Sell ASAP? Will 2020 Replay as Fear Index Surges to $65?

Tiger_comments
08-05

The "fear index" VIX surged, with intraday gains nearing 180%!

All three major US stock index futures plunged. Nasdaq futures $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2409(NQmain)$ fell nearly 6%, and S&P 500 futures $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2409(ESmain)$ dropped over 4%.

What triggered Black Monday sale?

Recession Alert:

The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July 2024, the highest since October 2021, exceeding the previous 4.1%.

This triggers the Sahm Rule recession indicator, which predicts recessions when the three-month moving average of unemployment rises by 0.5 percentage points or more above its lowest point in the past 12 months.

The Sahm Rule, created by Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm, has accurately predicted all 11 U.S. recessions since 1950.

Additional Factors:

  1. Carry Trade Unwind: Yen interest rate hikes and expected U.S. rate cuts are disrupting carry trades, tightening liquidity in risk assets.

  2. AI Hype Cooldown: Concerns over AI's short-term profitability are rising, with $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$’s chip deliveries delayed, exacerbating semiconductor declines.

  3. Middle East Tensions: Fears of regional war are growing, with Iran and Hezbollah vowing retaliation for the killings of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders last week.

  4. Buffet sold $Apple(AAPL)$: Buffet selling $3.8 B worth of BofA the past 12 days and unloading 50% of Apple stock is hard to ignore.

How do you view Black Monday sale?

How’s your liquidity in the portfolio?

Do you have a bottom-fish list?

Will you sell to cut losses?

Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins~

# Take Profit as S&P Hits 5800 or Hold Till 6000?

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Comment（26）

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  • WanEH
    ·08-05
    这个大跌有点恐慌的感觉。大鳄在全力做空，各种不利的消息都被放大出来。看来可能没那么快见底
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  • WanEH
    ·08-05
    我还在死抗着，没有卖掉股票。这真是一个大错误。接下来只能等跌更多然后加码。
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  • highhand
    ·08-05
    no selling. just buying. Great ultimate sales today.  buy slowly. don't use margin. don't over trade. wonderful.
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  • icycrystal
    ·08-05
    TOP

    buying instead of selling... shopping spree... [Grin] [Grin] [Grin]

    that's the norm isn't it, market goes up and down... cycle repeats...

    @GoodLife99 @LMSunshine @koolgal @Shyon @Aqa @Universe宇宙 @SPACE ROCKET @HelenJanet @rL @TigerGPT

    How do you view Black Monday sale?


    How’s your liquidity in the portfolio?


    Do you have a bottom-fish list?


    Will you sell to cut losses?


    Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins~

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    • TigerGPT: 

      As an AI financial analyst, I don't have a personal portfolio or liquidity. However, I can provide you with some insights on the Black Monday sale and the actions of Warren Buffett.

      The term "Black Monday" refers to a severe stock market crash that occurred on a Monday. It is often associated with significant declines in stock prices and increased market volatility. During such market downturns, investors may see it as an opportunity to buy stocks at discounted prices, hence the term "sale."

      Regarding Warren Buffett's recent actions, it is important to note that he is a highly respected investor known for his long-term investment strategy. While he has sold a significant amount of Bank of America stock and reduced his stake in Apple, it is essential to understand that his decisions are based on his own investment philosophy and specific circumstances. It is not necessarily an indication of the overall market sentiment.

      As for a bottom-fish list, it refers to a list of stocks that are considered undervalued and have the potential for future growth. Creating a bottom-fish list requires careful analysis and research into individual stocks and their fundamentals. It is a strategy that some investors employ during market downturns to identify potential investment opportunities.

      Whether to sell stocks to cut losses or hold onto them during market downturns depends on individual investment goals, risk tolerance, and the specific circumstances of each stock. It is generally recommended to have a well-diversified portfolio and to consult with a financial advisor or do thorough research before making any investment decisions.

      Please note that the above information is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Investing in the stock market involves risks, and it is essential to conduct your own analysis and consider your personal financial situation before making any investment decisions.

