To The Moon

Overview: Mixed Signals in U.S. Economic Activity S&P Global's preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June reveals a nuanced picture of the U.S. economy. The service sector is expanding at its fastest pace in over two years, driven by easing price pressures and the prospect of lower interest rates. However, the manufacturing outlook remains bleak, with manufacturers expressing apprehensions about the potential policy impacts of the upcoming elections. The overall PMI composite has reached its highest level in 26 months, indicating resilient business activity as the second quarter draws to a close. Service Sector Rebound The services PMI rose by 0.3 points to 55.1 in June, marking the highest level since April 2022 and exceeding economists' expectations. This indicates a robu

Last week’s FOMC meeting saw rates being held constant, with 2024 projections indicating a single cut and Chair Powell's stance being less dovish than recent meetings. The median 2024 projection showed one cut for this year, down from three in March. However, projections for 2025 and 2026 each indicate four cuts, up from three in March, maintaining a total of nine cuts over the next two and a half years, but with a delayed start and quicker catch-up after year-end. This is despite lower-than-expected May CPI where monthly increase in core CPI was 0.16% (expected: 0.3%), the lowest since August 2021, reducing the year-on-year rate from 3.6% to 3.4%. Headline PPI also dropped 0.2% in May (consensus: 0.1%), and the core index remained constant (consensus: 0.3%). Initial jobless claims unexpec

Market BackgroundThe U.S. CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year in May, and the core CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year, both lower than the previous value and market expectations. This suggests that inflationary pressures have eased and market expectations of a Fed rate cut have strengthened. Nonetheless, the Fed chose to stay put at the June FOMC meeting, but the dot plot shows that Fed officials expect the number of rate cuts to be reduced from three to one this year. This hawkish signal to some extent dampened the market's expectations of rate cuts.Trend Analysis of U.S. Treasury Yields?The measurement of U.S. bond rates should not only take into account traditional interest rate expectations and term premiums, but also focus on the equilibrium relationship between the cost of financing and the return on

Overview The recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held by the Federal Reserve has once again captured the attention of both domestic and international financial markets. The key focus remains on whether the Fed will adjust its short-term lending rates to major financial institutions. Despite market hopes for a rate cut amidst signs of slowing inflation, the Fed has chosen to maintain the current interest rate at 5.5%. This decision raises questions about the Fed's future policy direction and its commitment to its 2% inflation target. Federal Reserve's Role and Decision-Making Process The FOMC, composed of Federal Reserve Board members and rotating regional Fed bank presidents, plays a critical role in setting the Fed’s monetary policy. The New York Fed President, due to the

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$   Traders are fading the Dot Plot, suggesting about two cuts in 2024. Market is getting ahead of itself again by forecasting MORE cuts than the Fed forecast and Powell has said himself. Market euphoria will continue for a while but eventually it gets too hot and a big pullback will come. It happened at the start of the year when the market priced in SIX rate cuts when the Fed only forecasted 3.

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$   OH MY GOODNESS $SPY $QQQ $IWM PPI PRODUCER PRICE INDEX DATA IS OUT YEARLY: +2.2% YOY below expectations of 2.5% YOY✅ MONTHLY: -0.2% MoM below expectations of +0.1% MoM✅ CPI CAME IN LOWER YESTERDAY, NOW PPI CAME IN LOWER. IT SEEMS LIKE INFLATION IS COMING DOWN.

SUMMARY OF FED DECISION (6/12/24): 1. Fed leaves rates unchanged for 7th straight meeting 2. Officials raise 2024 inflation forecast from 2.4% to 2.6% 3. Median forecasts shows just 1 rate cut in 2024 4. Median forecast shows 100 bps of rate cuts in 2025 5. Fed says inflation has eased "but remains elevated" 6. Median 2024 Core PCE inflation estimate up from 2.6% to 2.8% We expect the Fed to continue their "meeting by meeting" approach. The Fed also said that inflation has made "modest further progress in recent months." Meanwhile, inflation is still above late-2023 levels but down from its recent high. One rate cut in 2024 is the base case.

