To The Moon

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ 

🌟🌟🌟$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ versus $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  : Which is Better? I believe that  in a diversified portfolio both TLT and SPY ETFs balances each other like Yin and Yang.   With the much anticipated interest rate cuts by the Feds, TLT would flourish as bonds have an inverse relationship to interest rates.  Similarly SPY would also enjoy an increase as lower interest rates mean that the US companies have lower debt costs.  Growth companies like $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$  $C3.ai, Inc.(AI

The $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ has weathered years of volatility, plummeting from $160 to $80 in less than two years, only to rebound to $100.57. While the recent upswing has delivered considerable returns to investors, there's substantial room for further growth, especially when compared to the $S&P 500(.SPX)$, which is nearing historical highs.Given the potential challenges posed by increasing interest expenses and assumed economic downturn, TLT is poised for gains in the medium term.Why TLT Over S&P 500? With a 40% drop from all-time highs, investing in long-bonds over the S&P 500 is a better choice, currently perceived as significantly overvalued in the aftermath of a recessi

I would still sell put options of $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ but it makes sense to lower the strike price now. Recovery is seldom in a straight line, expect ups n downs

I would sell a OTM put option on TLT for sure...If I wasn't selling a put on NEM instead. I think it's basically the same bet, but NEM has some other bullish catalysts that make this recent pullback very enticing as an investor.

not trading options. a long way to go to average down on $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$. patience is a virtue. if anyone is in the same boat, yell out in solidarity ✊

I will look at the premium first before deciding to sell put of TLT during the crash. The rate cut may happen in March or some time later.

Replying to @DiAngel:Hard and not high.. 🤦‍♀️😓… not under the influence of alcohol 🍾🥂🍺🥃🍸🍹🍷 while writing this post 😂//@DiAngel:I not an option person. Thus, I will not sell put on TLT. Nobody has a crystal ball to determine when the rate cut will happen. Maybe the slogan “sell in may and go away, but remember come back in september” might come true. Ie rate cut in May. 😇🤭😂🙏 Anyway, it will happen eventually. Just be patient! 🧘‍♀️🧘‍♀️🧘‍♀️ I am working very high towards my SG dividends KPI then the rate cut. 🤫🫣🤭 Today Tbill is very disappointing 🥺😢😭

I not an option person. Thus, I will not sell put on TLT. Nobody has a crystal ball to determine when the rate cut will happen. Maybe the slogan “sell in may and go away, but remember come back in september” might come true. Ie rate cut in May. 😇🤭😂🙏 Anyway, it will happen eventually. Just be patient! 🧘‍♀️🧘‍♀️🧘‍♀️ I am working very high towards my SG dividends KPI then the rate cut. 🤫🫣🤭 Today Tbill is very disappointing 🥺😢😭

Not a financial guy .I really dun know how to understand this theroy or concept how these affect stock market

yes surge for more volatility

i guess too early to tell, Fed probably looking at data and deciding if they should cut, pause... I'll be doing the wait and see approach till things are certain... @DiAngel @LMSunshine @koolgal @GoodLife99 @Universe宇宙 @rL @xXxZealandxXx @Shyon @Aqa Would you sell put of TLT during the crash?

Replying to @MHh: @DiAngel @SPOT_ON @SR050321 @AliceSam @rL @HelenJanet @Fenger1188 @Kaixiang @Universe宇宙 come join//@MHh:When will rate cut be is anybody’s guess. The data keeps fluctuat

When will rate cut be is anybody’s guess. The data keeps fluctuating..will prefer to continuously average down on good stocks because eventually the rate cut will come. I dont like bonds haha… so no.. wont try to get it whether as a stock or option

can sell puts, but buy tlt better. guarantee go up. if not enough cash, can use options to do a bullish synthetic to "buy" tlt. sell a put option, and buy a call at same strike, when you see a bullish uptrend signal.

