Five Classic US Stock Market Illusions! Have You Fallen for Them?
Come see how many you've checked off!
On the road of trading U.S. stocks, no one stays clear-headed forever. We constantly swing between chasing highs and panicking lows, trapped in the cycle of “I saw this coming” and “I’ll just wait a bit longer.”
Here are 5 classic trading illusions, how many have you fallen for?
1. $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ is going to crash!
On the day Circle went public, its stock price doubled and kept hitting new highs for two weeks. Everyone said it was overvalued and bound to drop — yet it just kept climbing.
2. $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ is about to rebound!
“This time, for real!” — how many traders have held onto AMD through weekly lows, RSI divergences, or pre-earnings hype? And every bounce feels like a fleeting mirage.
3. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ is too expensive!
Tesla’s always been considered overvalued. Sales are down, yet the stock keeps rising. The market seems to ignore fundamentals — sometimes a new AI story from Musk is enough to send it up 10%. This week’s robotaxi pitch? Let’s see how far it takes us.
4. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ is done for!
People keep talking about the AI bubble, but NVIDIA bounces back to $140 every single time. Just when you think it’s finally going to collapse, Jensen steps in and lifts it up again.
5. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ has bottomed out!
Google’s valuation is so low surely it has bottomed? AI monetization is finally here, so why isn't it rising? Just like AMD, everyone keeps calling the bottom, but it just won’t go up.
Have you fallen for any of these illusions?
Or do you have your own “misjudgment” story?
Share your most unforgettable market illusion in the comments!
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1. $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ is going to crash!
I’ve been investing for 15+ years and thought I knew better. When $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ doubled on listing, I immediately thought “another overhyped IPO destined to crash.”
Been burned by many IPOs that skyrocketed then plummeted. So I waited for the “inevitable” correction.
Watched CRCL climb past $31, then $62 to $199, thinking “unsustainable.” The irony? I actually use Circle’s services and believed in their potential. But past disasters made me overly cautious.
Finally bought at $248 thinking I was smart, only to watch it pull back. Classic case of fighting the last war instead of analysing the current situation.
Sometimes experience makes you too rigid. Still learning…[Shy]
@Wayneqq @Universe宇宙 @LuckyPiggie @Fenger1188 @Success88 @SR050321 @HelenJanet @DiAngel @Kaixiang @SPOT_ON come join
well, perhaps at times... [Sly] [Sly] [Sly]
Have you fallen for any of these illusions?
Or do you have your own “misjudgment” story?
Share your most unforgettable market illusion in the comments!
REWARDS
All valid comments will receive 5 Tiger Coins
Circle was another surprise. I was sure the rally would fade after the IPO hype, but it kept defying gravity. Watching it climb while sitting on the sidelines was a good reminder that narrative often trumps logic in the short term, especially when float is low and momentum is high.
One of my biggest misreads was Tesla. I used to think it was ridiculously overpriced, but I’ve learned the hard way that valuation doesn't always matter in the face of vision, hype, and Musk magic. The market truly runs on emotion as much as data. Still learning, still surviving—and hopefully catching fewer illusions next time!
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars
哇，我已经被NVDA玩过很多次了！去年我认为自己很聪明，以120美元的价格做空了这只股票，因为人工智能泡沫肯定会破裂，对吗？这是错误的！詹森穿着皮夹克出来，说了一些关于量子的花哨话，股票飞到145美元。那周我一边吃方便面一边恐慌性亏本卖出。现在我只是跟着咖啡店的叔叔——他说买英伟达，我就买。简单的生活。 [Helpless]
三、特斯拉“太贵”
特斯拉就像那个昂贵的女朋友，她耗尽了你的钱包，但你不能分手。从200美元开始我就一直在说价格过高，但该股就像我们的COE价格一样不断上涨。每次埃隆在X上发布一些随机的机器人图片，每个人都会疯狂并购买更多。我的Excel显示该公司一文不值，但市场并不关心我的分析。现在我只是接受特斯拉是靠炒作和Elon的午夜想法运行的，而不是实际的汽车销售。这样生活更轻松！ [Duh]
🟠 🅗🅐🅟🅟🅨 Ⓣⓡⓐⓓⓘⓝⓖ 🅐🅗🅔🅐🅓! 🅒🅗🅔🅔🅡🅢 🅑🅒 🍀🍀🍀🟠
So I jumped on, not because I had done deep analysis. Not because I understood the long term risks but simply because I was afraid of being left behind.
That is FOMO, the Fear of Missing Out.
At first, it felt that I made the right call. The stock kept climbing but then came the cracks. Demand normalised, labour controversies surfaced and the market turned. The price kept falling and falling.
Looking back I realised I wasn't investing. I was reacting. I let the crowd excitement become my conviction. I confused momentum with safety.
Top Glove wasn't just a bad trade. It showed me how easily emotion can masquerade as insight. That is a lesson I carry with me into every investment decision now.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @CaptainTiger
I have a collection of those for a good decades worth… and they are still happening. Something we just don’t learn, do we? [Facepalm][Spurting]
Starting from dot com era of $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ is just another dot com farce… to $Microsoft(MSFT)$ can’t grow forever in the “older days”, which I eventually ended up buying 20 years after I thought about those.
In the modern days, there’s the $Strategy(MSTR)$ is just a silly bitcoin cheerleader, $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ is going to be delisted by the exchange for its fraudulent trading activity and finally, stay also at cryptocurrency, $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ is just another crypto pump and dump scam! How these fly with the blatantly corrupt Donald Trump!? These are just a couple of small examples that I have missed seemingly easy targets.
Like I said, I have missed them and I will continue to misjudge these stories.
The question I posed is if this is my illusion, or market’s? [Tongue]
最让我难忘的一次市场幻觉，是我当初以为“科技股永远不会跌”。2020年疫情期间，Zoom、Teladoc、Shopify这种居家概念股天天飙，我被短期涨幅冲昏了头，不看估值不看基本面，单纯相信“趋势”。那时的我，简直像被洗脑一样，一看到回调就“加仓上车”，自以为是逆向思维，结果后来发现只是站在了崩盘的起点。
最典型的误判，是买进Zoom后在500多加码，幻想它能涨到1000。但现实很快教育我：当市场预期过高，哪怕财报再好，股价也不一定买账。Zoom财报其实不错，但股价就是一路下滑，我却死撑着不卖，结果从盈利变成被套。
这件事教会我一个残酷的事实：市场不会因为你看了很多KOL的视频、做了很多功课而奖赏你。投资不是“信仰”，而是一种理性分配资源的决策。别再轻信任何“这次不一样”的幻觉，往往最危险的，就是你最确信的那一刻。