earnings date you are playing the move up to it! - It should be bullish $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ is very likely to break all time highs in our opinion with this set-up right here as it pushes off the moving averages
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ reported Q1 earnings, and while both the top line and bottom line beat consensus.But post-market feedback was still negative, mainly due to lower-than-expected current billings and slower revenue growth in the U.S. commercial segment.Meanwhile, guidance upgrades have been factored in by the market, falling short of positive pre-earnings funding expectations.Investment Highlights:1. U.S. commercial revenue growth slowed down, international revenue growth picked up. Palantir's U.S. revenue has always accounted for more than half of the revenue in the last quarter to achieve a rapid growth of 70% of the large exceeded expectations, Q1 growth rate fell rapidly to 40%, slowing down the expansion; while the internation
Just a few days ago the media reported that $Microsoft (MSFT) Preparing to launch a new in-house AI model for MAI-1 with about 500 billion parameters, it was recently revealed that OpenAI is developing a search function for ChatGPT.These have the potential to $Google (GOOG)$ The search brings competition. $Google A(GOOGL)$In fact, AI search is not to be bypassed, not only Google itself has begun to invest further, $Nvidia (NVDA)$ Rivals such as AI search startup Perplexity, which it has taken a stake in, are also primed to mature, as are
How to understand convergence of Gold, Yield, and USD?
Since April, the nominal yield on $US10Y(US10Y.BOND)$ has surged close to 4.7%, and the real interest rate has risen from 1.87% to 2.41%. The $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ has increased from 104 to 106, yet $Gold - main 2406(GCmain)$ has paradoxically soared by more than 7%, with only a slight pullback seen recently. $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$ Is this seemingly "contradictory" trend indicative of the emergence of new and more significant pricing factors at play?There are some aspects to observe.Divergent Traditional Correlations: The recent rise in gold prices, alongside increases in both the US dollar and
43% profit ! 2nd may Jepi Sell call earn instead of sell in may and go away
**Max's Guide to Dodging the "Sell in May" Syndrome** **1. Staying Cool as a Cucumber with Jepi ETF 🥒** Alright, let's break it down. You've got your hands on Jepi ETF, cruising at an average price of $56.50 for 200 shares. Not too shabby, right? Now, here's the kicker: you're not just sitting there twiddling your thumbs. Nope, you're selling a call at $56 and another at $57, pocketing premiums of $0.65 and $0.45, respectively. Cha-ching! 💰$JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF(JEPI)$$DJIA(.DJI)$ **2. Riding the Dividend Wave Like a Pro 🌊** Hold up, we're not done yet. While others are sweating bullets over whether to sell or not, you're chilling like a villain, collec
$(TSM)$ Sell in May and Go Away: A Summer Vacation for Your Portfolio? The age-old adage, "Sell in May and go away," has been whispered in investment circles for generations. This strategy proposes selling your stocks in May and staying out of the market until November, aiming to capitalize on a historical trend of weaker stock market performance during those summer months. The Logic Behind the Sell-Off: The theory behind "Sell in May and go away" rests on historical data. On average, the S&P 500 has delivered lower returns from May to October compared to the period between November and April. This trend is attributed to several factors: * Summer Slump: Reduced trading activity during the summer months, as invest
Economic Data and Fed Policy: Rising labor costs and weakening consumer confidence have contributed to market uncertainty. U.S. labor costs increased by 1.2% last quarter, surpassing expectations and signaling wage pressures that could complicate inflation management. In addition, a survey revealed that U.S. consumer confidence declined to its lowest level in more than 1-1/2 years. These reports coincided with the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with investors anticipating the central bank to hold interest rates steady. Market participants are closely watching the Fed's response to these economic indicators and how it might influence future monetary policy. Key Sectors and Stocks: The decline affected several significant stocks, including those in the Magnificent Sev
What happens to $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ the other day, is gonna happen to $Apple(AAPL)$ .As the Q1 financial report was officially released, the excessive pessimism previously held by the market towards TSLA has been alleviated. TSLA's stock price soared from a low of just $140 to over $190, rebounding by more than 35% in just four days.The gross margin is not as pessimistic as the market had estimated, and Musk's cost management remains reliable;Actions such as layoffs to reduce operating expenses have also begun, and there is hope for an improvement in profit margins;The further advancement of FSD, with price increases in the North American region, and this is a business with a higher profit margin.These l
The saying "Sell in May and go away" suggests that investors should sell their stock holdings in May to avoid a seasonal decline in the market, with plans to return in November. This strategy is based on the historical observation that stock market returns from May through October are often lower compared to other months. This could be due to lower trading volumes as many investors take summer vacations, leading to less liquidity and potentially more volatility. The strategy also considers factors like the financial calendar, which can influence institutional investors' behavior, and sector rotation, where different industries perform better at different times of the year. However, this adage has its criticisms, including inconsistencies in year-over-year data, the potential costs o
🌟🌟🌟Sell In May and Go Away is a trading strategy which recommends investors close their positions in May and walk away from the markets until October. This strategy is in stark contrast to Buy and hold in which investors will ride out temporary slumps in the market. April is supposed to be a strong month, yet it was down 3% for $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ breaking a 5 month winning streak. According to Stock Trader's Almanac, the market has a tendency to be weaker in April and May after First Quarter Big Gains in election years but also noted the last 7 months of the year tend to be up. Market timing is always a tricky affair. Instead I prefer the saying "It
It's depends on your investment strategy and what stocks you are holding. All of my stocks are at net loss but I'm playing the long game as these stocks are currently. We are at the time of speculative trading, unless I need to liquidate to recover cash, my strategy would be to keep my portfolio until the stock hits its right valuation.
Lance Roberts: 3 Potential Paths for The Market to Take
$Goldman Sachs(GS)$ remains very optimistic on earnings growth over the next two years. They are maintaining its year-end $S&P 500(.SPX)$ price target of 5,200, while also expecting the S&P 500 EPS to reach $241 by the end of 2024.Lance Roberts, Chief Strategist at RIA Advisors.com laid out three paths for the market near term. They gave Path A the highest probability. With the market back above the 50-DMA, but short-term overbought some consolidation is likely.With a bulk of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ earnings reported, after the cuts in estimates heading into Q1, the overall growth rate aligned with the long-term median.$S&