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Recent inflation data and Jerome Powell's acknowledgement that financial conditions have tightened (influenced by the rise in bond yields since their last meeting), supports the case for the continued Fed pause. This gives us a nice window of time to accumulate $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ In my opinion. Trade safe.

In the past two years, the rapid increase in benchmark interest rates has risen by 525 basis points, the fastest level since the 1980s. The more important question for investors to consider is whether the degree of Federal Reserve tightening is sufficient. By pushing up financing costs through policy interest rates, we can determine the degree of crowding out of incremental financing demand and erosion of stock interest costs. The purpose of monetary tightening is to suppress demand, mainly by raising policy interest rates to guide the overall financing costs of society to rise, thereby affecting new demand and stock costs: 1) financing costs are higher than investment returns, suppressing incremental financing demand; 2) stock interest pressure increases, squeezing out other consumption a

The increased market volatility that started two weeks ago is likely to intensify, with a large amount of data being released this week.On Wednesday, various data releases will begin: the ADP employment report, JOLTS, and ISM, followed by the Treasury bond auction at 1 pm Eastern Time, and then the FOMC interest rate decision.Since a no rate hike in November FOMC is already the consensus expectation in the market, the focus will be on Powell's press conference.Fed Tools at CMEDuring a special interview two weeks ago, Powell told investors not to think that the Fed's job is done even if there is no rate hike. It is expected that Powell will continue to convey this message in the statement and press conference.So far, economic data continues to support the Fed taking more or longer tightenin

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Ackman Waves the White Flag on Treasuries - Is it Time to Go Long? Just a few days ago, our man Bill Ackman sent shockwaves through Wall Street when he announced he was closing his short position on long-term US bonds. Why? Because he believes the high yields on these long term US treasury bonds are simply unsustainable. $10-YR T-NOTE - main 2312(ZNmain)$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$  Bill Ackman is no stranger to making bold moves, but this one's got us all talking. He's essentially saying, "I give up, the yields are too darn high." He might be onto something. When a legendary investor like Ackman throws in the towel on a bearish bet, it's time to pay attention. This isn't just

Billionaire investor Bill Ackman said he covered his short bet on US Treasuries, noting “there is too much risk in the world to remain short bonds at current long-term rates.”, reason being the economy is slowing faster than recent data suggests. Is this the time to buy treasuries? DYODD!

Buy this treasures as

Come to do this one and you happy 

Nice time to buy gold 

First and foremost, economic conditions play a crucial role. If I see signs of economic instability, such as high inflation, a slowing job market, or geopolitical tensions, I tend to lean towards being bullish on treasuries. These times are when investors flock to the safety of government bonds, which drives up their prices and lowers yields. On the other hand, when I observe a robust and growing economy with low inflation, I usually turn bearish on treasuries. In such scenarios, I might consider other investment opportunities that offer more attractive returns than the relatively lower yields of government bonds. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy also has a significant impact on my perspective. When I hear the Fed is implementing policies that suggest rising interest rates, I lean tow

Summary Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury Index Fund ETF has lost half its value since early 2020 due to rising inflation and a positive stock-bond correlation, as I expected then. EDV's losses have accelerated this year with the yield curve's abnormally steepening pattern. The rise in the long end of the yield curve and the potential for an inflationary recession are vital factors affecting EDV's performance. EDV is now pricing for 3-4% inflation over the next two decades, a reasonable assumption given debt issues and demographic trends. The ETF could rebound if long-term rates peak and decline, but runaway inflation risks, debt monetization, and geopolitical strains could cause further decline. William_Potter Over the past two and a half years, I have had a relatively consistent

Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman recently made headlines with his highly successful bet against US 30-year Treasury bonds, earning a substantial profit of approximately $200 million. The trade, which he announced in August, involved exiting the short position that had initially caused a surge in Treasury prices, subsequently leading to a decline in yields that had hit a 16-year high. Ackman’s decision to exit the position was driven by the perceived heightened risks in the current global economic climate, as well as indications that the economy was slowing at a faster pace than initially suggested by recent data. $WTI Crude Oil - main 2312(CLmain)$ $Gold -

$10-YR T-NOTE - main 2312(ZNmain)$ Buy the 20-year Treasury. Pick up over 3% in yield and get roll DOWN the curve as 10yr is below the 20yr. Yield Curve unchanged would get you roughly a 5.7% return. Can by Treasuries easily through most brokers or Treasury Direct. Definitely the trade for $100K or larger purchases.

