The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes, released overnight, provide key insights into the central bank's current policy directions. During the January 28–29 meeting, the Fed opted to maintain its interest rates, a decision aligned with market expectations. The minutes highlight three significant signals:1. Slowing Balance Sheet ReductionFederal Reserve officials discussed the possibility of slowing or pausing the reduction of its nearly $6.8 trillion asset portfolio. This discussion strongly suggests that such measures are likely to be implemented in the near future. The primary reason for this consideration is the potential complications arising from the U.S. federal debt ceiling issue in the coming months, which could cause significant fluctuations in the Fed's reserve balances.2. No

Under typical circumstances, Fridays without major economic data releases are usually marked by subdued market movements. However, last Friday saw gold prices experience the largest single-day decline since the current rally began. Does this signify the start of a collapse in gold prices, or is it merely a false retreat by the bulls? To answer this question, one must analyze the underlying news event that triggered this decline.Over the weekend, reports emerged that since Donald Trump’s presidency began, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has entered its third year, with signs of potential negotiations on the horizon. U.S. officials are set to meet with Russian representatives in Saudi Arabia to discuss ending the conflict. Details surrounding the talks remain limited, except for the fact that th

The inflationary pressures arising from former President Donald Trump's anti-globalization policies, particularly tariff hikes, and the Federal Reserve's subsequent monetary policy adjustments have become critical focal points for medium-term market direction. While these variables and their interplay make it challenging to predict exact outcomes, traders can gain an edge by closely monitoring changes in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield—a key indicator that often moves ahead of major market news.The Significance of Long-Term Treasury YieldsThe 10-year Treasury yield serves multiple purposes, but most notably, it reflects expectations about the future trajectory of U.S. interest rates. For example, during the last Federal Reserve rate hike cycle, the 10-year yield peaked at over 5%, coincidi

As the COMEX gold futures price edges closer to the $3,000/oz threshold, the current gold market demonstrates a price rally driven by strengthened technical patterns and underlying spot arbitrage dynamics. This momentum is further characterized by two prominent features. With market-wide concerns that Trump’s tariff policies might impose duties on physical gold imported into the U.S., this speculation could push gold prices towards a short squeeze above 3,000 points. Thus, this issue warrants a closer examination.Two Unusual Features in the Gold Futures Market1. Expanding Cross-Market Price SpreadThe price spread between London spot gold and COMEX futures has widened to exceed 2.5 times the historical standard deviation. At present, this arbitrage creates a risk-free profit margin of over

On February 11, $Gold - main 2504(GCmain)$ hit a new high of $2,968, just a step away from the widely agreed $3,000 target set by major banks. It’s highly likely to break $3,000 this week. Of course, new highs in gold are nothing new—gold prices have already set 40 record highs in 2024.Is $3,000 the consensus target among major banks?Citigroup: Raised its 0-3 month gold target to $3,000 per ounce while maintaining the 6-12 month target at $3,000.Goldman Sachs: Set a $3,000 target, citing ongoing US policy uncertainty and safe-haven demand from central banks and investors as key drivers.UBS: Increased its 12-month forecast to $3,000, emphasizing gold's role as a store of value and hedge against uncertainty, despite prices being above its f

Global financial markets experienced significant turbulence during the Spring Festival holiday period. The Trump administration's new tariff policies triggered a rollercoaster pattern in European and U.S. stock markets, with initial gains reversed, while Asian markets and international crude oil prices faced downward pressure. Notably, COMEX April gold futures hit a historic high of $2,872 per ounce on February 3. The critical question now is: How will gold prices evolve moving forward? Our analysis suggests that three fundamental bullish factors could propel gold to new highs if current conditions persist.I. Tariff Policies Amplify Market Volatility, Highlighting Gold's Safe-Haven Status1. Trump Policy Impact Exceeds ExpectationsThe February 1 executive order imposing 25% additional tarif

During the Spring Festival holiday, although the domestic market was closed, overseas products continued to trade as usual, and some varieties even reached new highs. This means that we need to re-evaluate these new changes, and adjust the incorrect calculations or judgments. Now, let's take a look at which varieties deserve special attention after the holiday.GoldFirst and foremost, gold has hit a new all-time high. Previously, I thought that gold had peaked at around $2,800. But now it seems that this judgment might have been hasty. Although the top area is still very close, there is still room for one last upward push in the current market. Clearly, the previous triangle consolidation has now disproven the top. It also indicates that the secondary low point, which started at around $2,6