No surge is still indicate the market is still seeing Fed will maintain interest hike. Good luck. I just invested T bill

Affected by lower rate cut expectations, 10Y Treasury yield surpassed 4% on Wednesday.In December, US retail sales rose by 0.6% compared to the previous month, exceeding estimates of 0.4% and doubling the November increase of 0.3%.The comprehensive data indicates robust demand of consumption during the holiday season. Many traders have further retreated from betting on rate cut in March.Analyst from BlackRock commented, "I believe the current data is not sufficient to give the Fed confidence to cut rates in the short term. The rate cut may occur later in the year than in March."However, the surge also means higher premium of $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ put options.Would you sell put of TLT during the crash?How do you view the rate cut

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ BAGHOLDERS!Hot inflation, going back up. No cuts. No recession, soft landing, strong job market.I told ya, TLT is DEAD MONEY.BAGHOLDERS with excuses! Bulls cant take it no mo!Higher for Longer and Longer for Higher!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ Raise your hand if you bought the Ten and locked in to Four Percent for Ten Years? Not that I believe. The awards are almost all foreign buyers. Results to me displayed a thin amount of US buyers. Therefore, TLT trades after hours are also mostly foreign buyers?

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ Still leaning a little bullish but not feeling great about it. Stuff like the RSI don't strike me as overbought, and MACD and Bollinger bands look like they're already stretched to the downside. And I see so much negative news on bonds on social media. In part because of inflation scares, which are justified. Sooooo... I feel bonds climb a wall of worry or something like that. It just feels like that kind of a setup.

With the anticipation of Fed having interest rate cut, investors and traders have been closely tracking bond yields since 2023. This is because the 1ield of US 10-year Treasury bonds moved to near 5% in October 2023, as level it had not matched since 2022. Why Did US Bond Yield Rise? When the pandemic began in March in 2020, the Fed lowered its benchmark interest rate. This was to prevent restrictions from crippling economic output across sectors. The Fed has no intention of raising rates, as long as inflation remains below the 2% mark. However, with inflation rising, investors became nervous about possible rate hikes; we saw more selling off fixed income positions that favour higher-yielding assets. This caused treasury prices to drop and, consequently, yields to rise. After a period o

Update on recent trading strategies for $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ and $Direxion Daily 20 Year Plus Treasury Bull 3x Shares(TMF)$ For the background on my trading opinions on TLT and TMF, please refer to the three previous articles:Is Selling Puts on TLT the Best Strategy Right Now?Why do I sell TMF calls, not TLT？Reviewing Options Trading on U.S. Treasury ETFsI began selling puts on TLT in early November. In December, I added selling calls on TMF. At that time, the trading logic was

The $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ , an indicator for long-term bonds, saw erratic movements on Friday, reflecting uncertainty among bond investors following December's labor market report.Initially, the $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ fell more than 1.0%, but rallied 1.5% within an hour, only to fall back into negative territory by midday.The labor market report showed 216,000 new jobs, beating estimates and indicating continued economic growth. However, 71,000 jobs from previous months were also revised downwards, keeping leaving the unemployment rate at 3.7%.Investors who were initially uncertain about the Fed's stance tended to buy, but concerns about a con

Affected by lower rate cut expectations, 10Y Treasury yield surpassed 4% on Wednesday.In December, US retail sales rose by 0.6% compared to the previous month, exceeding estimates of 0.4% and doubling the November increase of 0.3%.The comprehensive data indicates robust demand of consumption during the holiday season. Many traders have further retreated from betting on rate cut in March.Analyst from BlackRock commented, "I believe the current data is not sufficient to give the Fed confidence to cut rates in the short term. The rate cut may occur later in the year than in March."However, the surge also means higher premium of $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ put options.Would you sell put of TLT during the crash?How do you view the rate cut

The $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ has weathered years of volatility, plummeting from $160 to $80 in less than two years, only to rebound to $100.57. While the recent upswing has delivered considerable returns to investors, there's substantial room for further growth, especially when compared to the $S&P 500(.SPX)$, which is nearing historical highs.Given the potential challenges posed by increasing interest expenses and assumed economic downturn, TLT is poised for gains in the medium term.Why TLT Over S&P 500? With a 40% drop from all-time highs, investing in long-bonds over the S&P 500 is a better choice, currently perceived as significantly overvalued in the aftermath of a recessi