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ I am reluctant to own directly a 20-yr bond. The national debt level will continue to be an ongoing and growing problem so selling on the secondary market could become money loosing experience. For this reason I would own directly and hold to maturity a 5-yr or maybe 10-yr note max.Many investors clearly would be better off buying longer-term Treasuries. But don't plan on huge gains, because I think rates are structurally higher for many years to come.I always give myself room to buy more lower.

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ I am a simple retail guy who thought it a good idea to start buying long bonds. TUA might be a nice fit for me as I am looking for tools to bet on the Fed dropping rates in the next 18 to 24 months. And I am netting they will drop at least 200 points.

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ Assuming TLT hits 80, what sized position do you take here? It feels like my 1-3% rule shouldn't factor in as it is not a single equity. I took a position in commodities some time back through GSCI and was comfortable at around 6%. Bonds have had a very low % in my portfolio (other than very short or money markets which currently hold around half my money as a cash alternative). The traditional 60/40 I am not comfortable with.....

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ Ackman seems to time his macro calls very well. And he has done this couple of times and with a large bet so it can't be dismissed as luck. Further since it's a macro call hard to suggest he had any insider information or was manipulating anything.That is something very interesting. Most managers can't get the timings of their macro calls right, even if their general direction is right.

Good news for long term bond holder.

The increased market volatility that started two weeks ago is likely to intensify, with a large amount of data being released this week.On Wednesday, various data releases will begin: the ADP employment report, JOLTS, and ISM, followed by the Treasury bond auction at 1 pm Eastern Time, and then the FOMC interest rate decision.Since a no rate hike in November FOMC is already the consensus expectation in the market, the focus will be on Powell's press conference.Fed Tools at CMEDuring a special interview two weeks ago, Powell told investors not to think that the Fed's job is done even if there is no rate hike. It is expected that Powell will continue to convey this message in the statement and press conference.So far, economic data continues to support the Fed taking more or longer tightenin

After a brief retracement, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged again last week, briefly above 5.0% during intraday trading. This marked the first time since 2007 that it reached this psychologically significant level. There’s also some anomalies, such as the market's expectations for a rate hike in November not increasing but instead decreasing, and gold surging.Why Yield Surging?The recent increase in interest rates since July has four distinct features different from the past: real interest rate contributions, dominant term premiums, a steepening yield curve, and simultaneous strengthening of US bonds and the US dollar.This indicates that the driving force behind the rise in interest rates is increased economic resilience and increased bond supply (backed by fiscal expansion), rather

$Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ and $Microsoft(MSFT)$ released their financial reports simultaneously, once again directly comparing their performance. Unlike in Q2, this time Microsoft saw a significant increase led by its cloud business, while Google experienced a 5% drop due to its cloud business falling short of expectations despite advertising exceeding expectations. However, we believe that the market's interpretation of Google is overly pessimistic.Summary1. Expectations for Google's advertising business were already factored in before the Q3 financial report, making up for the overly pessimistic expectations in the first half of the year. Despite high

The two-year Treasury yield $2-YR T-NOTE - main 2312(ZTmain)$ , which moves with interest rates expectations, rose 0.09 percentage points to 5.20%, its highest level since 2006. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield $10-YR T-NOTE - main 2312(ZNmain)$ is also at a high this year, exceeding 4.8%.Why do U.S. bond yields $2-YR T-NOTE - main 2312(ZTmain)$ continue to rise? What impact will it have on the U.S. economy and the prices of financial assets such as the $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ , $WTI Crude O

We have seen 10-years Treasury yields reaching more 16- and 17-year highs on 18 Oct (Wednesday) as investors focused on the U.S. economy's resiliency. U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield rose to 4.99% on 19 Oct (Thursday) from 4.902% (Wednesday). This created a new highest close since July 25, 2007. Briefly hitting above 5% earlier. What has helped Treasury Yield to rose much There have been economic data released this week which has suggest that U.S. economic strength is in focus. On Tuesday (17 Oct) we saw a strong U.S. September retail sales report which show that U.S. economy remain resilient. We also saw Q3 GDP estimate being adjusted from 4.5% to 4.9% by Morgan Stanley. On Wednesday (18 Oct), housing data show that it start to rebound 7% in September to an annual pace of 1.36 million

