ORCL Drag Down US Market on Mon, 20 Oct?

JC888
10-20

It was a week not for the faint-hearted.

For the week of Oct 13 - 17, 2025, the US market was all over the place.

From a euphoric comeback on Mon, 13 Oct 2025 hot on the heels of (a) “final” ceasefire aftermath in the Middle East between Israel & Hamas and (b) ‘expected’ TACO moment by Trump, where he softened his tone on China days after threatening steep tariffs.

Optimism was further lifted by AI momentum— $Broadcom(AVGO)$’s OpenAI chip deal helped tech lead gains.

Unfortunately, it proved to be short-lived for the company because by Fri, 17 Oct 2025 - AVGO ended marginally lower than when it started the week. (see below)

To me OpenAI seemed to be all-the-rage at the moment.

For the past 2 weeks, it has been under the spotlight.

Apart from OpenAI-Broadcom strategic collaboration, on 6 Oct 2025, it was also announced that OpenAI and $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ has entered a multi-year agreement to deploy up to 6 GW of AMD Instinct GPUs, beginning with 1 GW of MI450-series chips in the H2 2026.

If OpenAI is listed on the US exchange, it would have soared to great highs on such back-to-back “good” news.

Tue, 14 Oct 2025 and Wed, 15 Oct 2025 saw US market trading sideways as sentiments improved with renewed interest in AI and profit-taking hitting mega cap stocks, all at the same time.

Then disaster struck on Thu, 16 Oct 2025, triggered by revelations of (a) loan losses and (b) possible fraud at 2 US regional lenders, Zions Bancorporation & Western Alliance Bank.

What Happened

Zions disclosed a $50 million charge-off on two commercial and industrial loans from its California division, while Western Alliance announced it was pursuing legal action over fraudulent loans.

These disclosures sparked broad fears about credit quality and risk management within US regional banking sector.​

The crash was short-lived but reignited flashbacks to 2023 regional bank debacle, emphasizing lingering fragility in smaller US lenders.

Wrapping up the week, US market drifted higher on Fri, 17 Oct 2025 with Trump further easing fears, stating that:

  • High tariffs on China were not sustainable.

  • He will meet China, President Xi in South Korea in 2 weeks’ time.

All these calmed trade tensions, with Bank stocks rebounding while Communication Services and Tech closed higher.

Overall, US market managed to close marginally higher. (see below)

  • DJIA: +1.08% (+492.52 to 46,190.61).

  • S&P 500: +0.63% (+41.48 to 6,664.01). Advancing issues outnumbered falling ones by a 2.6-to-1.0 ratio.

    The index posted 7 new highs and 6 new lows.

  • Nasdaq: +0.45% (+101.30 to 22,679.96). Nasdaq recorded 37 new highs and 114 new lows.

  • US exchanges trading volume was relatively light, with 19.6 billion shares traded, vs an average of 20.7 billion shares over the previous 20 sessions.

Not Well At Oracle-ville.

The same could not be said for $Oracle(ORCL)$.

It was not too long ago that ORCL was hailed as the IT comeback kid when traders & market alike, took an interest in it again.

I had a post about it on 16 Sep 2025. click here ! for details.

In less than a month since my “comeback kid” post, ORCL suffered a backlash because of a scathing report from The Information that had raised questions about ORCL’s plans to buy billions of $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ chips to rent as a cloud provider to clients like OpenAI.

Click here ! for my 14 Oct 2025 post, help to Repost so more people will know ok. Thanks !

4 days on, another bomb has dropped.

ORCL is expected to open lower on Mon, 20 Oct 2025. (see below)

On Fri, 17 Oct 2025, ORCL confirmed that Envoy Air, $American Airlines(AAL)$' largest regional carrier, suffered a hack in recent days as part of the wave of extortion attempts from hackers exploiting ORCL’s E-Business Suite applications.

Envoy Air spokesperson said in an email that (a) it is aware of the incident, (b) the company is investigating and (c) has contacted law enforcement.

Preliminary investigation results showed that:

  • No sensitive or customer data was affected.

  • A limited amount of business information & commercial contact details may have been compromised.

According to “CL0P,” a cybercriminal extortion group with a history of wide-ranging compromises against third-party software or service providers:

  • Envoy Air is the 2nd entity to confirm it was hacked as a result of a campaign targeting Oracle E-Business Suite applications.

ORCL - What’s At Stake ?

Greater implications for ORCL will be:

  • Reputational risk.

  • Increased scrutiny over security of its widely-used software products, that could pressure its enterprise sales and renewals in the short term.

Will ORCL's (a) strong enterprise customer base and (b) rapid responses to patch vulnerabilities be be able to mitigate prolonged material impact, remains to-be-seen.

For the week beginning 20 Oct 2025, ORCL could experience near-term volatility as investors weigh the cyberattack's implications against its robust market position and recent growth drivers, especially its AI infrastructure deals.

The stock may see cautious trading with a potential slight pullback followed by stabilization, all this contingent on how Oracle manages (1) the fallout and (2) reassures clients on system security.

For now, significant share price disruption appears unlikely - not unless further attacks or vulnerabilities emerge imminently.

Stock Movement.

From 16 Sep 2025 when I first shared about ORCL until last Friday’s closing, it has exhibited significant volatility with a strong upward trend driven largely by (i) positive AI-related developments and (ii) cloud infrastructure growth.

The short report by The Information temporarily stop to ORCL’s recovery and the most recent security breached to ORCL’s application is going to make things worse, after market has digested the news.

Under such ‘negative’ sentiments, will you go in for the kill and buy the dip OR wait for stability to return before going in ? Timing a buy seems so important in a wildly volatile market.

Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks.

Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks.

  • Do you think US market will continue to recover this week, barring any unforeseen circumstances ’?

  • Do you think ORCL’s security will ever recover from the damages inflicted by hackers on its E-business suite application; hence its stock price ?

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