To The Moon

Hello. The Treasury's buyback tool was upsized again, and the bond market bought it for half a day. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said on Thursday that the size of each long-dated Treasury buyback had gone from US$2 billion to at least US$4 billion, and could rise further. The 30-year yield fell as much as 10 basis points and the dollar index weakened — and then the bond market pushed back. The reason is simple enough: buybacks deal with liquidity, while the deficit, inflation and the term premium have not moved at all. There was a new variable that day: the consumer. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed down 0.87 per cent and $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ 1.32 per cent, about 600 points — Barro

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ rose sharply on August 20 as Bitcoin crossed $70,000 and Washington advanced a more accommodating regulatory framework. The rally reflects genuine strategic upside: clearer rules can encourage token issuance, institutional participation and trading in the United States. It also depends heavily on political and market variables outside Coinbase’s control. The immediate events occurred on two different dates. On August 18, the Securities and Exchange Commission proposed “Regulation Crypto Assets,” which would create tailored exemptions for certain crypto-related investment-contract offerings. One exemption would cover as much as $5 million over four years; another would allow up to $75 million in each 12-month period wi

Over the past week, the core narrative shaping global asset pricing revolved around two themes. On the geopolitical front, negotiations between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz reached an impasse, with both sides engaging in heated exchanges and refusing to yield. According to Bloomberg tanker-tracking data, Middle Eastern crude oil loadings fell from 20 million barrels per day in early July to 12 million barrels per day by the end of July, with the supply disruption shifting from a “risk premium” into a “physical supply shortfall.” On the macroeconomic front, U.S. headline CPI rose 3.4% year over year in July, while core CPI increased 2.5%; month-over-month growth resumed. PPI rose 4.7% year over year, while nonfarm payroll employment unexpectedly declined by 23,000 in

Weekly Outlook Summary The central view this week is as follows: After weaker U.S. employment data, expectations for further rate hikes eased, temporarily supporting U.S. equities and risk assets. However, the rebound in oil prices, the renewed repricing of inflation, and rising Treasury yields are weakening the fundamental support for further gains in high-valuation U.S. equities. In the near term, the market may again become range-bound. The strategic focus should therefore shift from outright directional positioning toward capturing a rebound in volatility, collecting option time value, and implementing strict risk controls. Policy expectations remain the primary market driver. Following the release of the nonfarm payrolls report, market expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hik

Speaker: Ross Dong @Ross_Macro_Trading (Founder of Gongxing Academy and Partner at Morning Cloud Asset Management)Live Date: August 12, 2026 Ross Dong remains bullish on AI as a long-term technology cycle—but that did not stop his fund from cutting semiconductor and AI exposure in June. In this livestream, Ross explained the warning signals behind that decision, why he still sees selective upside in U.S. equities, and where he is gradually putting cash back to work—from hyperscalers and financials to power, energy and other less-crowded parts of the AI value chain. Want a deeper dive? We broke this session into 4 full recap articles: Live Recap 1: Why

After the sharp pullback and subsequent rebound in the previous phase, major asset classes have returned to a relatively calm pattern. However, the fact that some assets have stalled should not be viewed as a positive signal. If they fail to extend their rebound or make new highs over the coming weeks, it may indicate that another leg lower is approaching. The first market to watch is crypto, which we have consistently treated as a leading indicator. Although its reference value has deteriorated meaningfully compared with one to two years ago, it has still shown signs of acting as an early mover in the current market cycle. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum rebounded sharply from late June, but have spent the past six weeks hovering near their lower ranges.

