On Friday, the triple witching day, VIX maintained high levels at market open.Tesla dropped by 6% in pre-market trading, making many eager for a bottom to start buying. However, lower-than-expected PCE data helped stabilize market sentiment. Despite being triple witching day, put option activity suggests bears aren't making big bets. Wednesday's steep decline likely won't repeat; focus should be on next week. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ SPY saw many long-dated sell calls opened Thursday, with 2026 expiration strikes above 750, which isn't particularly relevant for current trading decisions.The most notable put option activity shows a clear range, with the top two positions being part of a large order suggesting SPY may gradually approach 577

TL;DR: Next week's SPY trading range: 590-580.The title is a joke - I think it's unfair to blame Powell for the plunge.Wall Street is playing innocent by putting all blame on the old man. This plunge wasn't exactly unexpected; it had been brewing for a while. Institutions had been selling NVIDIA calls for two weeks at 140, waiting for a pullback since early December - they just needed an excuse for the plunge.The upcoming president's preferences are crystal clear - whoever triggers a stock market crash would be seen as opposing the future president.As usual, the FOMC meeting became the convenient trigger for the market selloff. Wall Street is using this opportunity for market correction, and after the adjustment, growth will resume its normal pattern.Regarding specific policies, the dot pl

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ The bears have finally arrived!On Monday, SPY saw large put buying: 20,000 contracts of March 21, 2025 puts with strike price 565 $SPY 20250321 565.0 PUT$ .Calculating from the strike price suggests a 5.8% pullback. However, there's another interpretation - even if it doesn't reach 565 (less than 5.8% drop), a panic sell-off could spike volatility, making these puts profitable.The correction range will determine its duration. A 5.8% pullback would likely take over two weeks, similar to April. A sub-5% correction could complete in a week, like September.To clarify, SPY typically sees spread trades (call or put spreads) since index movements are more

Unexpectedly, after six months, we witnessed another earnings report squeeze on Friday with $AVGO$. With two cases now in hand, let's analyze and summarize the characteristics of this special trading pattern for future reference.Why should we master identifying this pattern? Because of the massive profits. The Friday closing末日call $AVGO 20241213 215.0 CALL$  saw a 3489% increase - this is true small-bet-big-return trading.The beauty of this pattern is that after Friday's surge, the stock continues to rise on Monday. If you missed Friday's rally, don't worry - you can enter at any time during trading hours, as the stock price will continue to rise next week.What is an Earnings Report Friday Squeeze?This is my informal nam

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Today's options opening data revealed something interesting. Institutions expect NVIDIA's stock price for the week of December 20 to be lower than the market consensus. Institutions expect it below 141, while open interest data shows market expectations between 140-150:Sell $NVDA 20241220 141.0 CALL$ Buy $NVDA 20241220 149.0 CALL$ The overall market expects NVIDIA to likely trade between 140-150 during December 20 week, while institutions expect it below 141, with a small chance of 141-149.When such contradictions arise, which side is more credible? From a sensitivity perspective, overall option

Chinese ADRs are showing significant options activity, with diverging views on recent market movements. $X-trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares Fund(ASHR)$ On Wednesday, someone opened a position of 100,000 contracts in February 2025 29 calls $ASHR 20250221 29.0 CALL$ , while another bought 25,000 contracts of January 2025 27 puts $ASHR 20250117 27.0 PUT$ .Both options' transaction details show automated order placement, not floor trading.$KWEB$ options mainly saw new open interest in calls, with floor trading showing a bullish spread strategy, direction unclear:Opening

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Friends, small short sellers have surrendered and rolled their positions. Expect a pullback or halt in gains starting today.Institutions are closing 390-420 calls expiring this week and rolling to next week's 440-500 calls:Buy $TSLA 20241220 440.0 CALL$ Sell $TSLA 20241220 500.0 CALL$ Today is ideal for selling calls, but naked calls on Tesla are very risky without holding shares. I'll use a spread strategy, choosing the same strike price as institutions but expiring this week:Sell $TSLA 20241213 440.0 CALL$ , Buy

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ For those holding shares, consider hedging with sell calls in the near term. Based on opening positions, this week's closing price should be between 137-145.On Monday, NVIDIA fell 2% at open due to alleged violations of China's anti-monopoly laws. This has little real impact - it's just an excuse for a decline, like being fired for entering the office left foot first.However, the pullback isn't groundless, so hedging is advisable.Monday's options activity was dominated by sellers for both calls and puts.This week's 138 and 137 puts were mainly sold, and two January 2025 120 puts $NVDA 20250117 120.0 PUT$  and

Last week, I posted three consecutive threads tracking unusual options activity in Chinese ADRs. Below is a summary of key options positions for several notable Chinese stocks. Based on the strike prices, the first target price has been reached at market open. The endpoint of this rally can be referenced through the details of large order closures & roll-overs, which I will continue to track. $Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X Shares(YINN)$ $YINN 20260116 27.0 CALL$ , 179K contracts open interest$YINN 20241220 33.0 CALL$ , 39K contracts open interest

Tesla might replicate NVIDIA's movement pattern from this week next week. $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Due to Thursday's failure to break through, expectations for call and put options began to diverge.Call options are targeting above 160 for January, while put options have started partly betting on 110:Why didn't the stock price continue breaking through on Thursday?Because the market's biggest short position holder, the institution doing weekly sell calls, was forced to roll positions:They likely expected a pullback this week, so they sold 141 calls at the borderline, but Wednesday's breakthrough forced them to roll to next week, selling calls at a higher 148. After these "shorts" disappeared, the stock price stalled Thursday and pulled back after Friday

