Last time I talked with you about this week's options strategy: besides continuing to run the index options straddle into rallies, one could also consider going long U.S. Treasuries on dips — especially the price of the long-bond TLT. But on Treasuries, as of today, after the escalation of the U.S.–Iran war, everyone needs to be more careful: rising crude oil drives inflation expectations higher, which could push Treasury yields up further, and Treasury prices would then face downward pressure. So we can lift the stop-loss on the buy-the-dip Treasury view a bit higher — up to near the prior-low support around $83.5. Review：Strong Dollar Returns: After Booking the Straddle Win,Why Treasuries Deserv

A recent string of mismatches between macro data and capital flows has revealed a new direction for the rotation across global asset classes. After deeply reviewing the latest non-farm payrolls (NFP) data, the U.S. Dollar Index, the yen's trajectory, and U.S. equity fund flows, I want to discuss a new trading thesis that may differ from what many people think: the pressure that a rising Dollar Index puts on global equities is not over. Bottom-fishing is not currently suitable for U.S. stocks, but it may be relatively suitable for U.S. Treasuries. Why do I say this? To sum up my current logic chain: although over the past week the Dollar Index staged a pullback at its major resistance around 101.3, judging from the performance of the yen — the dollar's second-largest counterpart — and the t

The start of each month is usually the key window for the release of the U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) data, so at the beginning of every month many people tend to see sizable swings in their investment accounts. This is because the NFP data often reshapes the market's expectations for the future economy, which in turn changes the price direction of related financial products. Last week's NFP data came in contrary to market expectations: the market had originally anticipated a figure of more than 100,000 new jobs, but the actual result was an increase of only 57,000. A slowdown in job gains indicates that the economy is not as “hot” as expected, which reduces the necessity for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. As a result, since the data was released, the market has sharply lower

A Long-Term Investor’s Mindset 🏆 Looking at my portfolio, I am currently up about US$25 overall on my IAU Gold Trust position. The unrealized loss on my shares is larger, but over the past months I have recovered a significant portion of that through consistently selling covered calls. To many investors, seeing a red number may be discouraging, but I see it differently. $IAU 20260702 85.5 CALL$  I remind myself that an unrealized loss is only temporary unless I decide to sell my shares. As long as I continue to own IAU and believe in the long-term investment thesis for gold, temporary fluctuations are simply part of investing. Instead of worrying about the daily market price, I focus on generating regular income while

In a stock market environment with ambiguous directionality and persistent consolidation, capital flow data often serves as the primary reference indicator for traders because these data are more authentic than sentiment. In last week's market liquidity data, we discovered: capital is accelerating its flight from US stocks, especially the seven major tech stocks tracked by Goldman Sachs, where the traces of institutional capital withdrawal are already quite clear. Moreover, the overall net capital flow of individual US stocks is once again showing an expanding outflow. In the latest weekly data of institutional capital inflows and outflows for major seats compiled by Goldman Sachs, massive amounts of capital are fleeing US tech stocks, particularly the 7 star tech stocks:

Gold is still wearing the crown. (period !) However, the market has just been taught a lesson and reminded (everyone) that even a runaway bull can stumble hard. On Wed, 24 Jun 2026, Spot gold prices were sharply lower after the close on Wednesday, as (a) a firmer US dollar, (b) aggressive post-Fed’s interest rate repricing and (c) easing oil-supply fears outweighed residual haven demand tied to the US-Iran situation. Spot gold plummeted more than -3% during the day, struggling to hold the psychologically significant $4,000 mark and trading around $3,980.20 per ounce (with spot gold settling near $3,998.00 at the time of Kitco post composition). (see below) The broad selloff pushed gold futures to their lowest level since November 2025, mirroring broader weakness across other (i) rate-sensi