Following the stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls data, the market’s perceived probability of Federal Reserve rate hikes has continued to decline. The market now needs the next payrolls report to establish a new set of expectations. This means that, before the next data release, sentiment is likely to remain constructive. Even without a major trend, the market is likely to stay range-bound. (Note: Chart circulating via social media, original source unknown. Used for discussion purposes only. If you own this content, please DM for proper credit or takedown.) Over the weekend, there were further developments related to the Strait of Hormuz. The market has largely abandoned expectations for meaningful progress in negotiations, and there may not be significant movement even before the mid

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CAPITALAND CHINA TRUST GOING XD SOON 

Hello. The biggest story last night was Nvidia out raising money: it is working with Blackstone, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, KKR and others on a consortium to fund AI infrastructure, for as much as US$500 billion, to be spent on AI chips, power generation and data centres. $英伟达(NVDA)$ fell 2.86 per cent on the news. It didn't fall because demand is short. It fell because people have started to wonder whether Nvidia is creating that demand itself: it has signed agreements worth hundreds of billions of dollars with participants across the AI ecosystem, lifting overall demand and valuations, while those counterparties themselves depend on the AI boom staying alive. That structure has a name. Circular financing. Jensen Huang answered on

Bullish on gold since back in spotlight.

It looks more like a **policy-repricing trade than a pure “inflation is falling” trade**. The weak July payrolls report has already reduced the perceived need for another Fed hike. Markets now put the September hike probability around 50%, down materially from a week earlier. Wednesday's CPI is therefore the confirmation test: a soft print would combine weaker employment with moderating inflation, strengthening the case for the Fed to stay on hold and potentially bringing eventual cuts back into discussion. Silver's outperformance is particularly interesting. If this were mainly a fear or recession trade, I would expect gold to dominate. Silver doing better suggests investors are pricing a more favourable combination: **lower real yields + weaker dollar + no severe recession**. That gives

$Intel(INTC)$announced a $15 billion common stock offering, with underwriters holding a 30-day option for an additional $2.25 billion in shares, bringing total potential proceeds to $17.25 billion. Funds will support growth initiatives including AI computing, Physical AI, custom chips, advanced packaging and foundry services, plus capital expenditures and working capital. Shares fell ~4% on the news, a typical reaction. Stock offerings dilute existing shareholders, and with Intel in a heavy investment phase, markets naturally worry about future fundraising. However, paired with just-released Q2 results, the offering signals Intel may accelerate 14A and advanced packaging capacity buildout. CEO Pat Gelsinger previously set two condi

AI optical-networking stocks suffered a broad valuation reset. COHR dropped 14.2%, LITE lost 8.6%, and AXTI plunged 16.7%. So far, there is little evidence that AI-driven optical demand has suddenly weakened. The selloff looks more like aggressive de-risking ahead of Coherent’s earnings—but expectations are now so high that strong growth alone may no longer be enough. AI Optics Became the Market’s Biggest Pain Point The latest session was brutal for optical-networking stocks: $Coherent(COHR)$: −14.2% $Lumentum(LITE)$: −8.6% $AXT Inc.(AXTI)$: −16.7% $Fabrinet(FN)$: −6.3% $Applied Optoe

Bullish on gold. China will keep buying

A sharp $300 move in gold over just three trading sessions is rarely driven by a single factor. It is typically the result of tactical market mechanics (a short squeeze/gamma squeeze) acting as the spark, while deep macroeconomic shifts provide the fuel. 1. Short Squeeze vs. New Structural Drivers Verdict: A short squeeze fuels the speed of a 3-day spike, but sustained holding above breakout levels indicates institutional re-allocation and structural buying. 2. Is GLD Still a Good Engine for Long-Term Exposure? SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ remains the benchmark vehicle for institutional gold exposure, but whether it is the best choice depends on your investment structure. Weekly gold has broken above a multi-week congestion pattern,

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Definitely bullish. The yen carry trade is being unraveled, regardless of interventions by the us and japanese central banks to prop up the yen. US inflation is certainly on a upward trend. The AI euphoria is just masking the sputtering economy.