With the long-term US Treasury bond yields falling to their lowest level in three months, US long-term bond ETFs have seen a unilateral rise. ETFs such as $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ $Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares(TMF)$ $ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury(TBT)$ $ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury(UBT)$ $Direxion Daily 20 Year Plus Treasury Bear 3x Shares(TMV)$ that offer leveraged long and short positions on US bond indexes, have all presented significant opportunities. In addition to direct investments in US Treasury bonds, ETFs such as

1. $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ and $Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares(TMF)$ surged on TuesdayOn Tuesday, $TLT led the gains among bond ETFs, and the underlying 3x ETF- $TMF was also up 6.21%.Why $TLT leads the bond ETFs on Tuesday？$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ is the world’s largest U.S. bond ETF. One direct reason is that the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond is falling below 4.2% for the first time since early September. The yield on the benchmark Treasury bond fell after new data showed the number of job openings at the end of October was lower than expected, a signal to the Federal Reserve that the economy is cooling.Barr

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ call option volume on Wednesday was the 2nd highest in history.Is this a sign of a major event looming in the future?Are investors seeking a safe haven in $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ ?Do you still holding some related tickers?The recent data shows an undeniable surge in trading volume for $TLT call options. This reflects market volatility and indicates a shift by investors towards fixed-income securities.This trend aligns with the recent policy shifts of central banks and underscores the importance of diversifying investment portfolios to cope with market fluctuations.Looking at the bigger picture, it appears to be a strategic response to the uncertain

🌟🌟🌟$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ versus $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  : Which is Better? I believe that  in a diversified portfolio both TLT and SPY ETFs balances each other like Yin and Yang.   With the much anticipated interest rate cuts by the Feds, TLT would flourish as bonds have an inverse relationship to interest rates.  Similarly SPY would also enjoy an increase as lower interest rates mean that the US companies have lower debt costs.  Growth companies like $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$  $C3.ai, Inc.(AI

After peaking at the end of October, US bond yields have been decreasing steadily, and trading in long-term has become "crowded". The reasons are clear:1. Recent US economic data does not support further interest rate hikes, and the pace of economic slowdown may even be faster than expected. This also increases the risk of "staying at the current interest rate level for longer". CPI is already a lagging indicator, reflecting macro trends from a previous period. Powell is very cautious and would rather miss out than predict (market predictions) in advance, so the market always moves ahead of policy.2. Long-term US bonds with yields over 5% are rare, and in addition to common asset allocation demands, they also attract some speculative traders. The liquidity of long-term bonds is not as good

The CPI for November was released last night, and it is clear that it slightly exceeded expectations (month-on-month growth rate increased to 0.1%, higher than the previous value and the expected 0%; core month-on-month growth rate rebounded from 0.2% to 0.3%). This also indicates that inflation is not returning to normal levels as quickly as anticipated.We believe that, in addition to changes in expectations for Federal Reserve policy, US stock investors should pay more attention to the "lag effect of CPI" and the impact of "different sector differentiations".Lagging indicator CPIIt must be said that the lag effect of CPI varies at different times. For example, the reaction to "housing" prices often lags behind by about 6 months, which is why the Federal Reserve has always emphasized the

December FOMC meeting is coming, with the last suspenseful suspense of the year being revealed. Rate hikes are definitely over, and the market is just betting on how much longer the Fed's "Higher For Longer" will last. According to CME interest rate trading, the market is betting on five rate cuts (25bps each time) throughout the year 2024, starting from March.And over the past month, the long-term US Treasury bond yield quickly dropped from 5% to 4.2%, becoming the main driving force behind the performance of assets including US bonds, stock markets, gold, and cryptocurrencies. So, what might be the stance of the Federal Reserve at the December FOMC meeting?We anticipate:1. No further interest rate hikes, maintaining the current level of rates, in line with market expectations.2. An upwar

