To The Moon

FlowState Alpha · 2026/06/29 Coverage: Global market dynamics, June 22–27, 2026Core question: Why did the "September reckoning" we flagged arrive early? Is this froth being squeezed out, or systemic risk? I. What Happened This Week \*CNBC/Yahoo Finance/Morningstar; \*\*Brent August contract The week's story in one line: megacaps and chip stocks led the decline, but capital did not leave — it rotated from "story" into "cash flow." II. What We Said Two Weeks Ago In our June 22 issue, we wrote one line: "June is the vacation. September is the reckoning." This week the market answered with a -4.6% Nasdaq decline: the reckoning came earlier than expected. Worth pausing on: why earlier? We anchored the timing to "September, when the Task Force report lands," assuming markets would wait for polic

My word for the first half of 2026 is DiamondHands because despite market pullbacks and scary headlines, I held onto my highest-conviction positions and stayed invested.

My word for the first half of 2026 is Volatility because my portfolio experienced sharp swings, reminding me that investing is rarely a smooth journey.

My word for the first half of 2026 is AI because artificial intelligence dominated both market headlines and my portfolio decisions throughout the first half of the year

Elevated VIXEQ-VIX predated yet another SOXX (semiconductor ETF) drawdown, now -6.12% on the day. Software is the beneficiary of this, and low-quality names have gotten a lift.This isn't just another garden-variety dip in the chip sector. The widening spread between VIXEQ (a gauge of single-stock implied volatility across S&P 500 constituents) and the headline VIX has been flashing warning signs for weeks, reflecting heightened dispersion and investor angst concentrated in a handful of high-flying names. When single-stock vol outpaces index vol to this degree, it often precedes turbulence in the most crowded trades—precisely the AI infrastructure frenzy that has propelled semiconductors to extraordinary gains.Today's sharp reversal in SOXX underscores a classic late-cycle rotation dyna

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The bull isn't dead, but "AI must pay." In the tug-of-war between soft landing and bubble peak, cash flow quality > growth story, and defensive rotation > single-track conviction. As of June 30, 2026 | Data sourced from aggregated market data H1 in One Thread: A Seller's Market for AI Infrastructure Summing up the first half 2026, the rally can be traced along one clear thread: AI compute demand → Semiconductor/storage/equipment orders surge → Earnings beats → Valuation re-rating → Leveraged capital floods in → Positive feedback loop Semiconductors, storage, and the AI supply chain were the absolute core of H1, full stop; Concept themes (lidar, hydrogen, OLED) going parabolic shows market capital hunting for "the next AI" narrative beyond the main thread; High-beta growth style compr

🗞️ Ai has been the markets biggest winner... But I'm starting to think H2 won't simply reward the companies with the best AI story. It will reward the companies that actually turn AI investment into earnings growth. We've already seen billions poured into chips, cloud infrastructure and data centres. The next challenge is proving those investments can generate sustainable profits. That's why I'm paying more attention to quarterly results than daily headlines. 🔥 AI isn't over. But I do think the market is becoming more selective. The companies that continue executing will likely keep winning. The ones that disappoint could be punished much harder than they were in H1. For me, H2 feels less like chasing hype and more like separating the leaders from the followers. 💬 What do you think?

🌟🌟🌟One of my best performing ETFs in 1H 26 is $Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF(SOXQ)$ .  SOXQ has jumped 93.3% year todate and in the past year, it has skyrocketed 156%. SOXQ tracks the legendary PHLX Semiconductor Index, holding a basket of 31 premier chip stocks.  SOXQ 's top holdings include $Micron Technology(MU)$ , $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ and many more. I was pleasantly surprised by SOXQ'S amazing performance.  I believe SOXQ will continue its exponential growth in 2H 2026.