Hello. The Treasury's buyback tool was upsized again, and the bond market bought it for half a day. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said on Thursday that the size of each long-dated Treasury buyback had gone from US$2 billion to at least US$4 billion, and could rise further. The 30-year yield fell as much as 10 basis points and the dollar index weakened — and then the bond market pushed back. The reason is simple enough: buybacks deal with liquidity, while the deficit, inflation and the term premium have not moved at all. There was a new variable that day: the consumer. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed down 0.87 per cent and $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ 1.32 per cent, about 600 points — Barro

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ rose sharply on August 20 as Bitcoin crossed $70,000 and Washington advanced a more accommodating regulatory framework. The rally reflects genuine strategic upside: clearer rules can encourage token issuance, institutional participation and trading in the United States. It also depends heavily on political and market variables outside Coinbase’s control. The immediate events occurred on two different dates. On August 18, the Securities and Exchange Commission proposed “Regulation Crypto Assets,” which would create tailored exemptions for certain crypto-related investment-contract offerings. One exemption would cover as much as $5 million over four years; another would allow up to $75 million in each 12-month period wi

Over the past week, the core narrative shaping global asset pricing revolved around two themes. On the geopolitical front, negotiations between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz reached an impasse, with both sides engaging in heated exchanges and refusing to yield. According to Bloomberg tanker-tracking data, Middle Eastern crude oil loadings fell from 20 million barrels per day in early July to 12 million barrels per day by the end of July, with the supply disruption shifting from a “risk premium” into a “physical supply shortfall.” On the macroeconomic front, U.S. headline CPI rose 3.4% year over year in July, while core CPI increased 2.5%; month-over-month growth resumed. PPI rose 4.7% year over year, while nonfarm payroll employment unexpectedly declined by 23,000 in

Weekly Outlook Summary The central view this week is as follows: After weaker U.S. employment data, expectations for further rate hikes eased, temporarily supporting U.S. equities and risk assets. However, the rebound in oil prices, the renewed repricing of inflation, and rising Treasury yields are weakening the fundamental support for further gains in high-valuation U.S. equities. In the near term, the market may again become range-bound. The strategic focus should therefore shift from outright directional positioning toward capturing a rebound in volatility, collecting option time value, and implementing strict risk controls. Policy expectations remain the primary market driver. Following the release of the nonfarm payrolls report, market expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hik

Speaker: Ross Dong @Ross_Macro_Trading (Founder of Gongxing Academy and Partner at Morning Cloud Asset Management)Live Date: August 12, 2026 Ross Dong remains bullish on AI as a long-term technology cycle—but that did not stop his fund from cutting semiconductor and AI exposure in June. In this livestream, Ross explained the warning signals behind that decision, why he still sees selective upside in U.S. equities, and where he is gradually putting cash back to work—from hyperscalers and financials to power, energy and other less-crowded parts of the AI value chain. Want a deeper dive? We broke this session into 4 full recap articles: Live Recap 1: Why

Following the stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls data, the market’s perceived probability of Federal Reserve rate hikes has continued to decline. The market now needs the next payrolls report to establish a new set of expectations. This means that, before the next data release, sentiment is likely to remain constructive. Even without a major trend, the market is likely to stay range-bound. (Note: Chart circulating via social media, original source unknown. Used for discussion purposes only. If you own this content, please DM for proper credit or takedown.) Over the weekend, there were further developments related to the Strait of Hormuz. The market has largely abandoned expectations for meaningful progress in negotiations, and there may not be significant movement even before the mid

After the sharp pullback and subsequent rebound in the previous phase, major asset classes have returned to a relatively calm pattern. However, the fact that some assets have stalled should not be viewed as a positive signal. If they fail to extend their rebound or make new highs over the coming weeks, it may indicate that another leg lower is approaching. The first market to watch is crypto, which we have consistently treated as a leading indicator. Although its reference value has deteriorated meaningfully compared with one to two years ago, it has still shown signs of acting as an early mover in the current market cycle. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum rebounded sharply from late June, but have spent the past six weeks hovering near their lower ranges.

