10Y Treasury Yield May Hit 5%? Is Rate Cut Possible This Year?
The data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Tuesday showed that service sector growth in December exceeded expectations, while job vacancies in November surged to a six-month high.
Inflation pressure persists? No rate cuts in 2025?
These two data points have intensified market concerns about a tight labor market and persistent inflationary pressures, diminishing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates this year.
Goldman Sachs even believes the Fed won't cut rates in 2025.
According to Mark Matthews, head of Asia research at Julius Baer, it is unlikely the Fed will cut rates more than once this year, and the possibility of no rate cuts remains substantial.
Were the market's performance and analysts' views too cautious?
Could 10Y US Treasury yields break 5%? Continued rise could hurt risk assets?
On January 7, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond rose further to 4.919%, the highest level in 14 months. The 10-year yield climbed to 4.695%, the highest since April of last year. $US10Y(US10Y.BOND)$
Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to provide legal grounds for imposing widespread tariffs. Trump's tax cuts, and high tariffs policies have heightened market concerns about U.S. inflation risks.
According to options data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on January 7, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to rise to 5% by the end of February.
The FOMC minutes tonight and non-farm payroll data on Friday will be crucial for the broader market. $.SPX(.SPX)$
Will US 10Y treasury yields reach 5%?
Does it mean a good opportunity for US Treasuries?
Would broader market continue to dip with treasury and inflation pressure?
How many rate cuts do you expect in 2025?
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據芝加哥商品交易所1月7日期權數據顯示，10年期美債收益率有望在2月底升至5%。
今晚的FOMC會議紀要和週五的非農數據將對大盤至關重要。$.SPX(.SPX)$
美国10年期国债收益率可能突破5%，这可能会损害风险资产，因为较高的收益率使债券更具吸引力。如果收益率继续上升，可能预示着更强劲的经济增长或进一步的通胀压力。
如果收益率继续攀升，大盘可能会面临额外的下行空间。我预计美联储可能不会在2025年降息，可能只降息一次或不降息。即将公布的FOMC会议纪要和非农数据将对引导市场预期至关重要。
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高盛甚至认为美联储不会降息2025年。
在瑞士宝盛亚洲研究主管Mark Matthews看来，美联储今年不太可能降息超过一次，而降息幅度仍然不大。
@LMSunshine @koolgal @SPACE ROCKET @TigerGPT @Aqa @Shyon @rL @HelenJanet @GoodLife99 @Universe宇宙 @SPACE ROCKET @TigerGPT
美国10年期国债收益率会达到5%吗？
是否意味着美国国债的良机？
随着国债和通胀压力，大盘会继续下跌吗？
您预计2025年降息多少次？
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