Year-end is usually a quiet period, when markets thin out and traders take time off—but hold on and get through this week first. For FX traders in particular, after several years of dull price action, the key that could set a major move in motion for 2026 may well be this week.​More specifically, beyond the Bank of Japan’s impending rate hike, close attention also needs to be paid to possible shifts in monetary policy at the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. If the major G7 central banks all choose to bring their easing cycles to an end, while the United States—under a new Fed chair in the future—moves against that trend, then the trend driven by rate differentials/spread differentials could be enormous.​The U.S. Dollar Index has already shown signs of weakening across 2025; s

After Shigeru Ishiba was re-elected as Prime Minister of Japan on November 11th, the Japanese economy still faces several major challenges, among which it is particularly important to seek a balance between inflation and economic growth. Recently, the Japanese stock market has fallen into a range-bound trend, and the yen exchange rate no longer depreciates unilaterally. By next year, the direction of Shigeru Ishiba's economic stimulus is to increase residents' income and fight inflation through subsidies, but the effect remains to be seen. The tariff increase imposed by Trump's new administration may have an additional impact on the Japanese economy, and the sustainability of Japan's debt is also problematic. Therefore, the Japanese stock market has not yet ushered in a new upward driver.

Since mid-July, the Japanese stock market has entered a stage of high volatility, during which a series of uncertain factors such as the rate hike of the Bank of Japan, the violent fluctuation of the yen exchange rate and the "Trump deal" ushered in the US election. From the perspective of the Japanese stock market, if the Trump administration brings reflation and the appreciation of the US dollar, then Japan will face greater pressure of capital outflow.Economic slowdown will continueFrom the perspective of stock pricing logic, it is inseparable from corporate profits and risk premiums, both of which are inseparable from the fundamentals of economic growth. Going back to the fundamentals of Japan's economic growth, we can see that GDP growth is slowing down. Generally speaking, it is diff

Japan's political scene has been shaken by a sudden earthquake, with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) losing its governing position for the first time since 2009, and Shigeru Ishiba's dream of becoming prime minister being snuffed out just a month ago.Although he has not been in power for a long time, Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru's "black money" scandal is now in full swing, and the news about the irregular use of the LDP's political funds has greatly reduced the LDP government's support in the polls.Last weekend, the 50th House of Representatives election, in the 465 seats, the Liberal Democratic Party 191 seats, the Komeito party 24 seats (the two parties formed a ruling coalition of 215 seats, not reached a majority of 233 seats); the Constitutional Democratic Party 148 seats,

My points:”I believe that short-term fluctuations may have reached a bottom, there could still be similar volatility in the medium to long term. This is especially true given the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cuts and the Bank of Japan's gradual approach to raising interest rates.However, the current interest rate of 0.25% by the Bank of Japan remains the lowest globally, and they have indicated a slow path towards increasing rates. It is reasonable to expect that there will be further yen carry trade closures and associated market pressures in the future.Perhaps in similar situations, we might not need to panic and rush to sell or short-sell; it could also be a good opportunity to buy on dips.The market performance in recent days has precisely illustrated this point. It suggest

As the Japanese yen exchange rate hit 160 in the early morning of April 29, marking a new low not seen in over 34 years, the Bank of Japan may have started to take action. Since April 29 is not a trading day in Japan (Showa Day), trading was relatively thin, resulting in larger intraday volatility. $iShares MSCI Japan ETF(EWJ)$ $Japanese Yen - main 2406(JPYmain)$ $Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust(FXY)$ What are the impacts of the yen's depreciation?Depreciation FactorsMonetary Policy Unchanged: The Bank of Japan decided at its March meeting to maintain the current bond purchase scale without announcing a reduction in bond purchases. This indicates tha

The monetary surprise last week came not from the ECB or the Federal Reserve, but from the Bank of Japan. In monetary terms, the Bank of Japan has gone further than the other two central banks in recent years. Where those two banks fixed the quantity (of bonds to be bought), the Bank of Japan (BoJ) fixed the price. So then, as a central bank, you are obliged to buy up everything on price. As long as a central bank has credibility, the market will usually do the job for you. But in December, the BoJ decided to raise the price ceiling from 0.25 per cent to 0.50 per cent. Since Kuroda, who shaped this policy, left in March, it was expected that the policy would be abolished soon. This has taken longer than expected. The Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy was unsustainable because it had become