Gold has been on an impressive rally since the beginning of 2025, surging to new all-time highs and drawing increasing attention from investors. The price has risen by 9% this year alone, and on Wednesday, it even touched a historic peak of $2,900 per ounce. As of now, gold is trading around $2,880, continuing to spark investor interest. But is this the right time to invest? What is driving this surge in gold prices, and what gold-related assets should investors consider? Let’s find the answers in this article.The Drivers Behind Gold's Price SurgeThe recent spike in gold prices isn’t a coincidence. Several factors are contributing to the precious metal’s ascent:US-China Trade Tensions: Escalating trade tensions between the US and China have led to increased uncertainty in the global econom

A popular theory among traders is that US stocks rise higher in January than in other months. Appropriately deemed the January Effect, the effect is typically explained by traders entering position after tax-loss selling has completed, but over the last decade the effect has lost much of its visibility. Similarly, if stocks rise in January, the year will end positively in 85% of cases.US stocks had a volatile start to January, with the Fed raising long-term inflation targets, Trump following through on tariffs, and disruptions in the tech industry. The S&P $.SPX(.SPX)$ was buoyed by consumer spending coming in above expectations with inflation coming in at expectations.Oil prices peaked in the middle of the month at $78.71 following stronger i

Since late December last year, the "Trump Trade" has driven up U.S. dollar interest rates and exchange rates. But gold didn't drop much; instead, the U.S. Dollar Index and gold prices rose together.In the short term, with the Federal Reserve's rate - cut expectations weakening and safe - haven buying cooling due to the Israel - Palestine deal, gold may face challenges. Long - term, in 2025 Q1, Trump's gradual tariff hikes could lead to re - inflation or economic slowdown, both good for gold prices. Also, U.S. fiscal issues affect the dollar's credit, and central banks' de - dollarization gold purchases make gold more likely to rise.The Impact of U.S. Dollar Interest Rates and Re - inflationThe Rebound of the Real U.S. Dollar Interest Rate Restricts Gold Prices: A strong U.S. job market in

January 20th marked the inauguration of the new U.S. President, Donald Trump, officially kicking off the "Trump 2.0" era. This inauguration was quite different from past ceremonies, breaking several long-standing American traditions. For instance, it was moved from the usual outdoor setting to indoors, foreign leaders were invited—a rare exception—and it set a new record for fundraising. These unique elements definitely made the event stand out.Now, when it comes to the financial markets, what really grabs my attention are the executive orders Trump might sign after taking office. There were plenty of expectations about his policies before, but the real question is whether there will be any surprises. These unexpected moves could shake up the markets, so it's best to tread carefully when t

In the past week, a lot of things have changed, and most of the changes are opposite to the main trend in the third and fourth quarters of 2024. With Trump officially starting his second term in the White House next week, does this "reverse" trend mean a new trend is coming or just the last correction?First of all, let's look at crude oil prices. The price has gone up for three weeks in a row, but it still hasn't helped the bulls get back to the central axis range or break through the downward trend line since 2023. But at least it's not as weak as it was before, hovering around 70. Since there isn't much direct news to drive the oil prices, it's hard to say how reliable this increase is during the semi-holiday period. Whether it can break through the trend line resistance this week or nex

2025 is a new year for every investors，but if the turmoil and conflicts increase in this year, it means that the "risk aversion" sentiment will exist for a long time, and it will have a long-term bullish effect on "risk aversion" assets. Of course, long-term bullish does not mean that there will be no major turmoil in the short term. It is just observed at the annual level that the price of gold has a certain increase every year, but the fluctuation in the middle of the year is not necessarily small.How long does the long-term bull market in gold prices last?According to the observation of the interest rate cut and depreciation cycle of the US dollar, the US dollar is in the interest rate cut stage, which usually causes inflationary sentiment; When the US dollar is in a volatile stage, it

With the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in December last year and the landing of the dot plot, a recent Goldman Sachs report pointed out that gold prices are no longer expected to hit US $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025, but need toArrival postponed until mid-2026,In other words, the newly revised view is about half a year later than the original judgment.In 2024, the price of gold will soar by 27.6%, outperforming most major asset classes except the pie and natural gas accident. Statistics in this area, I mentioned in the previous article, the market generally believes that this wave of rise in gold prices is affected by the loose monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, increased demand for safe havens, and continued gold purchases by global central banks.However, since the be