The Gold Rush Isn't Over, Just Catching Its Breath.  Which Gold ETF to Buy? 🌟🌟🌟 Gold has had a wild ride lately.  After hitting breathtaking highs, the market took a sharp downturn.  If you watch the charts, you might feel a bit of a panic.  But don't let fear dictate your next move. Right now, Gold isn't crashing.  It is simply resting, cooling off and returning to a much healthier and more reasonable price range.  The global forces keeping Gold strong, like central banks buying it up in massive quantities, have not changed.  This pullback is just a rare second chance for investors who felt they missed the boat earlier this year. Smart Investors are Eyeing IAU Over GLD ETF If you want to add the safety of Gold to your portfolio today, how you buy it matt

The current US financial market has flashed a very strong red warning signal: a strong dollar may return, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) is likely to experience a short-to-medium-term impulsive upward rally in the near future. From a technical perspective in the futures market, the DXY has broken through crucial resistance levels. Following the typical price action rules of a "head and shoulders bottom" pattern, the dollar's rise could mirror the previous decline in crude oil, triggering an impulsive upward trend of significant magnitude: $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ $Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund(UDN)$ $Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund(UUP)$</

Our two prior key calls now appear to have largely played out: First, the pullback in U.S. equities from elevated levels would likely remain within an 8% range; second, crude oil had most likely topped, with WTI futures expected to retest the $65 level in the near term. Review：Oil Plunges, Undercurrents Thrive? June 19 Deal Could Flip — Option Strategy to Capture Time Value Red Alert! The Dollar Just Broke Out—How to Bulletproof Your Stock Portfolio Now！ Many market participants have attributed last night’s strong rebound in U.S. equities to Micron’s better-than-expected earnings. However, it is important to recognize that Micron’s results merely act

Over the past week, renewed military clashes between the United States and Iran have shaken global equity markets, while gold has retreated sharply from recent highs and overall risk appetite has come under pressure. The situation on the ground remains highly uncertain, with persistent geopolitical tensions interacting with shifting macro expectations; most investors are adopting a cautious stance, waiting for subsequent key U.S. economic data releases in order to better gauge the Federal Reserve’s policy path and the trajectory of asset prices. As of around 4:00 p.m. on 12 June 2026, the weekly performance of major assets is as follows: In an environment where macro expectations are oscillating, looking at price moves alone is no longer sufficient to capture the main drivers of asset perf

Buying physical gold jewelry is a classic, tangible way to hold wealth, but if your goal is purely to capture a financial rebound at the $4,000 level, Gold ETFs like GLD and IAU are vastly superior vehicles for investors. When you buy physical jewelry, you pay steep "making charges" (premiums) and take a massive haircut on the spread when you sell it back to a jeweler. ETFs eliminate that friction entirely. How GLD and IAU Work Both SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) are physically backed grantor trusts. The Underlying Asset: They do not use complex derivatives or futures contracts to mimic the market. Instead, the fund managers literally buy and store 400-ounce international-standard gold bars in highly secured bank vaults (like HSBC or JPMorgan in London). Tracking:

With rising expectations that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement will be signed, the market appears to have temporarily escaped the shadow of inflation, and U.S. equities have finally welcomed a long-overdue rebound. Many investors may feel this is the time to buy the dip. However, I want to caution: do not yet let your guard down. The market's volatile phase has not passed. The current gains in U.S. stocks remain unstable, and the first leg of the crude oil bearish rally may already be complete. We need to patiently wait for the November 19 ceasefire agreement signing results and specific details to materialize before the market can potentially launch a new bearish phase. More importantly, for both the fragile rebound in U.S. equities and U.S. Treasuries, adopting a selling-options strateg

Spot gold has officially broken below the critical $4,000/oz level, marking its first close under this psychological support since November 2025. From its January all-time high, gold is now down nearly 30%, firmly entering bear-market territory. The selloff wasn’t caused by a collapse in gold’s fundamentals. Instead, it was triggered by a rapid repricing of interest-rate expectations: 📈 Fed Governor Waller’s recent hawkish comments revived fears that rates could stay higher for longer. 📈 Treasury yields surged, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. 📈 The stronger US dollar also pressured precious metals, leading to aggressive profit-taking after gold’s historic rally earlier this year. As a result, investors are asking the big question: Is this the start