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ call option volume on Wednesday was the 2nd highest in history.Is this a sign of a major event looming in the future? Are investors seeking a safe haven in $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ ?Do you still holding some related tickers? The recent data shows an undeniable surge in trading volume for $TLT call options. This reflects market volatility and indicates a shift by investors towards fixed-income securities.This trend aligns with the recent policy shifts of central banks and underscores the importance of diversifying investment portfolios to cope with market fluctuations.Looking at the bigger picture, it appears to be a strategic response to the uncerta

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  $Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$  Upcoming events that may move the stock market December 2023: 12th: * ISM Manufacturing PMI: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November. This key economic indicator gauges the health of the manufacturing sector, and a significant deviation from expectations could affect the market. * Construction Spending: The U.S. Census Bureau will release its report on construction spending for October. This data provides insight into the health of the construction industry and can influence investor sentiment towards r

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ By presidential order we may not see a recession until after election. But that increasingly looks like either consumers start to hold off or interest rates will come down to increase odds of the soft landing story needed going into election. Government hiring, feeding the military war machine, and more free handouts to fossil fuel industry keeping gas pumps pumping and most people distracted from the looming storm clouds above. My guess is based on past cycles and present data that M2 sharp decline from present gentle fall will be the backup that insures recession is timed right for the insiders. Most people, being in the last car of the roller coaster will think it all is going up. jmho Disclaimer: Holdin

Replying to @DiAngel:Hard and not high.. 🤦‍♀️😓… not under the influence of alcohol 🍾🥂🍺🥃🍸🍹🍷 while writing this post 😂//@DiAngel:I not an option person. Thus, I will not sell put on TLT. Nobody has a crystal ball to determine when the rate cut will happen. Maybe the slogan “sell in may and go away, but remember come back in september” might come true. Ie rate cut in May. 😇🤭😂🙏 Anyway, it will happen eventually. Just be patient! 🧘‍♀️🧘‍♀️🧘‍♀️ I am working very high towards my SG dividends KPI then the rate cut. 🤫🫣🤭 Today Tbill is very disappointing 🥺😢😭

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ According to Stephanie Pomboy, and from today's payroll report, there was a record number of multiple job holders, and full-time employment dropped by 1.5 million. A drop that large has only happened twice, 1994 and COVID.Remember, the establishment survey double and triple counts part-time jobs. So while the headline number in the establishment survey was up 216,000, not counting October/November revisions of MINUS 71,000, the household survey registered a LOSS of 683,000.The Fed has even bigger problems in my view. She also noted that the BTFP has increased by more in the past 5 weeks than the prior 6 months. The program was supposed to have ended in March 2024. And it only provides a lifeline for underwa

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ in my opinion the points are the following:1. Inflation was worse than expected. If bond and stock prices are based on expectations, then they are too elevated. 2. A chart shows that inflation after falling is now stable ~ 4% and not falling. 3. Gas prices are now rising, maybe because of the middle east tensions, so no core numbers may be worse next month. 4. Shelter prices are stubbornly high and it will not come down.5. So are car insurance premiums. Please explain how the Fed can cut rates when inflation is almost twice the stated goal of 2% and the Fed rate is ~ 1.25% higher than inflation, and it has to be higher than inflation to decrease inflation.

I not an option person. Thus, I will not sell put on TLT. Nobody has a crystal ball to determine when the rate cut will happen. Maybe the slogan “sell in may and go away, but remember come back in september” might come true. Ie rate cut in May. 😇🤭😂🙏 Anyway, it will happen eventually. Just be patient! 🧘‍♀️🧘‍♀️🧘‍♀️ I am working very high towards my SG dividends KPI then the rate cut. 🤫🫣🤭 Today Tbill is very disappointing 🥺😢😭

Rates seem to be falling, yet TLT is declining. I know that's an oversimplification, so I'll get right to the point.1) Is the market expecting higher inflation?2) Have rates fallen too far too fast, so markets expect a reversal, and thus the decline in TLT?3) Are we inverting again, and the markets are anticipating longer dated bonds to correct in the relative near term, and thus the decline in TLT?4) Economic conditions on the ground are too whacky to make sense of, and thus TLT down on precaution?5) Some strange combination of these or something else?I'd like to position myself with some longer-dated options strategy for TLT. Just too confused to know what's best.Insights appreciated. $20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT)$