$Tesla (TSLA)$Was the option strategy shared last week of buying calls and selling puts effective?This method is not only convenient for entry, but also for exit. With TSLA trading up to $340 pre-market, many are likely looking to take profits. For stock positions, the exit is simply reducing share size. For call options, the exit is rolling - closing out your long calls and re-opening cheaper, higher strike calls.Many option buyers either hold through pullbacks, seeing profits erode or even losses, or they just outright close positions leaving further upside on the table.To avoid these two scenarios, relying on mental fortitude alone is insufficient. Preserving capital while compounding gains is the wiser approach when speculating.Which call opti
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Survive until year-end, rally next year
$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ earnings were generally good, but following the year-end pattern, the stock price will likely fluctuate before exploding in January. Those who haven't entered can wait for pullbacks, while those already in can write both calls and puts to profit from the 130-160 range oscillation.Wednesday's options flow showed significant put volume. Besides the December 140 puts I forwarded overnight, the second-largest opening position was buying this week's 140 puts while selling 130 puts.Based on today's opening performance, the 140 put strategy wasn't wrong. The error was in the overwhelming buying enthusiasm, as a mere 5% drop got bought up.I'm more focused on long-term strategy than short-term plays. You might have noticed large volumes
Survive until year-end, rally next year
Nvidia Q3 Earnings Options Flow Roundup
$Nvidia (NVDA)$ is set to report Q3 earnings after the close on Wednesday. According to Bloomberg analyst estimates, Nvidia's Q3 revenue is expected to be $33.125 billion, adjusted net income of $18.493 billion, and adjusted EPS of $0.739.Whether it can rally big after earnings depends on if revenue can exceed $2 billion over expectations again, and if the Q4 revenue guidance can also surpass projections.Based on open interest data, large option traders seem positioned more bullishly, with $150 appearing as a key breakout level for these earnings.Impacted by the stock pullback, earnings flows have been relatively cautious. Here's a roundup of the major option trades over the past few days for reference.There may be some looking for that perfect th
Nvidia Q3 Earnings Options Flow Roundup
Institutions Self-Implode Shorting $TSLA$; 6 Strategies for $NVDA$ Earnings
$Tesla (TSLA)$After seeing Tesla's new large option trades yesterday, I couldn't help but chuckle at the comedy of errors that could end up fueling a move to $370.First, the institutional hedgers rolled their $330-$360 collar up to $365-$405, now expecting TSLA to stay below $365 while hedging the $365-$405 upside:Sell $TSLA 20241122 365.0 CALL$ Buy $TSLA 20241122 405.0 CALL$ As I mentioned yesterday, the logical short strike for a pullback in week 2 should have been the prior $360 highs, not the $330 level from Friday's highs which was excessive.But with Monday's open above $340, they seemingly lacked convict
Institutions Self-Implode Shorting $TSLA$; 6 Strategies for $NVDA$ Earnings
11.22 Institutional Hedging Overview: $TSLA$, $NVDA$
$Tesla (TSLA)$Last week, institutions hedged TSLA by selling $340 calls, targeting a range of $340-$375. With Friday's close at $320, they successfully positioned below $340.This week's hedge strikes are at $330, targeting a $330-$360 range, suggesting they don't expect TSLA to exceed last week's highs:Sell $TSLA 20241122 330.0 CALL$ Buy $TSLA 20241122 360.0 CALL$ $Nvidia (NVDA)$Earnings may be somewhat muted this week. Last Thursday, institutional option blocks started positioning for NVDA earnings, with early strikes targeting $160+. But after Friday's market weakne
11.22 Institutional Hedging Overview: $TSLA$, $NVDA$
Two Updates: Nvidia Earnings Expectations Around $160, Tesla Naked Call Sellers Take Losses and Exit$Nvidia (NVDA)$Expecting NVDA to close this week around $140-$150, with initial earnings projections above $160.According to new open interest data, large traders have started positioning for next week's earnings report, adding predominantly bullish options exposure overall.Three notable option trade groups:The largest new Opening positions were the December $180 and $190 calls:$NVDA 20241220 180.0 CALL$ - Opened 25,000 contracts$NVDA 20241220 190.0 CALL$ - Opened 25,000 contractsThe directional bias is unclea
Rolling Calls 7 Times in 2 Months, Learning from Billion-Dollar Whales to Lock in Upside Profits
On November 12th, two large bullish option trades printed in $Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN)$ - buying the February 21st $230 calls for $221 million, and the February 21st $320 calls for $111 million. Upon verification, these were part of a combined roll, with the actual activity being:Close (Sell-to-Open) $COIN 20250221 230.0 CALL$ Roll (Buy-to-Open) $COIN 20250221 320.0 CALL$ Tracing back their rolling history, shockingly this firm has rolled their COIN calls 7 times in under 2 months. Let's review these 7 rolls, using it as an opportunity to explain three frequently asked questions:What is a roll?Identifying
Rolling Calls 7 Times in 2 Months, Learning from Billion-Dollar Whales to Lock in Upside Profits
Tesla's Breakout Stalls, Retail Whales Target $435 Calls
$Tesla (TSLA)$TL;DR: The uptrend is likely to end within November, with a chance of further upside but expecting a 2-day pullback. Key focus on the November 29th $435 calls ($TSLA 20241129 435.0 CALL$ ).Monday's option flows in TSLA were noteworthy, with the highest opening interest in the $435 November 29th calls ($TSLA 20241129 435.0 CALL$ ).The timing was interesting, with most of the action occurring right at 11:30am ET.At that time, TSLA spiked to $358 intraday, tagging the upper bounds of the intermediate-term uptrend channel before pulling back.The $435 strikes were not outright bullish buying, but rath
Tesla's Breakout Stalls, Retail Whales Target $435 Calls
Should You Take Profits on TSLA Calls? One Method to Let Gains Keep Running
Should You Take Profits on TSLA Calls? One Method to Let Gains Keep Running
Whales Dazzle with Massive SPY Call Buys, Mysterious Billionaire Goes All-in on NVDA Calls
Thursday saw two massive bullish option trades: a mystery whale bought $600 million in SPY calls, while the $200 million trader rolled his NVDA call position higher.$SPY ETF (SPY)$On Thursday's open, huge call buying emerged in SPY. Someone closed out 30,000 contracts of the November 15th $580 calls, but rolled that position into 60,000 contracts of the November 29th $600 calls - doubling their upside exposure:Close $SPY 20241115 580.0 CALL$ for 30,000 contractsRoll and Buy $SPY 20241129 600.0 CALL$ for 60,000 contractsNot much explanation needed - just an overwhelmingly bullish bet on the S&P 500 continuin
Whales Dazzle with Massive SPY Call Buys, Mysterious Billionaire Goes All-in on NVDA Calls
Learning the Zen of Chasing Rallies from Option Whales
Tonight's FOMC meeting has Powell sweating, as the man representing high inflation is coming back. Looks like next year's rate cut plans need to be re-evaluated.However, based on CME's FedWatch tool, the most likely outcome tonight is a 25bps rate hike if no surprises.On Wednesday night, the S&P 500 jumped 2.53% to close at 5,936 - just a stone's throw from 6,000. The burning question on everyone's mind is whether to chase further upside, and how to manage potential pullbacks.For QQQ, the whales outlined a conservative put spread strategy:Buy $QQQ 20250117 500.0 PUT$ for 23,000 contractsSell $QQQ 20250620 510.0 PUT$ for 23,000 contractsIt's widely ac
Learning the Zen of Chasing Rallies from Option Whales
The Fake Trump Concept Stock: $Trump Media & Technology(DJT)$ The Real Trump Concept Stock: $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Institutions are rolling their TSLA covered call positions higher, targeting a $295-$320 upside range for next week:Sell $TSLA 20241115 295.0 CALL$ Buy $TSLA 20241115 320.0 CALL$ I think their pricing may actually be a bit conservative - we could easily hit $300 by Friday itself.No new notable call buys surfaced in $Nvidia (NVDA)$, but the $Semiconductor HOLDRs ETF (SMH)$
Whales Go All-in on DJT Calls, Betting on Trump's Presidential Campaign Success
$Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT)$Let me first express amazement at just how much money some people have to gamble with.The U.S. presidential election results will be announced this Wednesday, November 6th. Whether Harris or Trump prevails will dictate the direction for DJT's stock price.The open interest landscape across DJT options depicts starkly divergent expectations. On the call side, the highest open interest strike is the January 2025 $70 calls:$DJT 20250117 70.0 CALL$ While on the put side, the highest open put strike is the $2.5 puts also expiring in January 2025:$DJT 20250117 2.5 PUT$ Such a polari
Whales Go All-in on DJT Calls, Betting on Trump's Presidential Campaign Success
Bracing for Volatility, Reducing Leverage
$S&P 500 ETF (SPY)$With the U.S. election and FOMC meeting this week, markets are poised for turbulence. Based on recent SPY positioning, the initial target appears to be a pullback towards $560.For existing longs, one could sell calls and buy puts as a collar, e.g. Sell $570 calls, Buy $560 or lower strike puts. Non-holders could consider a bear put spread like Buy $560 puts, Sell $540 puts.$Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)$QQQ is set to follow suit with a retracement targeting $480.$Nvidia (NVDA)$While NVDA's Dow inclusion is a positive, it remains beholden to broader market forces this week. The November $150 calls saw significant seller flow last week:Sell
Bracing for Volatility, Reducing Leverage
Black Friday Deals in the Stock Market
Ah, telling me about discounts after I've already placed my orders.Although the sell-off was rather abrupt, I still view it as pre-emptive risk release. The longer-term uptrend remains intact, providing dip-buying opportunities.$Apple (AAPL)$I was second-guessing my $230 put sale from earlier this week as too aggressive. Someone paid over $2 million to buy those $230 puts at the open, essentially fading my position:Buy $AAPL 20241122 230.0 PUT$ Ultimately it may not matter if earnings disappoint, as a rebound could materialize post U.S. election next week.The initial expectation was a rally into the vote, then a sell-off. But the reverse script of a pullback first, followed by a
Black Friday Deals in the Stock Market
Earnings Strategies for $Microsoft (MSFT)$, $Meta (META)$, $Coinbase (COIN)$, $MicroStrategy (MSTR)$
$Microsoft (MSFT)$Leaning bullish into earnings, but uncertain if an initial gap higher will be sustained through Thursday's close.Options are pricing a 4.4% earnings move, which has historically overstated MSFT's actual reaction. Favoring put sales around the $430 strike or lower seems optimal:Sell $MSFT 20241115 430.0 PUT$ With volatility elevated, long calls run risk of decay accelerating into November opex. Puts may be preferred for capturing upside.$Meta Platforms, Inc. (META)$META presents the opposite scenario compared to MSFT, where the options may be underpricing the magnitude of the earnings move.Current at-the-money straddle i
Earnings Strategies for $Microsoft (MSFT)$, $Meta (META)$, $Coinbase (COIN)$, $MicroStrategy (MSTR)$
Massive Upside Call Buying Surfaces in $Apple (AAPL)$ & $TLT$ Not Yet at Lows
$Apple (AAPL)$Regardless of earnings reaction, the longer-term trend still appears bullish. Yesterday, a trader was quietly accumulating 20,000 contracts of the $180 strike calls expiring in late 2025 - $AAPL 20251219 180.0 CALL$ Multiple smaller-sized buys allowed this to fly under the radar of conventional large order analysis.I'm not anticipating a major earnings disappointment from Apple this quarter. Their results tend to be relatively stable. I've taken an aggressive put sale approach into the event:Sell $AAPL 20241101 230.0 PUT$ $20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF - iShares
Massive Upside Call Buying Surfaces in $Apple (AAPL)$ & $TLT$ Not Yet at Lows
Nvidia Could Reach New Highs This Week & Noteworthy Option Flows
$Nvidia (NVDA)$Nvidia has exhibited remarkable control over its share price the past two weeks, closing at $138 on 10/18 and $141.54 on 10/25 - right at or just below the strikes that institutions were heavily selling calls against.This week, the institutional covered call strategy is:Sell $NVDA 20241101 147.0 CALL$ Buy $NVDA 20241101 155.0 CALL$ with 90,000 contracts eachThe strong results from Tesla and Netflix kicked off earnings season on a positive note. There tends to be a correlated move, either up or down, during peak earnings weeks. Combined with dealers raising their strike prices, it appears downsi
Nvidia Could Reach New Highs This Week & Noteworthy Option Flows
Resetting Tesla's Q4 Trading Range, $240 No Longer a High Strike
$Tesla (TSLA)$ Waking up to see the stock price today left me dumbfounded - I thought we were targeting $260 for next week? How did it get there in a single day?No issue being wrong on my prediction, ramps like this are music to bullish ears. I mainly feel for the funds who sold those $262.5 calls as part of a covered call position and got blown through. Based on Thursday's trend, it seems highly unlikely Tesla stays below $262 next week.To be fair, the $262.5 strike wasn't an unreasonable one for institutions to sell - it represented a major long-term resistance level. Even if tagged, a pullback was likely to ensue eventually.But Musk hasn't been playing by conventional rules lately. $260 was the target? He just mashed the accelerator and blew ri
Resetting Tesla's Q4 Trading Range, $240 No Longer a High Strike
Tesla: Next Week's Target $260
$Tesla (TSLA)$Following earnings, institutions rolled their Tesla covered call positions higher:Sell $TSLA 20241101 262.5 CALL$ Buy $TSLA 20241101 282.5 CALL$ Given Tesla's history of volatile moves, I conservatively sold the $250 calls last week against my stock holdings - matching the short call strike of the institutional covered call trade as a hedge. This cautious approach paid off as shares pushed through $250.But now with stock potentially being called away, what's the best course for next week's positioning?Based on the new $262.5/$282.5 call spread, dealers seem to be pricing a likely move to $260 for
Tesla: Next Week's Target $260
Preparing Covered Calls for the Election Buffer Period
$Nvidia (NVDA)$The pullback to the $140 area is nothing major, just a normal retracement.There was even a notable covered call roll into higher strikes: $NVDA 20241220 170.0 CALL$ Since this $170 call trade printed as a "sell", it's another case of differing interpretations.Looking at this trader's prior roll from October's $135 strikes to November $155 calls, I'm inclined to view this latest trade as maintaining their spread strategy by closing the $155 calls and rolling up to the $170 strikes for December expiration.Of course, if you interpret it as an outright $170 call sale, that's fine too - just be sure to hold stock against any short call positions.The pullback does prese
Preparing Covered Calls for the Election Buffer Period
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