After reviewing the opening position data, I suspect there might not be a pullback in December. $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ On Wednesday, institutions made large-scale rolls of their bull spreads. All December 6 call options were closed, with strike prices uniformly adjusted up by about $5. The concentrated opening range for December 13 calls shifted to 147-157.Unless the stock price returns to 140 by Friday, I feel next week's short squeeze could still keep NVIDIA at high levels.On the put side, there are concentrated openings in 141-144 puts, with $NVDA 20241206 141.0 PUT$  showing large-scale put selling. However, as we've mentioned before, opening weight is direction-neutral, and hea

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ As I mentioned yesterday, institutions have closed their positions and exited again, closing 141-150 and rolling to next week below 148, hedging at 157.5Sell $NVDA 20241213 148.0 CALL$ Buy $NVDA 20241213 157.5 CALL$ The worst case is this one - they just rolled yesterday and it went up today, forcing them to cut losses and roll again. They chose a lower strike price than the previous one, opening by selling 145 call and buying 150 call:Sell $NVDA 20241213 145.0 CALL$ Buy

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ NVIDIA's trend over the next two weeks might be better than expected, although the original expectations weren't bad either.Monday's options opening position list shows that bullish options top positions significantly outweigh bearish ones, indicating the market tends to bet on the near-term trend using call options.Call options are being heavily accumulated across strike price sequences, which typically triggers stock price increases. However, transaction details show scattered trades with more selling than buying orders, clearly not institutional accumulation.Possibly due to no signs of market correction and NVIDIA's reasonable stock price, the market expects the price won't exceed certain levels. Overall, Monday showed no si

Two groups of massive new open interest options positions are indicative of future trend directions, with attention on Chinese stock rebound opportunities.Western Markets Cool:First, there's a large Microsoft call option sale at the at-the-money strike price of 420, expiring December 13th:Sell $MSFT 20241213 420.0 CALL$ , opening 10,000 contractsChoosing the at-the-money strike price for selling calls indicates a very bearish trend for the next two weeks, and opening over 10,000 contracts shows strong confidence in this outlook.Looking at covered call large orders in other tech stocks like NVIDIA and Tesla, we can see the next two weeks will likely be relatively flat with range-bound trading. Even COIN isn't an exception

$NVDA$After reviewing institutional roll-over strike prices and put option opening trends, I'm comfortable writing covered calls for next week's 140 strike: selling $NVDA 20241206 140.0 CALL$ Compared to Tesla, institutions trading NVIDIA spreads are more cautious, not choosing the two-week expiration date of December 6th all at once, but rather observing for two days before rolling.The latest roll-over positions are:Sell $NVDA 20241206 140.0 CALL$ Buy $NVDA 20241206 150.0 CALL$  or $NVDA 20241206 152.5 CALL$ This

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ On October 11th, I wrote an article about an unknown billionaire's massive purchase of NVIDIA call options. On October 10th, this wealthy investor swept up nearly all available call options expiring March 21st, 2025.On November 25th, updated open interest data showed that the billionaire closed all previously purchased call positions:According to the options price chart, this trade resulted in a loss:NVIDIA closed at 134.8 on October 10th and at 136.02 on November 25th. After more than a month of volatility, the stock price returned to its starting point. While the underlying stock made a small profit and options sellers gained slightly, call option buyers lost time value, with out-of-the-money options suffering particularly se

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ After NVIDIA's earnings release on Thursday, November 21st, the $200M trader rolled positions within the first 30 minutes of trading, closing December 20th 135 calls and buying $NVDA 20250221 140.0 CALL$ .Based on November 21st data, the position size was similar to the previous earnings roll, around 160,000 contracts.Again using floor trading (non-electronic trades executed on the exchange floor), the execution price wasn't closely tied to the bid-ask spread. The buy direction assessment is based on historical patterns.The 140 strike roll was unsurprising, $5 higher than my conservative estimate, indicating a bullish trend for the next 3 months.However, mark

$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$On Thursday, bitcoin holder MSTR plunged 16%, seemingly due to Citron Research's short announcement. Citron stated that MSTR's trading volume had completely disconnected from bitcoin fundamentals. While still bullish on bitcoin, they're hedging by shorting MSTR.Notably, Citron's X statement came at 10:43 PM on November 21st, after Thursday's close. MSTR had already fallen 16% before closing, suggesting Citron may be taking credit for the decline.Citron didn't disclose their short position type - stocks or options. Given options allow for both price and volatility shorts, I suspect they're using options, likely selling calls to short both volatility and price.Thursday saw numerous large call sales, any of which could be Citron'

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ earnings were generally good, but following the year-end pattern, the stock price will likely fluctuate before exploding in January. Those who haven't entered can wait for pullbacks, while those already in can write both calls and puts to profit from the 130-160 range oscillation.Wednesday's options flow showed significant put volume. Besides the December 140 puts I forwarded overnight, the second-largest opening position was buying this week's 140 puts while selling 130 puts.Based on today's opening performance, the 140 put strategy wasn't wrong. The error was in the overwhelming buying enthusiasm, as a mere 5% drop got bought up.I'm more focused on long-term strategy than short-term plays. You might have noticed large volumes

$Nvidia (NVDA)$ is set to report Q3 earnings after the close on Wednesday. According to Bloomberg analyst estimates, Nvidia's Q3 revenue is expected to be $33.125 billion, adjusted net income of $18.493 billion, and adjusted EPS of $0.739.Whether it can rally big after earnings depends on if revenue can exceed $2 billion over expectations again, and if the Q4 revenue guidance can also surpass projections.Based on open interest data, large option traders seem positioned more bullishly, with $150 appearing as a key breakout level for these earnings.Impacted by the stock pullback, earnings flows have been relatively cautious. Here's a roundup of the major option trades over the past few days for reference.There may be some looking for that perfect th