$Intel(INTC)$announced a $15 billion common stock offering, with underwriters holding a 30-day option for an additional $2.25 billion in shares, bringing total potential proceeds to $17.25 billion. Funds will support growth initiatives including AI computing, Physical AI, custom chips, advanced packaging and foundry services, plus capital expenditures and working capital. Shares fell ~4% on the news, a typical reaction. Stock offerings dilute existing shareholders, and with Intel in a heavy investment phase, markets naturally worry about future fundraising. However, paired with just-released Q2 results, the offering signals Intel may accelerate 14A and advanced packaging capacity buildout. CEO Pat Gelsinger previously set two condi

A sharp $300 move in gold over just three trading sessions is rarely driven by a single factor. It is typically the result of tactical market mechanics (a short squeeze/gamma squeeze) acting as the spark, while deep macroeconomic shifts provide the fuel. 1. Short Squeeze vs. New Structural Drivers Verdict: A short squeeze fuels the speed of a 3-day spike, but sustained holding above breakout levels indicates institutional re-allocation and structural buying. 2. Is GLD Still a Good Engine for Long-Term Exposure? SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ remains the benchmark vehicle for institutional gold exposure, but whether it is the best choice depends on your investment structure. Weekly gold has broken above a multi-week congestion pattern,

Review of Last Week's Strategies and Profitability Welcome to this week's Macro Strategy Weekly. As is our tradition, let's first review the outcomes of the strategies discussed in last week's report: Macro Strategy Weekly: How to trade Fed-Week Volatility and the Crack-Spread Retreat Strategy Contributor: @程俊Dream US Equities (Nasdaq): Last week's limit orders were not filled, but we are keeping them active. We maintain limit buy orders for the Nasdaq at 26,080 and 24,720 (half position each), with a stop-loss set below 23,000, and target prices at 30,500 and 33,800. Gold: We anticipated a rebound last week but lacked an ideal entry point, so we pr

The long-awaited breakout in gold’s rebound finally arrived last week. With a 7% gain in a single week, gold quickly achieved the measured target of its daily-chart double-bottom breakout. The question now is whether the rebound can continue—and, if so, where the next major resistance levels may emerge. To answer that question, we should first compare the price action of gold futures and spot gold. After the front-month futures contract rolled over to December, the time-related premium created a spread of roughly 1.5%, or approximately $60–$70, between futures and spot prices. More importantly, futures have already broken out of the descending channel that had been in place since the beginning of the year, while spot gold has yet to make a similar breakout. In the spot market, the key resi

The first week of each month is usually the most important, as the latest non-farm payrolls data are released during this period. These figures often set the tone for the market throughout the rest of the month. This is particularly true when the market is highly sensitive to interest-rate expectations, as the release can quickly shift investor preferences. For this reason, I usually adopt a relatively cautious stance during the first week of the month. The non-farm payrolls report released this month significantly exceeded market expectations. While the market had expected an increase of 80,000 jobs, the actual figure showed a decline of 23,000 jobs. This dealt a blow to expectations of a stronger US economy. Meanwhile, the probability of a rate hike in September fell directly from 60% to

Hello. The biggest story last night was Nvidia out raising money: it is working with Blackstone, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, KKR and others on a consortium to fund AI infrastructure, for as much as US$500 billion, to be spent on AI chips, power generation and data centres. $英伟达(NVDA)$ fell 2.86 per cent on the news. It didn't fall because demand is short. It fell because people have started to wonder whether Nvidia is creating that demand itself: it has signed agreements worth hundreds of billions of dollars with participants across the AI ecosystem, lifting overall demand and valuations, while those counterparties themselves depend on the AI boom staying alive. That structure has a name. Circular financing. Jensen Huang answered on

AI optical-networking stocks suffered a broad valuation reset. COHR dropped 14.2%, LITE lost 8.6%, and AXTI plunged 16.7%. So far, there is little evidence that AI-driven optical demand has suddenly weakened. The selloff looks more like aggressive de-risking ahead of Coherent’s earnings—but expectations are now so high that strong growth alone may no longer be enough. AI Optics Became the Market’s Biggest Pain Point The latest session was brutal for optical-networking stocks: $Coherent(COHR)$: −14.2% $Lumentum(LITE)$: −8.6% $AXT Inc.(AXTI)$: −16.7% $Fabrinet(FN)$: −6.3% $Applied Optoe