Summary Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury Index Fund ETF has lost half its value since early 2020 due to rising inflation and a positive stock-bond correlation, as I expected then. EDV's losses have accelerated this year with the yield curve's abnormally steepening pattern. The rise in the long end of the yield curve and the potential for an inflationary recession are vital factors affecting EDV's performance. EDV is now pricing for 3-4% inflation over the next two decades, a reasonable assumption given debt issues and demographic trends. The ETF could rebound if long-term rates peak and decline, but runaway inflation risks, debt monetization, and geopolitical strains could cause further decline. William_Potter Over the past two and a half years, I have had a relatively consistent

In the past two years, the rapid increase in benchmark interest rates has risen by 525 basis points, the fastest level since the 1980s. The more important question for investors to consider is whether the degree of Federal Reserve tightening is sufficient. By pushing up financing costs through policy interest rates, we can determine the degree of crowding out of incremental financing demand and erosion of stock interest costs. The purpose of monetary tightening is to suppress demand, mainly by raising policy interest rates to guide the overall financing costs of society to rise, thereby affecting new demand and stock costs: 1) financing costs are higher than investment returns, suppressing incremental financing demand; 2) stock interest pressure increases, squeezing out other consumption a

Bill Ackman, who short on long-term US bonds, tweeted on October 23 that he had closed his position, for the current economic slowdown was more severe than the current data suggested, and the high yield of long-term US Treasury bonds was unsustainable. $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ Why are long-term US bond yields rising?US bond yields and bond prices are inversely proportional, and secondary market supply and demand can also affect yields through prices;Long-term US bond yields reflect expectations for future economic growth, while short-term yields are a direct reflection of market interest rates.As we have previously analyzed, the continuous rise in US bond yields is a comprehensive result of "economic growth" and "increased supply".

The 10-year Treasury yield has long been regarded as a crucial indicator of market sentiment, reflecting the broader economic landscape and often serving as a barometer for investor confidence. Its intricate relationship with the stock market has garnered significant attention, with fluctuations in the yield frequently influencing investment decisions and market dynamics. To gain a comprehensive understanding of the recent trends and projections associated with the 10-year Treasury yield, it is imperative to delve into its historical context and examine its impact on the stock market performance. Correlation Between 10-Year Treasury Yield and Stock Market Performance: A Historical Analysis Over the years, the 10-year Treasury yield has exhibited a dynamic correlation with the performance o

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose to a 16-year high, crossing 5% for the first time since July 20, 2007, reaching as high as 5.029%.Why do US treatury yields continue to hit new high?1) Powell speech reiterates the Fed's goal of bringing inflation down to 2%.My colleagues and I are committed to achieving a stance of policy that is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation sustainably down to 2% over time.2) The latest auction of 30-year Treasury bonds revealed poor investor demand. The disparity between supply and demand triggers market concerns.3) The US federal deficit of $1.7 trillion for the 2023 fy led to increased interest costs for the government.Will the market dip further with higher US treasury yields?Will 2023 repeat what happened in 2007, 1987 and 1929?r/wallstreetbet

Starting from early September, long-term government bonds represented by 10-year U.S. Treasuries have rapidly increased. On October 3rd, the yield on the 10-year government bond surpassed 4.81%, and the 10-year TIPS yield exceeded 2.45%, marking new highs since 2007 and 2008, respectively. This has had a global impact, with pressure on U.S. stocks and other emerging markets, and a significant drop in the price of gold. As October began, U.S. bond yields started to retreat, and the U.S. stock market saw some degree of rebound.With the recent surge of the "anchor of global asset pricing," an increasing number of senior Federal Reserve officials believe that the sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields, tightening financial conditions, can substitute for further increases in the benchmark interest

Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman recently made headlines with his highly successful bet against US 30-year Treasury bonds, earning a substantial profit of approximately $200 million. The trade, which he announced in August, involved exiting the short position that had initially caused a surge in Treasury prices, subsequently leading to a decline in yields that had hit a 16-year high. Ackman’s decision to exit the position was driven by the perceived heightened risks in the current global economic climate, as well as indications that the economy was slowing at a faster pace than initially suggested by recent data. $WTI Crude Oil - main 2312(CLmain)$ $Gold -

