Gold’s Parabolic Run to Hit Targets Early? When Will the Party End?
$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ is no longer just a slow-moving safe-haven asset—its price action is starting to look like a high-growth tech stock, with explosive momentum. While markets are still debating AI commercialization, gold has already surged past $4,800 in January, leaving many Wall Street banks’ annual forecasts far behind. $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$
1) Wall Street’s “Collective Miss”: A Gold Rally They Can’t Catch
Looking back at last year, an interesting pattern emerged: gold kept rising, and analysts repeatedly raised their targets just to chase the trend. As we enter 2026, the same movie seems to be playing again.
Morgan Stanley previously expected gold to reach $4,800 by year-end, yet the market “hit” that target before January even ended. This collective lag in expectations suggests a deeper repricing may be underway—driven by global central-bank de-dollarization and renewed safe-haven demand.
2) Step-Ladder Targets: When Technicals and Institutional Forecasts Align
Combining the current Elliott Wave structure with the latest institutional consensus, here’s a roadmap:
Short-term target: $5,000 (a psychological line in sight)
Gold is only about 2.3% away from this level. HSBC and Deutsche Bank expect gold to challenge this key psychological mark in the near term. If gold can hold above $5,000, it would effectively enter a “low-resistance zone.”
Mid-term target: $5,250–$5,300 (sub-wave 5 acceleration)
This range is a key resistance zone based on Fibonacci extensions. BofA and JPM have moved quickly to keep up with the market, lifting their 2026 targets into this band. It also matches the “secondary Wave 5 within Wave 3” type of breakout behavior we’re observing.
Long-term target: $5,900–$6,000 (late-stage major Wave 5)
This is the most aggressive endpoint projection for the current bull cycle. More bullish houses such as Yardeni Research and Jefferies argue that under extreme inflation pressure or a further escalation in geopolitics, a major Wave 5 sprint could point directly toward $6,000 as early as this year.
3) When Will the Party End?
In commodities, Wave 5 is often the most explosive phase—powered by fundamentals and FOMO. But investors should watch for two classic “end-of-run” signals:
Exhaustion gap / blow-off behavior: a near-vertical push toward $6,000 alongside a sharp surge in volume—often signaling buyer fatigue.
Real rates turning higher: if inflation data falls faster than expected and real yields spike, the rising opportunity cost of holding gold can become a major headwind. Gold may retreat to $4200-4400 during major wave 4.
Community Discussion
If gold hits $5,000 before February, do you expect a healthy pullback or a straight launch toward $5,900?
Do you trust JPM’s more “steady” target ($5,055) or Yardeni’s aggressive call ($6,000)?
Drop your sharpest take in the comments to win tiger coins!
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If gold hits $5,000 before February, do you expect a healthy pullback or a straight launch toward $5,900?
Do you trust JPM’s more “steady” target ($5,055) or Yardeni’s aggressive call ($6,000)?
Drop your sharpest take in the comments to win tiger coins!
如果金价在2月份之前达到5000美元，我预计会出现回调，但可能是一次浅而健康的回调。向4,700-4,800美元区域暂停将有助于重置动能，而向5,900美元直线垂直飙升则更像是后期疲惫。
在摩根大通和亚德尼之间，我倾向于摩根大通短期内的稳定前景，同时将亚德尼6,000美元的看涨期权视为尾部风险情景。对我来说，5000美元是一个关卡，5250-5300美元是波动区，6000美元需要明显的兴奋和额外的宏观压力。
@TigerClub @TigerStars @Tiger_comments
I would most probably go with the the more measured, consensus-oriented JPM target for the 2026 timeline. A move to $5,000 would likely be met with a corrective phase, and reaching Yardeni's $6,000 target this year would require an acceleration of the already high risk aversion and extreme market conditions.
But one thing I know for sure is that Gold is regarded as a safe haven asset in a world fraught with geopolitical tensions and uncertainties.
So it makes perfect sense to invest in a Gold ETF such as $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$ or $iShares Gold Trust(IAU)$ as a counterbalance against the volatility in the markets.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerClub @CaptainTiger
Gold prices could reach $5,000 if economic uncertainty, inflation, and geopolitical tensions continue to drive demand; however, a rapid rise would likely face resistance and require strong momentum, and if gold hits $5,000 before February, the technical setup would likely trigger a pullback rather than a direct surge to $5,900, as parabolic moves often require consolidation and profit-taking
Confidence in the $5,055 target from JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is logical if the rally is viewed as a reflection of current economic trends and realistic price movements; conversely, the $6,000 forecast from Yardeni depends on extreme market volatility or systemic geopolitical shifts pushing gold to new heights
Gold could test the $5,000 level; however, surpassing it and shooting straight to $6,000 would likely need significantly stronger catalysts to drive that kind of move
On targets: JPM $5,055 is the more reliable base-case anchor. Yardeni $6,000 is a valid bullish scenario if policy volatility and risk premium stay elevated. Use JPM for trims, Yardeni as stretch upside.
May be quite different from equities pull back scenarios.
I guess it wouldn't pull back much even if breach 5k, unless countries level offload it. cheers. [Smile] [Smile]
"Stair-Step" Pattern: In strong bull markets, gold prices often move in a "stair-step" fashion a sharp rally followed by a period of consolidation, then another rally. This suggests that if the fundamental drivers (e.g., high inflation, geopolitical risk) remain in place, the upward trend can continue.
New Price Floors: After a significant rally, previous resistance levels can become new support levels, establishing higher price floors.
"gold kept rising, and analysts repeatedly raised their targets"
It has been shown that the predictions always err on the safe side and almost always are wrong.
So take it with a pinch of salt, take the news and predictions in context, but do your due diligence.
With a loose cannon as the us president, gold will be shining very bright, it sounds wild for the 5000, but now even 6000 sounds possible.