Wall Street has just given the bulls another reason to celebrate. J.P. Morgan raised its 2026 year-end target for the S&P 500 from 7,800 to 8,000. Based on Friday’s close of 7,757.64, however, that leaves only about 3.1% of upside. At least seven Wall Street brokerages now expect the index to reach the 8,000 level by year-end. Reuters The headline sounds extremely bullish. But the more important question is not whether the S&P 500 can gain another 3%. It is why J.P. Morgan became more confident after the index had already reached a record high. This Rally Is Finally Getting More Earnings Support Of the 436 S&P 500 companies that had reported second-quarter results through Friday morning, 85.1% beat analyst expectations. That is well above the long-term average of 68%. J.P. Morg

Hello. Friday's payrolls report was genuinely bad: July payrolls fell by 23,000, the May and June gains were revised down by a combined 103,000, and hourly earnings rose just 3.2 per cent year on year. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.62 per cent to a record close. $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ rose 1.30 per cent and $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ 0.28 per cent. Data that bad turned out to be good news, because the market immediately cut the odds of a September rate rise to about 44 per cent. Loosen the rate outlook and valuations get room to breathe: $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ ros

🥇 My Gold Covered Call Strategy: How I Earn Income Even When Gold Falls For many investors, gold is seen as a safe-haven asset that protects wealth during uncertain times. While many people simply buy gold and hope the price rises, I prefer to make my investment work harder by using a covered call strategy. This approach allows me to generate additional income while holding my gold ETF, even during periods when gold prices move sideways or decline. Recently, gold experienced a sharp correction. After reaching around 4,800, it fell back to around 4,000. Despite this decline, my portfolio still managed to remain slightly profitable because of the option premiums I collected from selling covered calls. This experience reinforced why I believe covered calls are an excellent strategy for long-t

Just this past Monday, the S&P 500 index successfully broke through its 20-day moving average, while the Nasdaq index solidly reclaimed its 20-week moving average. According to the technical rules I outlined previously, when these two critical indicators are breached simultaneously, we should pivot our stance to the upside in alignment with the trend. Sure enough, within just one day, both major indices surged another few percentage points, and the S&P 500 even came close to returning to its previous high, right where the initial drop began. Looking at this price action, I believe many are already declaring "the return of the king" for US equities, assuming the market has completely finished its shakeout and re-entered a primary uptrend. However, I must issue a warning: the current

Gold is displaying a seemingly counterintuitive pattern. As signs of easing tensions emerge in the Middle East, gold has staged one of its strongest rebounds in months. On August 6, spot gold climbed as high as $4,271 per ounce, its highest level since June 18 and its fourth consecutive session of gains. U.S. gold futures traded near $4,330 after recording their largest one-day increase since February. (Reuters) Gold-mining stocks showed even greater momentum. On August 5, gold futures rose approximately 3.5% and reclaimed their 50-day moving average. The $VanEck Gold Miners ETF(GDX)$ jumped about 7.3%, while $Newmont(NEM)$, $Agnico Eagle Mines(AEM)$ and

The low-side bid we had kept sitting under the Nasdaq for two weeks was never filled. With the index stabilising and rebounding off 27,000, and with several other headline developments turning, the correction that has run for more than a month may now be close to its end. What we do expect from here is dispersion: the divide between what stays strong and what has already topped out should become considerably more visible. Set against the S&P and the Dow, the Nasdaq was clearly the US index that gave back the most in this round of correction. Gains and losses share the same source, so it is no surprise that AI and technology names — the hardest-hit group — were what dragged the index lower. In practice, though, the pullback did not even reach the 61.8% retracement. That is an indirect r