The first half of 2026 has officially come to an end, and Singapore’s equity market entered the second half from a position of strength. As of the end of June, the $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ closed at 5,170.65, up 11.29% year to date. June also remained positive, with the index gaining 2.64% for the month. At first glance, this looks like a strong and steady market rally. But beneath the headline index, performance was much more uneven. Capital did not move across the whole market equally. Instead, investors concentrated on a few clear themes: banks, SGX, semiconductor equipment, industrial machinery, renewable electricity, China-linked ETFs, and selected REITs. The first half showed that Singapore’s market was not simply defe

$Comcast(CMCSA)$ is finally breaking itself apart. The company announced plans to spin off NBCUniversal and Sky into a separate publicly traded company, leaving Comcast focused on broadband, wireless, business services, and connectivity. This is not a small restructuring. This is Comcast admitting that the old media-conglomerate model no longer works the way it used to. For years, Comcast tried to combine distribution and content under one roof. It owned the pipes through broadband and cable. It owned the entertainment through NBCUniversal, Peacock, Universal Studios, theme parks, and Sky. In theory, that made sense. In practice, the market did not reward it. Now Comcast is trying something different. Instead of asking investors to value one comp

The first half of 2026 has officially come to an end, and at first glance, Australia’s equity market looked surprisingly uneventful. As of June 30, $S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ closed at 8,778.7, up just 0.74% year to date. On a financial-year basis, the index returned roughly 2.7%–2.8%, making FY2026 one of the weaker years in recent history. While major overseas markets were driven by AI enthusiasm and large-cap technology, Australia spent much of the year battling higher interest rates and a slowing domestic economy, leaving the headline index largely stuck in place. Macro headwind throughout the first half: rate hike. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised rates three consecutive times in 2026, lifting the cash rate to 4.35%

My gain for first half of 2026 was 8%+ and slightly underperform the indices. On the bright side, it is at least doing better than last year and can pay for my caifan.

News of companies massive "rush" into AI spending keep triggering a caution of FOMO high-risk high-reward; expect more challenging second half.

The one word is Borrow because only borrow to invest can get your furthur.

Replying to @MKTrader:Muthu boy is selling Corningware at NTUC. $Corning(GLW)$ //@MKTrader:I got 20 squares. @Shernice軒嬣 2000 this 1st half, my life is up-down-left-right. looking forward to 2nd half.

AI's gains have been unusually concentrated. While the S&P 500 rose only about 8%, memory and AI infrastructure names surged several hundred percent, showing how selective this rally has been. Q2 earnings are the next major test. Strong AI-driven revenue, margins and capex could justify current valuations. Any signs of slowing demand or weaker guidance could trigger sharp profit-taking. For H2, I'd avoid chasing memory after its huge run. I'd keep core exposure but gradually diversify into other AI infrastructure areas such as power, grid equipment, cooling, networking and cloud. The AI theme remains intact, but spreading exposure across the value chain offers a more balanced risk-reward than doubling down on the year's biggest winners.

The strong quarter reflects improving risk appetite, easing geopolitical fears and growing expectations of Fed cuts. Those factors can support equities into H2, particularly if inflation continues to cool and earnings, especially from AI and semiconductor leaders, remain robust. That said, record highs also mean valuations leave less room for disappointment. Any setback in earnings, inflation, or rate expectations could trigger sharp pullbacks. Rather than viewing it as an all-in buying opportunity or a signal to exit completely, a balanced approach makes sense. Long-term investors can stay invested while gradually trimming outsized winners, rebalancing portfolios, and keeping cash available to deploy during corrections. The primary trend still appears constructive, but after such a powerf

My portfolio declined by SGD 33,000 in June 2026, representing a 5.6% loss. Despite this setback, year-to-date dividends remain strong at SGD 13,000. My core portfolio consists of Singapore and Hong Kong high-dividend stocks, complemented by a satellite portfolio in Hang Seng Technology stocks. Right now, it feels like Hong Kong stocks have entered a bear market, largely because AI hardware is sucking up all the global capital. While I missed out on the AI rally, I have no intention of chasing it at these levels. Instead, I’m sticking to my strategy and adding to my dividend positions. I also recently started a new position in the Global X Hang Seng High Dividend Yield ETF (03110), and my current plan is to dollar-cost average (DCA) into this ETF throughout the bear market. To fund this, I

I got 20 squares. @Shernice軒嬣 2000 this 1st half, my life is up-down-left-right. looking forward to 2nd half.