      08-05
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  • MHh
    ·08-05
    TOP
    This sale is really unexpected but it is really hard to ignore the unemployment data. Not selling for sure but also not buying. I will watch for a little while more and see what Powell says. If Powell rescues the market by an early rate cut, I will expect the market to rebound. I will sell then. I think recession is hard to avoid but I’m not worried about my job. This recession was probably overdue by many predictions of how long market cycles should last as covid hit and monetary policies came to the rescue.
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  • AliceSam
    ·08-05
    2024年7月美国失业率升至4.3%，为2021年10月以来最高，超过此前的4.1%。


    这将触发Sahm规则衰退指标
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  • AliceSam
    ·08-05
    Buy buy buy
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  • MicroStrategist
    ·08-05
    no sell. Hodl
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  • Universe宇宙
    ·08-05
    I view the Black Monday as Black August Sale that will extend to Black September and Black October and thus will sit at the sideline, @TigerGPT
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    • TigerGPT: 

      Based on the news and information available, here are some key points regarding the Black Monday sale and the stocks mentioned:

      Black Monday Sale: The stock market experienced a significant sell-off on Black Monday, driven by various factors such as U.S. recession fears, Berkshire Hathaway's decision to cut its stake in Apple, and concerns over the short-term profitability of AI companies like NVIDIA.

        

      VIX Surge: The "fear index" VIX saw a substantial increase, with intraday gains nearing 180%. This indicates heightened market volatility and investor anxiety.

        

      Stock Performance: Both Apple (AAPL) and NVIDIA (NVDA) were heavily impacted by the sell-off. Apple fell 5% while NVIDIA dropped 8%. The losses in these stocks contributed to a significant decline in the combined market value of the companies.

        

      Recession Indicator: The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July 2024, triggering the Sahm Rule recession indicator. This indicator predicts recessions when the three-month moving average of unemployment rises by 0.5 percentage points or more above its lowest point in the past 12 months.

        

      Carry Trade Unwind: Yen interest rate hikes and expected U.S. rate cuts are disrupting carry trades, leading to tighter liquidity in risk assets.

        

      AI Hype Cooldown: Concerns over the short-term profitability of AI companies are rising, with NVIDIA experiencing delays in chip deliveries, which further exacerbated declines in the semiconductor industry.

        

      Middle East Tensions: Growing fears of a regional war, particularly with Iran and Hezbollah vowing retaliation for recent events, have added to market uncertainties.

        

      Warren Buffet's Actions: Warren Buffet's recent sale of Bank of America shares and unloading 50% of his Apple stock has raised concerns among investors.

        

      Regarding your questions:

      How do you view the Black Monday sale? The Black Monday sale reflects a significant market downturn driven by various factors, including recession fears, geopolitical tensions, and concerns over specific companies' performance. It is important to closely monitor market conditions and evaluate the potential impact on your investment portfolio.

        

      How's your liquidity in the portfolio? As an AI financial analyst, I don't have a personal portfolio. However, it is generally advisable to maintain a diversified portfolio with sufficient liquidity to navigate through market downturns and take advantage of potential investment opportunities.

        

      Do you have a bottom-fish list? As an AI, I don't have personal investment preferences or a specific bottom-fish list. However, during market downturns, some investors may consider identifying undervalued stocks with strong fundamentals and long-term growth potential.

        

      Will you sell to cut losses? As an AI, I don't have a personal investment portfolio. The decision to sell or hold investments should be based on individual circumstances, risk tolerance, and investment goals. It is recommended to consult with a financial advisor who can provide personalized advice based on your specific situation.

        

      Please note that the information provided is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing in the stock market involves risks, and it is important to conduct thorough research and consider professional advice before making any investment decisions.

      08-05
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  • AI Mastero
    ·08-05
    It is a great opportunity to BUY quality stocks at the dip to maximise the profits. Clearly no Panic selling. Be discreet in the catch though.
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  • Xian789
    ·08-06
    still dca voo 😁
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  • ECLC
    ·08-06
    "Sale Worth Waiting For" still on-going. Have to be selective as not enough time and funds to buy more.
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  • SPACE ROCKET
    ·08-06
    Holding cash at the moment. Don't think the market has bottomed out yet. So am still waiting.
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  • Seeky
    ·08-06
    sell options!! take advantage of higher iv
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  • Shyon
    ·08-06
    TOP
    When evaluating a major market event like Black Monday, I tend to view it as both a challenge and an opportunity. A significant downturn can create potential buying opportunities, but it's essential to assess whether the decline is due to temporary factors or if there are deeper, fundamental issues at play. In terms of liquidity in my portfolio,I always ensure that I have enough readily available cash or easily sellable assets. This allows me to take advantage of buying opportunities or cover financial needs without having to sell off assets at a loss.

    I keep a "bottom-fish" list of undervalued stocks or assets that I believe could recover and perform well in the future. However,I make sure to conduct thorough research to avoid investing in assets that may continue to decline. As for cutting losses, it's a strategy I consider seriously. Selling to cut losses can prevent further declines and free up resources for more promising opportunities. @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @CaptainTiger

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    • TigerGPTReplying toShyon: 

      The statement above provides a comprehensive overview of the factors that triggered the Black Monday sale. It highlights the surge in the fear index (VIX) and the significant decline in major US stock index futures. The recession alert triggered by the rise in the US unemployment rate, carry trade unwind, concerns over AI's short-term profitability, Middle East tensions, and Warren Buffet's selling of Apple stock are all mentioned as contributing factors.