Stock market experiencing choppy water The recent conflict in Gaza has raised concerns about its potential impact on the global stock market. Geopolitical events, like this crisis, can lead to increased market volatility.$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$  VIX Daily Chart rising up Stock markets tend to react to geopolitical tensions with increased volatility. During times of uncertainty, investors may become more risk-averse, leading to fluctuations in stock prices. We've seen this pattern in the past with conflicts in various regions. Crude Oil Futures rising steadily The Middle East is a significant oil-producing region. Any escalation of conflict in this area can affect oil prices$WTI Crude Oil - main 2

Major stock indexes slipped on Tuesday as investors analyzed the latest moves in corporate earnings and Treasury yields. Continued strength in bond yields has weighed on sentiment recently, while a fairly solid start to third-quarter earnings season has provided some support. The S&P 500 index fell 0.2% on the day, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also edged 0.2% lower. The pullback in stocks comes after a bounce to begin October, with the S&P 500 still clinging to a 0.5% gain over the past week. However, trading ranges have tightened up recently. According to Bespoke Investment Group, the S&P 500’s intraday high has been confined to a band of less than 0.2% over the last five sessions. Surging Bond Yields Sparking E

A high-interest rate environment, like the 5% you mentioned, can have significant adverse effects on financial markets, especially impacting banks and insurance companies that hold government bonds with lower yields and longer maturities, such as those with a 20-year term at 2.5% interest. Here's a concise analysis of this situation.  Firstly, when interest rates rise, the value of existing bonds falls. This is because new bonds issued at higher rates are more attractive to investors than older bonds with lower fixed yields. Banks and insurance companies often hold a substantial amount of government bonds in their portfolios. As market interest rates increase, the market value of their existing bond holdings decreases, leading to potential capital losses. Secondly, banks rely on a s

Market Recap | 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Tops 4.9% Long-term bond yields hit a fresh 16-year high Wednesday, weighing on stocks already pressured by the conflict in Gaza and corporate earnings results. The $U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield(US10Y.BD)$ rose to 4.902%, the highest closing level since July 2007. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$  fell 1.3%. The $DJIA(.DJI)$ shed 332.57 points, or 1%. The $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ lost 1.6%. A swift climb in bond yields has dented enthusiasm for stocks in recent weeks. Investors are also monitoring the intensifying Israel-Hamas war that

During the earnings season for big companies, the impact of the financial reports is not limited to just the day of the release. The market may continue to react to the reports for several trading days afterwards. For example, after $Netflix(NFLX)$ reported a significant increase of 15%, its stock continued to rise by an additional 2%. while $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ faced pessimistic expectations and saw a major drop of 9% after its financial report, followed by another 4% decrease. Currently, Tesla's stock is at a level that marks its first rebound since the beginning of the year, and there is significant speculation between the price range of 200-230From the perspective of options activity, the trading in t

Bond Yields Hit Fresh Highs After Hot Retail Sales Data U.S. government bond yields hit fresh decade-plus highs Tuesday after another hot economic-data release fueled concerns that interest rates could remain elevated for longer. The latest retail-sales report showed spending online, at stores and in restaurants rose a stronger-than-expected 0.7% in September from a month earlier. Treasury yields jumped afterward, with the benchmark 10-year bond yield rising to 4.846%, up from 4.709% Monday. It was the highest closing level since July 2007. Stocks wavered between gains and losses before closing little changed. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$  fell less than one-tenth of a percent, while the 

Cleveland Fed Bank President Loretta Mester said on Friday that oil prices are 7 The rise since the month will put the price of core objects and gasoline at a high level, making consumers feel that inflation will heat up again, so she believes that inflation in the United States is still facing higher.   She is expected to raise interest rates again this year, "from what she sees from the economic environment, prospects and risks she sees, it is consistent with the Fed's touch reading expectations Leading to upheaval in the market $Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$ $Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$ $Semi

The biggest bond ETF continued to crater Thursday amid an incessant Treasury sell-off. $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ , which tracks an index of Treasurys with maturities of 20 years and more, touched the lowest level since July 2007, currently down 1.4% for the day and 15.5% this year.The U.S Treasury building in Washington./REUTERSA slowdown in the U.S. economy over the remainder of the year due to higher oil prices and the resumption of student loan payments will likely pull benchmark 10-year Treasury yields lower, making call options on the $iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF(IEF)$ attractive , Goldman Sachs strategists wrote in a note Thursday.Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices