The Resilient US economy is Charging Up the Fed! Photo by lo lo on  Unsplash “Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth, and there will very likely be some softening of labor market conditions. Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run. We will keep at it until we are confident the job is done.”- Jerome Powell, September 21st, 2022 The Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the Fed has the “means and resolve” to restore price stability. As I mentioned a fortnight ago in my newsletter: “Checkmate”, Powell

The Current Paradigm Has A lot Of Moving Parts! Photo by Katie McNabb on Unsplash In today’s world of information overload, numerous narratives run wild across social media as everyone has their stakes involved: political affiliation, trading positions or arm-twisting from the top brass at big firms. Undoubtedly, the noise is excruciating for someone looking to get a fair view of the markets and position their portfolio according to the incoming macro data. While connecting the dots, you can’t be 100% correct, and life, as

Don’t Fall For The Narrative! Photo by Pixabay “Every great narrative is at least two narratives, if not more- the thing that is on the surface and then the things underneath which are invisible”- Ali Smith. As we navigate the age of information overload, we are constantly inundated with narratives through traditional media and biased algorithms of social media. Unfortunately, the dreadful experience throughout 2022 indicates that the media has become more biased than ever and has been weaponised to shield the top 1% and the men in power. Unsurprisingly, the media houses that were created to disseminate truth reached new lows as they spewed misinformation and engaged in criminal acts when they

The $10 Trillion Hidden Debt Problem! Photo by Henry & Co. on Unsplash One of my top 10 read pieces is “Canary In The Coal Mine”, which I wrote last year, demystifying the “troublesome” Chinese property sector. Some people would argue that Chinese Real Estate (RE) forms a small share of the total RE wealth globally; however, one can’t ignore the gargantuan building spree that China has undertaken in the last two decades. China was solely responsible for the commodity bull market that ensued in the first decade of the 21st century. Nevertheless, as the Chinese RE sector peaked and indicated the first signs

A Plethora of events is ready to rock the Oil Markets! Photo by Zukiman Mohamad “There is no free market in Oil”- Peter Defazio. In forms unbeknownst to humanity, Mother Nature is responsible for the rapid advancement of the human race witnessed in the last century. Today we are at the centre of a fierce disagreement about phasing-out fossil fuels; however, we can’t deny the fact that the discovery of oil and gas was one of the critical milestones that enabled humanity to achieve modern-era success. Over the span of a million years, by the combination of pressure and heat, Mother Nature transformed the plant and animal remains (covered under layers of rock, sand and silt) into crude oil.

Europe is facing its worst year since WW2! Source: Photo by John Moeses Bauan on  Unsplash “1992 is not a year on which I shall look back with undiluted pleasure. In the words of one of my more sympathetic correspondents, it has turned out to be an annus horribilis.”- Queen Elizabeth II, November 24th, 1992. 1992 was the year that jolted the UK’s Royal Family to its essence. The various scandals, the separation of Prince Charles and Diana, the Divorce of the Queen’s daughter, the separation of the Queen’s second son and the fire in Windsor Castle wobbled the royal family. 2022 is turning about to be the “Annus Horribilis” for Europe.

The FX market is in turmoil! Photo by Alexander Grey on Unsplash “The US Dollar is our currency but your problem”- John Connolly. Fed Chair Paul Volcker created history when he tightened the monetary policy by epic proportions in the 80s. The Fed Funds Rate (FFR) was raised to a record 20% in 1980–81. The domino effect was the enormous appreciation of the USD as the precious capital rushed back to the US. The global currency markets went for a toss, and the finance ministers and Central Bankers of France, West Germany, Japan, th

Do you want to know who is winning? Photo by Victor Freitas from Pexels “Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices in the longer run. The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. We will stay the course until the job is done.”- Jerome Powell, November 2nd, 2022. On June 10th this year, the US CPI data came out at 8.6%, the highest since 1981, sending shockwaves across the markets worldwide. Thanks for reading Marquee Finance by Sagar! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. Within a span of

An Epic Battle Is Brewing! Photo by Frida Lannerström on Unsplash “We continue to anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time.”- Jerome Powell, December 14th, 2022. As I wrote: “Tug-Of-War” post the last Fed rate action in November, it was evident that markets were spooked by the Fed’s

“If you see a fraud and do not say a fraud, you are a fraud”-Nassim Taleb. Photo by Behnam Norouzi on Unsplash Lies, deceit, fraud, celebrities, lobbying, money laundering, hacking, and a disgraced couple on the run; well, this appears candidly out of a blockbuster Hollywood entertainer. Yes, ladies and gentlemen, this is the story of FTX and largely of the crypto world, which was once glorified as “revolutionary” and is now saddled with gruesome tales of subterfuge by the gang of Gen-Z conmen and grifters. Let us dig in! The Cry

Now Is The Time To Act! Photo by CHUTTERSNAP on Unsplash “Lithium and rare earths will soon be more important than oil and gas. Our demand for rare earths alone will increase fivefold by 2030. […] We must avoid becoming dependent again, as we did with oil and gas. […] We will identify strategic projects all along the supply chain, from extraction to refining, from processing to recycling. And we will build up strategic reserves where supply is at risk. This is why today I am announcing a European Critical Raw Materials Act.”