Elevated VIXEQ-VIX predated yet another SOXX (semiconductor ETF) drawdown, now -6.12% on the day. Software is the beneficiary of this, and low-quality names have gotten a lift.This isn't just another garden-variety dip in the chip sector. The widening spread between VIXEQ (a gauge of single-stock implied volatility across S&P 500 constituents) and the headline VIX has been flashing warning signs for weeks, reflecting heightened dispersion and investor angst concentrated in a handful of high-flying names. When single-stock vol outpaces index vol to this degree, it often precedes turbulence in the most crowded trades—precisely the AI infrastructure frenzy that has propelled semiconductors to extraordinary gains.Today's sharp reversal in SOXX underscores a classic late-cycle rotation dyna

The bull isn't dead, but "AI must pay." In the tug-of-war between soft landing and bubble peak, cash flow quality > growth story, and defensive rotation > single-track conviction. As of June 30, 2026 | Data sourced from aggregated market data H1 in One Thread: A Seller's Market for AI Infrastructure Summing up the first half 2026, the rally can be traced along one clear thread: AI compute demand → Semiconductor/storage/equipment orders surge → Earnings beats → Valuation re-rating → Leveraged capital floods in → Positive feedback loop Semiconductors, storage, and the AI supply chain were the absolute core of H1, full stop; Concept themes (lidar, hydrogen, OLED) going parabolic shows market capital hunting for "the next AI" narrative beyond the main thread; High-beta growth style compr

$Comcast(CMCSA)$ is finally breaking itself apart. The company announced plans to spin off NBCUniversal and Sky into a separate publicly traded company, leaving Comcast focused on broadband, wireless, business services, and connectivity. This is not a small restructuring. This is Comcast admitting that the old media-conglomerate model no longer works the way it used to. For years, Comcast tried to combine distribution and content under one roof. It owned the pipes through broadband and cable. It owned the entertainment through NBCUniversal, Peacock, Universal Studios, theme parks, and Sky. In theory, that made sense. In practice, the market did not reward it. Now Comcast is trying something different. Instead of asking investors to value one comp

The first half of 2026 has officially come to an end, and Singapore’s equity market entered the second half from a position of strength. As of the end of June, the $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ closed at 5,170.65, up 11.29% year to date. June also remained positive, with the index gaining 2.64% for the month. At first glance, this looks like a strong and steady market rally. But beneath the headline index, performance was much more uneven. Capital did not move across the whole market equally. Instead, investors concentrated on a few clear themes: banks, SGX, semiconductor equipment, industrial machinery, renewable electricity, China-linked ETFs, and selected REITs. The first half showed that Singapore’s market was not simply defe

The first half of 2026 has officially come to an end, and at first glance, Australia’s equity market looked surprisingly uneventful. As of June 30, $S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ closed at 8,778.7, up just 0.74% year to date. On a financial-year basis, the index returned roughly 2.7%–2.8%, making FY2026 one of the weaker years in recent history. While major overseas markets were driven by AI enthusiasm and large-cap technology, Australia spent much of the year battling higher interest rates and a slowing domestic economy, leaving the headline index largely stuck in place. Macro headwind throughout the first half: rate hike. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised rates three consecutive times in 2026, lifting the cash rate to 4.35%

My word for the first half of 2026 is DiamondHands because despite market pullbacks and scary headlines, I held onto my highest-conviction positions and stayed invested.

My word for the first half of 2026 is AI because artificial intelligence dominated both market headlines and my portfolio decisions throughout the first half of the year

My word for the first half of 2026 is Volatility because my portfolio experienced sharp swings, reminding me that investing is rarely a smooth journey.

$ServiceNow(NOW)$   $NVIDIA(NVDA)$  

The first half of 2026 is officially over. As of June 30, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is up 8.7% year to date, $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ has gained 11.1%, $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ is up 8.6%, while the Russell 2000 has surged more than 20%, making small caps the clear leader. The index looked calm, but stock picking was anything but. AI hardware names produced multiple multi-baggers, while software stocks briefly erased nearly $1 trillion in market value. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index swung from gains of more than 6% in a single day to losses approaching 8%. What Happened in the First Half? The Iran conflict pushed oil prices higher

🗞️ Ai has been the markets biggest winner... But I'm starting to think H2 won't simply reward the companies with the best AI story. It will reward the companies that actually turn AI investment into earnings growth. We've already seen billions poured into chips, cloud infrastructure and data centres. The next challenge is proving those investments can generate sustainable profits. That's why I'm paying more attention to quarterly results than daily headlines. 🔥 AI isn't over. But I do think the market is becoming more selective. The companies that continue executing will likely keep winning. The ones that disappoint could be punished much harder than they were in H1. For me, H2 feels less like chasing hype and more like separating the leaders from the followers. 💬 What do you think?