BREAKING: The Fed releases updated dot-plot showing just 1 interest rate cut in 2024, down from 3 in March. The Fed has not moved interest rates for 7 straight meetings.

Recently, U.S. economic data has been more volatile, and the market has swung back and forth on the Fed's rate cut expectations as a result. Especially after the release of the latest employment data and inflation data, the market divergence is more obvious. Previously, the May nonfarm payrolls data significantly exceeded expectations, CPI 3.3 is also lower than the expected 3.4%, while the core CPI fell even faster.Fed meeting highlightsBitmap AdjustmentThe Fed adjusted its dot plot, reducing the number of rate cuts for the year to one from three in March, while the number of rate cuts for 2025 was revised upward to four from three. Overall, the number of rate cuts was reduced from six to five. Although the market is expected in September and December each have a rate cut, but the Fed cho

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$   TOP TEN HOLDINGS OF THE S&P 500 $SPY & THEIR YTD RETURNS: $AAPL +14% $MSFT +18% $GOOGL +28% $NVDA +157% $BRK.B +14% $LLY +49% $AMZN +23% $AVGO +56% $META +45% S&P 500 Entire Index $SPY +15% Total AUM = $540B $6T sitting on sidelines within money market funds collecting 5%…

Inflation is still high and is expected to fall only once this year but four times in 2025. CPI data  Inflation and Economic Outlook - Inflation has slowed materially but remains too high. Data so far this year is not enough to support a rate cut and more data is needed to boost confidence. - U.S. GDP growth is expected to be 2.1% this year and 2.0% in the next two years. - The labor market has returned to pre-pandemic levels and the strong performance is expected to continue, but the job market is cooling. - If the PCE inflation rate reaches 2.6%-2.7%, it will be a good level. - May CPI data performed well, but the impact on the risk balance needs to be observed.  Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The federal funds rate target range remains unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%. - The me

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ US Economy Cools: Rate Cut in September on the Horizon? The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on June 12th, 2024, showing a core inflation rate of 3.4% year-over-year. This marks a slight decrease from the previous month's reading of 3.6%, offering a glimmer of hope for a potential slowdown in inflation. The Federal Reserve (Fed) has been closely monitoring inflation, aiming to keep it around their target rate of 2%. While 3.4% remains above the target, the downward trend could influence the Fed's decision on interest rates. So, is a rate cut in September a possibility?

Overview Global markets presented a mixed bag on Wednesday, influenced by varying regional dynamics and significant macroeconomic announcements. While US markets largely celebrated new highs driven by reassuring inflation data and stable interest rates, European markets saw gains in anticipation of the US Federal Reserve's policy decision. Meanwhile, Asian markets were mixed, reacting cautiously ahead of the Fed's announcement. US Markets: A Record Day Despite Dow's Dip US stocks showed strong performance overall, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reached new records. The S&P 500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$  rose by 0.9% to close at 5,421.03, and the Nasdaq $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$  surged

Super core CPI is NEGATIVE!  This has provided for whatever Janet and Jerome want to do next.

Fed should cutting rates! Let's to the moon!

B for me

The next FOMC meeting is 2pm, June 12th.Image $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ $MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ $Bitcoin(BTC.USD.CC)$

I’m holding my $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ calls with $540 strike and look at when they expire. I’m bullish on market especially if JPOW tone at FOMC is dovish. I expect it will be + US election year.ImageCPI can easily crash the market tomorrow by 0.1%, but here’s what I think SPY will do. Here’s my position and strategy 🧵You’re suppose to use a stop loss, but you keep getting stopped out right before it runs. How trailing stop loss works? As the price of the stock goes up and you are making money this stop loss FOLLOWS the price up too until it spikes down and hits your stop.Image

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$   Last 7 CPI reports and how the $SPX did that day: May 15th: +1.18% Apr 10th: -.92% (recovered it all next day) Mar 12th: +1.13% Feb 13th: -1.3% (recovered it all next two days) Jan 11th: Flat Dec 12th: +.47% Nov 14th: +1.90% Notice a trend here? Buy buy buy and/or All dips bought. Next CPI data drop is this Wednesday premarket. TODAY!!!!