Bond Markets have nowhere to escape after the Fed’s checkmate! Photo by Felix Mittermeier on  Unsplash “While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labour market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses. These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation. But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain.”- Jerome Powell, Fed Chair, Jackson Hole 2022. In the game of Chess, the player’s utmost aim is to propel checkmate on their opponent. Checkmate is the ultimate move where the player’s king is in check, and there is no escape or defence possible. At

Is Twitter’s Future In Jeopardy? Photo by Mariia Shalabaieva on Unsplash Good Decisions come from experience. Experience comes from making bad decisions.”- Mark Twain. The world’s most valuable automaker today, Tesla, was on the verge of bankruptcy in 2008. Merely three days from bankruptcy filing, Elon Musk could have lost all his fortune as he invested all his money into Tesla. However, there was a twist, and fortunately, Tesla obtained funding on Christmas eve, and it came back from the clutches of bankruptcy.

If you think that inflation has peaked, then you are gravely mistaken! Photo by CHUTTERSNAP on  Unsplash “Ignorance is not bliss. Ignorance is poverty. Ignorance is devastation. Ignorance is tragedy. And ignorance is illness. It all stems from ignorance.”- Jim Rohn. Covid-19 caught every country in the world by surprise. Nobody, even in the developed world, was prepared for a pandemic; thus, the response was contentious and chaotic. The lockdowns across the globe had a catastrophic impact on the economic output. The world witnessed an unprecedented supply shock and recognised the dominance of China in the world’s supply chain ranging from A

A Historic Policy “Blunder” By The World’s Most Powerful Central Bank? Photo by fikry anshor on Unsplash With some notable exceptions, businessmen favour free enterprise in general but are opposed to it when it comes to themselves”- Milton Friedman. Much has been said and written about the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse and the subsequent events that unfolded post the meltdown. So, I would not waste your precious time by repeating the obvious. However, we can’t ignore the precedence that the Federal Reserve has set in tack

Markets Are Not Ready For What Is Coming! Photo by Jim Wilson on Unsplash “And it is our judgment that we’re not yet at a sufficiently restrictive policy stance, which is why we say that we expect ongoing hikes will be appropriate.”-Jerome Powell. A mind-blowing Non-Farm Payrolls Number (NFP), a significant easing of financial conditions thanks to tighter credit spreads and an unbelievable rally in stocks, a slight recovery in housing and auto sales and a bump in Services PMI: The data releases in the past fortnight point out that the

“If you see a fraud and do not say a fraud, you are a fraud”-Nassim Taleb. Photo by Behnam Norouzi on Unsplash Lies, deceit, fraud, celebrities, lobbying, money laundering, hacking, and a disgraced couple on the run; well, this appears candidly out of a blockbuster Hollywood entertainer. Yes, ladies and gentlemen, this is the story of FTX and largely of the crypto world, which was once glorified as “revolutionary” and is now saddled with gruesome tales of subterfuge by the gang of Gen-Z conmen and grifters. Let us dig in! The Cry

The Stage Is Set For Higher Volatility Across Asset Classes! Photo by Vu Nguyen on Unsplash In what many market participants call “Operation Say Nothing”, the busiest week in the Central Banks Universe was marked by CBs Ex-Japan “NOT” committing anything and dumping the forward guidance. The data-dependent approach (also meeting by meeting approach), first popularized by Christian Lagarde, has now landed in the USA as JayPo refused to divulge the future rate hike details. The ECB did something intriguing apart from the expected 25 bps

Yet It Still Happened This Week! “Markets Stop Panicking When Central Banks Start Panicking.” In what could be termed as one of the most tumultuous weeks for the markets since the “black swan” event that caused a flash crash of epic proportions three years ago, the collapse of SVB initiated a sequence of events which led to historical moves in the sovereign bond markets. Though equity markets remain unnerved and the selling pressure was concentrated among the banking names, the bond markets witnessed excruciating pain. Bond markets underwent a massive panic attack as liquidity dried up and volatility surpassed unprecedented 2008 GFC levels. It was chaos on trading desks as traders who started their careers post the GFC had never encountered such violent moves and deteriorat

Investors Have Burnt Their Fingers Investing In This Asset Class! Photo by Maxim Hopman on Unsplash “An emerging market is a country where politics matters at least as much as economics to the market.”- Ian Bremmer. The phrase “Emerging Market” was coined in 1981 by Antoine van Agtmael, the then Deputy director of the capital markets department of the World Bank’s International Finance Corp. (IFC), as a euphemism for third-world countries. According to Antoine: “People looked down upon the ‘Third World.’ It sounded so dista