🌟🌟🌟One of my best performing ETFs in 1H 26 is $Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF(SOXQ)$ .  SOXQ has jumped 93.3% year todate and in the past year, it has skyrocketed 156%. SOXQ tracks the legendary PHLX Semiconductor Index, holding a basket of 31 premier chip stocks.  SOXQ 's top holdings include $Micron Technology(MU)$ , $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ and many more. I was pleasantly surprised by SOXQ'S amazing performance.  I believe SOXQ will continue its exponential growth in 2H 2026.

Become a Trader Profesional 

FlowState Alpha · 2026/06/29 Coverage: Global market dynamics, June 22–27, 2026Core question: Why did the "September reckoning" we flagged arrive early? Is this froth being squeezed out, or systemic risk? I. What Happened This Week \*CNBC/Yahoo Finance/Morningstar; \*\*Brent August contract The week's story in one line: megacaps and chip stocks led the decline, but capital did not leave — it rotated from "story" into "cash flow." II. What We Said Two Weeks Ago In our June 22 issue, we wrote one line: "June is the vacation. September is the reckoning." This week the market answered with a -4.6% Nasdaq decline: the reckoning came earlier than expected. Worth pausing on: why earlier? We anchored the timing to "September, when the Task Force report lands," assuming markets would wait for polic

H2 2026: I’m Staying Long AI Hardware – And I Think the Market Is Still Underestimating the Next Leg Everyone is asking the same question heading into the second half of 2026: “Has the AI trade peaked?” After watching memory stocks deliver massive gains, Nvidia raising billions with ease, and several AI names suffering brutal corrections only to recover days later, it’s understandable why investors are nervous. My view is different. I think we are still in the middle innings of the AI infrastructure buildout, not the end of it. Why I’m Staying Bullish The market is treating AI as if it were a normal technology cycle. It isn’t. This feels much closer to previous mega-infrastructure booms: * The internet buildout in the late 1990s. * The smartphone ecosystem in the 2010s. * Cloud computing o

My portfolio declined by SGD 33,000 in June 2026, representing a 5.6% loss. Despite this setback, year-to-date dividends remain strong at SGD 13,000. My core portfolio consists of Singapore and Hong Kong high-dividend stocks, complemented by a satellite portfolio in Hang Seng Technology stocks. Right now, it feels like Hong Kong stocks have entered a bear market, largely because AI hardware is sucking up all the global capital. While I missed out on the AI rally, I have no intention of chasing it at these levels. Instead, I’m sticking to my strategy and adding to my dividend positions. I also recently started a new position in the Global X Hang Seng High Dividend Yield ETF (03110), and my current plan is to dollar-cost average (DCA) into this ETF throughout the bear market. To fund this, I

My gain for first half of 2026 was 8%+ and slightly underperform the indices. On the bright side, it is at least doing better than last year and can pay for my caifan.

My Investing Muse (29Jun2026) Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies The software and cloud computing firm says it had around 141,000 full-time employees as of 31 May 2026, down from about 162,000 workers at the same time last year. The "deployment of AI technologies across our operations has resulted, and may continue to result, in reductions to our workforce," the report says. - BBC Summary of layoffs by Gemini The final week of June 2026 saw major workforce reductions driven by aggressive shifts toward AI automation and cooling global consumer demand. Automotive: Volkswagen is planning an overhaul that could cut up to 100,000 global jobs. Porsche raised its planned cuts to 3,900 due to crashing margins in China, and Lucid Motors shed 18% (~1,500 roles) to matc

News of companies massive "rush" into AI spending keep triggering a caution of FOMO high-risk high-reward; expect more challenging second half.

The strong quarter reflects improving risk appetite, easing geopolitical fears and growing expectations of Fed cuts. Those factors can support equities into H2, particularly if inflation continues to cool and earnings, especially from AI and semiconductor leaders, remain robust. That said, record highs also mean valuations leave less room for disappointment. Any setback in earnings, inflation, or rate expectations could trigger sharp pullbacks. Rather than viewing it as an all-in buying opportunity or a signal to exit completely, a balanced approach makes sense. Long-term investors can stay invested while gradually trimming outsized winners, rebalancing portfolios, and keeping cash available to deploy during corrections. The primary trend still appears constructive, but after such a powerf