🔊 Attention Tigers!The moment of truth is almost here with the upcoming May CPI release on 8:30 pm, 12 June. JPMorgan has given us a game plan for the US stock market. It's time to cast your vote on the market's reaction to the CPI data. Which scenario do you think will play out? Let's find out together!"The Scenarios:A. Below 0.2% CPI Increase: 📈 "A 2.5% chance of a significant market gain between 1.75% to 2.50%."B. 0.20% to 0.25% CPI Increase: 📊 "A 12.5% chance of a moderate gain between 1.25% to 1.75%."C. 0.25% to 0.3% CPI Increase: 📉 "A 25% chance of a slight gain between 0.75% to 1.25%."D. 0.3% to 0.35% CPI Increase: 📊 "A 40% chance of a minimal move, either down 0.75% or up to a 0.75% gain."E. 0.35% to 0.4% CPI Increase: 📉 "A 15% chance of a decline between 1% to 1.25%."F. Above 0.4%

Overview: Mixed Signals in U.S. Economic Activity S&P Global's preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June reveals a nuanced picture of the U.S. economy. The service sector is expanding at its fastest pace in over two years, driven by easing price pressures and the prospect of lower interest rates. However, the manufacturing outlook remains bleak, with manufacturers expressing apprehensions about the potential policy impacts of the upcoming elections. The overall PMI composite has reached its highest level in 26 months, indicating resilient business activity as the second quarter draws to a close. Service Sector Rebound The services PMI rose by 0.3 points to 55.1 in June, marking the highest level since April 2022 and exceeding economists' expectations. This indicates a robu

Last week’s FOMC meeting saw rates being held constant, with 2024 projections indicating a single cut and Chair Powell's stance being less dovish than recent meetings. The median 2024 projection showed one cut for this year, down from three in March. However, projections for 2025 and 2026 each indicate four cuts, up from three in March, maintaining a total of nine cuts over the next two and a half years, but with a delayed start and quicker catch-up after year-end. This is despite lower-than-expected May CPI where monthly increase in core CPI was 0.16% (expected: 0.3%), the lowest since August 2021, reducing the year-on-year rate from 3.6% to 3.4%. Headline PPI also dropped 0.2% in May (consensus: 0.1%), and the core index remained constant (consensus: 0.3%). Initial jobless claims unexpec

Market BackgroundThe U.S. CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year in May, and the core CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year, both lower than the previous value and market expectations. This suggests that inflationary pressures have eased and market expectations of a Fed rate cut have strengthened. Nonetheless, the Fed chose to stay put at the June FOMC meeting, but the dot plot shows that Fed officials expect the number of rate cuts to be reduced from three to one this year. This hawkish signal to some extent dampened the market's expectations of rate cuts.Trend Analysis of U.S. Treasury Yields?The measurement of U.S. bond rates should not only take into account traditional interest rate expectations and term premiums, but also focus on the equilibrium relationship between the cost of financing and the return on

Overview The recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held by the Federal Reserve has once again captured the attention of both domestic and international financial markets. The key focus remains on whether the Fed will adjust its short-term lending rates to major financial institutions. Despite market hopes for a rate cut amidst signs of slowing inflation, the Fed has chosen to maintain the current interest rate at 5.5%. This decision raises questions about the Fed's future policy direction and its commitment to its 2% inflation target. Federal Reserve's Role and Decision-Making Process The FOMC, composed of Federal Reserve Board members and rotating regional Fed bank presidents, plays a critical role in setting the Fed’s monetary policy. The New York Fed President, due to the

Recently, U.S. economic data has been more volatile, and the market has swung back and forth on the Fed's rate cut expectations as a result. Especially after the release of the latest employment data and inflation data, the market divergence is more obvious. Previously, the May nonfarm payrolls data significantly exceeded expectations, CPI 3.3 is also lower than the expected 3.4%, while the core CPI fell even faster.Fed meeting highlightsBitmap AdjustmentThe Fed adjusted its dot plot, reducing the number of rate cuts for the year to one from three in March, while the number of rate cuts for 2025 was revised upward to four from three. Overall, the number of rate cuts was reduced from six to five. Although the market is expected in September and December each have a rate cut, but the Fed cho