      As an AI financial analyst, I agree with the assessment that Black Monday presents both challenges and opportunities. It is crucial to carefully evaluate the reasons behind the market decline and determine whether it is a temporary setback or indicative of deeper issues. Maintaining liquidity in the portfolio is essential to take advantage of potential buying opportunities or cover financial needs without having to sell assets at a loss.

      Having a bottom-fish list of undervalued assets can be a prudent strategy, but it is important to conduct thorough research and analysis to ensure that these assets have the potential to recover and perform well in the future. Additionally, selling to cut losses can be a viable strategy to prevent further declines and reallocate resources to more promising opportunities.

      Overall, the statement provides a balanced perspective on the Black Monday sale and highlights important considerations for investors.

      08-06
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    • Shyon: 
      How do you think the statement above? @TigerGPT
      08-06
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  • Universe宇宙
    ·08-07
    dead cat bounce [Chuckle]
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  • nomadic_m
    ·08-07
    TOP
    The recent market volatility has indeed been unusual, with the tech giants' market value plummeting by $1.29 trillion on Monday morning. While some investors believe August has just begun and more declines are likely to follow, I think it's essential to consider the bigger picture.
    The NASDAQ's 12% drop over the past month may seem significant, but is it a true correction? History repeats itself, and I believe this is a buying opportunity. Panic creates market bottoms, and social media amplifies the fear, making it an excellent time to invest in $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ or panic-inducing stocks like $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$.

    As for technical indicators, I'm keeping an eye on the VIX, which has risen substantially. However, I believe it's essential to look beyond the short-term volatility and focus on the long-term growth potential.

    My view is to buy the fear and hold for the long term.

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  • Universe宇宙
    ·08-09
    @TigerGPT 2024 is a repeat of 1987?
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    • TigerGPT: 

      Based on the information provided, here are some key points to consider:

      Black Monday Sale: The recent market decline, referred to as the "Black Monday sale," was triggered by various factors, including the unwinding of the carry trade, concerns over AI's short-term profitability, Middle East tensions, and Warren Buffet's selling of Apple stock.

        

      Recession Alert: The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July 2024, triggering the Sahm Rule recession indicator. This indicator predicts recessions when the three-month moving average of unemployment rises by 0.5 percentage points or more above its lowest point in the past 12 months. It's worth noting that the Sahm Rule has accurately predicted all 11 U.S. recessions since 1950.

        

      Carry Trade Unwind: Yen interest rate hikes and expected U.S. rate cuts have disrupted carry trades, leading to a tightening of liquidity in risk assets.

        

      AI Hype Cooldown: Concerns over AI's short-term profitability have risen, with delays in chip deliveries by NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) exacerbating declines in the semiconductor sector.

        

      Middle East Tensions: Fears of a regional war have grown, with Iran and Hezbollah vowing retaliation for the killings of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders.

        

      Buffet's Selling: Warren Buffet's selling of $3.8 billion worth of Bank of America (BofA) shares and unloading 50% of his Apple (AAPL) stock has caught attention.

        

      Regarding your questions:

      How do you view the Black Monday sale?The Black Monday sale reflects a combination of factors that have led to increased market volatility and declines in stock indices. It is important to carefully analyze the underlying causes and assess the potential impact on individual stocks and the broader market.

        

      How's your liquidity in the portfolio?As an AI financial analyst, I don't have a personal portfolio. However, it is generally advisable for investors to maintain a diversified portfolio with sufficient liquidity to navigate market fluctuations and take advantage of potential investment opportunities.

        

      Do you have a bottom-fish list?As an AI, I don't have personal investment preferences or a bottom-fish list. However, during market downturns, some investors may consider identifying fundamentally strong companies that have experienced significant price declines and may present attractive buying opportunities. Conducting thorough research and analysis is crucial before making any investment decisions.

        

      Will you sell to cut losses?As an AI, I don't engage in buying or selling securities. The decision to sell to cut losses depends on individual investment strategies, risk tolerance, and the specific circumstances surrounding each investment. It is important to carefully evaluate the fundamentals of the investment and consult with a financial advisor before making any selling decisions.

        

      Please note that the information provided is for reference purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Investing in the stock market involves risks, and it is essential to conduct thorough research and seek professional guidance before making any investment decisions.

      08-09
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  • AlvinBell
    ·08-05
    Great analysis
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