Inflation is still high and is expected to fall only once this year but four times in 2025. CPI data  Inflation and Economic Outlook - Inflation has slowed materially but remains too high. Data so far this year is not enough to support a rate cut and more data is needed to boost confidence. - U.S. GDP growth is expected to be 2.1% this year and 2.0% in the next two years. - The labor market has returned to pre-pandemic levels and the strong performance is expected to continue, but the job market is cooling. - If the PCE inflation rate reaches 2.6%-2.7%, it will be a good level. - May CPI data performed well, but the impact on the risk balance needs to be observed.  Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The federal funds rate target range remains unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%. - The me

Overview Global markets presented a mixed bag on Wednesday, influenced by varying regional dynamics and significant macroeconomic announcements. While US markets largely celebrated new highs driven by reassuring inflation data and stable interest rates, European markets saw gains in anticipation of the US Federal Reserve's policy decision. Meanwhile, Asian markets were mixed, reacting cautiously ahead of the Fed's announcement. US Markets: A Record Day Despite Dow's Dip US stocks showed strong performance overall, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reached new records. The S&P 500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$  rose by 0.9% to close at 5,421.03, and the Nasdaq $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$  surged

Overview Tuesday's market activity revealed a mixed performance across global indices. While US tech giants propelled the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to new heights, broader market segments faced pressures from political and economic uncertainties, leading to varied results across different regions. US Markets: Tech Surge Drives Records Dow Jones: -120.62 pts (-0.3%) to 38,747.42   S&P 500: +14.53 pts (+0.3%) to 5,375.32   Nasdaq Composite: +153.42 pts (+0.9%) to 17,343.00   In the US, the stock market closed with mixed results. The Dow Jones $DJIA(.DJI)$  dipped by 0.3%, reflecting a pullback in industrial stocks. Meanwhile, tech-heavy indices like the S&P 500 

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ US Economy Cools: Rate Cut in September on the Horizon? The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on June 12th, 2024, showing a core inflation rate of 3.4% year-over-year. This marks a slight decrease from the previous month's reading of 3.6%, offering a glimmer of hope for a potential slowdown in inflation. The Federal Reserve (Fed) has been closely monitoring inflation, aiming to keep it around their target rate of 2%. While 3.4% remains above the target, the downward trend could influence the Fed's decision on interest rates. So, is a rate cut in September a possibility?

The next FOMC meeting is 2pm, June 12th.Image $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ $MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ $Bitcoin(BTC.USD.CC)$

🔊 Attention Tigers!The moment of truth is almost here with the upcoming May CPI release on 8:30 pm, 12 June. JPMorgan has given us a game plan for the US stock market. It's time to cast your vote on the market's reaction to the CPI data. Which scenario do you think will play out? Let's find out together!"The Scenarios:A. Below 0.2% CPI Increase: 📈 "A 2.5% chance of a significant market gain between 1.75% to 2.50%."B. 0.20% to 0.25% CPI Increase: 📊 "A 12.5% chance of a moderate gain between 1.25% to 1.75%."C. 0.25% to 0.3% CPI Increase: 📉 "A 25% chance of a slight gain between 0.75% to 1.25%."D. 0.3% to 0.35% CPI Increase: 📊 "A 40% chance of a minimal move, either down 0.75% or up to a 0.75% gain."E. 0.35% to 0.4% CPI Increase: 📉 "A 15% chance of a decline between 1% to 1.25%."F. Above 0.4%

Public Holidays China and Hong Kong are closed on 10 June 2024 as they celebrate the Dragon Boat Festival. There are no public holidays in the USA and Singapore in the coming week. Economic Calendar (10Jun24) Notable Highlights In the coming week, we will receive news about the 10-year note option and the 30-year bond option. When the bond is more attractive, we can expect more funds to flow into these assets. The most important macro data for the coming week would be that for the consumer price index (CPI). This is one of the key references to tracking inflation in the country. Sticky or stubborn inflation will further push back the Federal Reserve’s plan of cutting the interest rate. The FOMC will be making their economic projections in the coming week. T

Market Outlook of S&P500 - 10Jun24 Observations: The MACD indicator is on an uptrend. A top crossover is forming and we should see a reversal soon. A double top is forming and we should expect a reversal soon. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has crossed the zero line in the middle which implies an uptrend. Yet, there buying momentum seems to be changing to a selling one. Let us monitor the development in the coming days. Moving Averages (MA). Both the MA50 line and the MA200 line are on an uptrend. The last candle is above both the MA 50 line and the MA 200 line. Thus, it could be read as bullish for the long term and the mid-term. Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). The 3 EMA lines are on an uptrend. I have replaced Stochastic with CMF to incorporate consideration of volume. Stochastic and

I’m holding my $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ calls with $540 strike and look at when they expire. I’m bullish on market especially if JPOW tone at FOMC is dovish. I expect it will be + US election year.ImageCPI can easily crash the market tomorrow by 0.1%, but here’s what I think SPY will do. Here’s my position and strategy 🧵You’re suppose to use a stop loss, but you keep getting stopped out right before it runs. How trailing stop loss works? As the price of the stock goes up and you are making money this stop loss FOLLOWS the price up too until it spikes down and hits your stop.Image

SUMMARY OF FED DECISION (6/12/24): 1. Fed leaves rates unchanged for 7th straight meeting 2. Officials raise 2024 inflation forecast from 2.4% to 2.6% 3. Median forecasts shows just 1 rate cut in 2024 4. Median forecast shows 100 bps of rate cuts in 2025 5. Fed says inflation has eased "but remains elevated" 6. Median 2024 Core PCE inflation estimate up from 2.6% to 2.8% We expect the Fed to continue their "meeting by meeting" approach. The Fed also said that inflation has made "modest further progress in recent months." Meanwhile, inflation is still above late-2023 levels but down from its recent high. One rate cut in 2024 is the base case.

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$   Traders are fading the Dot Plot, suggesting about two cuts in 2024. Market is getting ahead of itself again by forecasting MORE cuts than the Fed forecast and Powell has said himself. Market euphoria will continue for a while but eventually it gets too hot and a big pullback will come. It happened at the start of the year when the market priced in SIX rate cuts when the Fed only forecasted 3.

This pain in the ass summer rally will not pay heed to CPI or FED dot plan. The AI fueled craze rally will turn this bull market into bubble market with little regards to downside risks or macro economics. Almost all TA points to a rally unless we have some very drastic and unexpected factors like a FED hike or 0.5% increase for core prices. Maybe a combo of both is needed. The market is heading towards AI dreamland this summer and an ugly crash is coming up when we least expected it to come. Investing and trading stock market without a correction right now will be like drabbling in GME. Just hope you are not holding the bags when the crash comes!

Personally I predict the market will maintain uptrend after tmr CPI announced. Maybe intraday will be wild swing, but after that trend move resume normal. CPI is just an past data info, and just an excuse of Wall Street want which direction the market move to.  Fed Reserve is under the pressure to reduce interest rate ahead of US election. And the timeline is getting approaching. So it doesn't matter what the CPI result is, the Feb meeting and Powell speech will comfort the investor that inflation is gettting contained, or need more coming data monitor further (as usual). 

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$   Last 7 CPI reports and how the $SPX did that day: May 15th: +1.18% Apr 10th: -.92% (recovered it all next day) Mar 12th: +1.13% Feb 13th: -1.3% (recovered it all next two days) Jan 11th: Flat Dec 12th: +.47% Nov 14th: +1.90% Notice a trend here? Buy buy buy and/or All dips bought. Next CPI data drop is this Wednesday premarket. TODAY!!!!

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$   TOP TEN HOLDINGS OF THE S&P 500 $SPY & THEIR YTD RETURNS: $AAPL +14% $MSFT +18% $GOOGL +28% $NVDA +157% $BRK.B +14% $LLY +49% $AMZN +23% $AVGO +56% $META +45% S&P 500 Entire Index $SPY +15% Total AUM = $540B $6T sitting on sidelines within money market funds collecting 5%…