To The Moon

My investing muse - layoffs, recession and AI Layoffs continue into the last week. Nike on Thursday said it will cut about 2% of its total workforce, or more than 1,600 jobs, as the sportswear giant looks to cut costs after flagging weaker profits this year. - CNBC Israeli fintech company Riskified is laying off over 40 of its 750 employees, accounting for about 6% of its total workforce. - Calcalistech Paramount Global announced Tuesday it is laying off about 800 employees, or roughly 3% of its workforce.Paramount Global, which owns CBS, said Monday that the network set record highs for Super Bowl viewership. - CNBC Silicon Valley tech giant Cisco is getting ready to lay off thousands of employees in its latest reorganization effort to focus on high-growth areas, Reuters reports. C

Market Outlook - 19 Feb 2024 Technical observations of the S&P500 1D chart: The Stochastic indicator is on an uptrend. The MACD indicator is showing a downtrend having completed another top crossover. Moving Averages (MA). Both the MA50 line and the MA200 line are on an uptrend. The last candle is above both the MA 50 line and the MA 200 line. Thus, it could be read as bullish for the long-term and mid-term. Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). The 3 EMA lines are moving in a fanned-out pattern, thus implying an uptrend. From the 1D technical indicators above, there are a total of 22 (Buy), 1 (Sell) and 0 (Neutral). Investing recommends the “STRONG BUY” recommendation based on the technical indicators above (1D chart for S&P500). From the data above, the market should see an up

Public Holidays United States will be closed on 19 Feb 2024 (Monday) for Washington’s birthday. No holidays for Singapore, China and Hong Kong as they return from the Chinese New Year festivities. Economic Calendar (19 Feb 2024) Notable Highlights FOMC meeting minutes. This is a closely watched announcement as the FOMC will shed more insights on the coming interest rate cuts. S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI. This data presents the outlook of Global US manufacturing. A figure above 50 represents expansion or growth. S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI. This data reviews the growth or contraction of Global services provided by US businesses. Initial Jobless Claims - This reflects the impact of unemployment, a data point for the Fed’s interest rate decision. The une

Public Holidays United States will be closed on 19 Feb 2024 (Monday) for Washington’s birthday. No holidays for Singapore, China and Hong Kong as they return from the Chinese New Year festivities. Economic Calendar (19 Feb 2024) Notable Highlights FOMC meeting minutes. This is a closely watched announcement as the FOMC will shed more insights on the coming interest rate cuts. S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI. This data presents the outlook of Global US manufacturing. A figure above 50 represents expansion or growth. S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI. This data reviews the growth or contraction of Global services provided by US businesses. Initial Jobless Claims - This reflects the impact of unemployment, a data point for the Fed’s interest rate decision. The unemployment rate will

1st Rally: The S&P 500 rallied 20.16% from October 2022 to February 2023, and subsequently retraced to the 50% Fibonacci level. 2nd Rally: The S&P 500 rallied 20.96% from March 2022 to July 2023, and subsequently retraced to the 61.8% Fibonacci level. 3rd Rally: We may have seen the peak of the 3rd rally when the S&P 500 rallied 23% from October 2023 to February 2024. If history repeats itself, we may see the S&P 500 retracing to the 50% or 61.8% Fibonacci level, at 4,576 or 4,464 respectively.   There may be a short-term correction of up to 11% based on technical analysis. Fundamentally, renewed concerns about inflation and delays in rate cuts may have put an end to the market rally. Additionally, the S&P 500 tends to experience a sell-off in February to March bas

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Last Week's RecapThe US Market - The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ @ 5KThe $S&P 500(.SPX)$ ’s more than 1% gain for the week pushed the index above the 5,000-point threshold for the first time and marked its 14th positive result out of the past 15 weeks. The $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ added more than 2%  while the $DJIA(.DJI)$ posted a fractional gain. Strong earnings results from selected technology companies fueled another week of equity market.The U.S. small-cap stocks $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ posted a 2.5% gain for the week, but that positive result came on the heels of a sh

no as february rank is one of the worst 

Yes will move more than that

Market Outlook - 12 Feb 2024 Technical observations of the S&P500 1D chart: The Stochastic indicator is on an uptrend. The MACD indicator is showing an uptrend. Moving Averages (MA). Both the MA50 line and the MA200 line are on an uptrend. The last candle is above both the MA 50 line and the MA 200 line. Thus, it could be read as bullish for the long-term and mid-term. Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). The 3 EMA lines are moving in a fanned-out pattern, thus implying an uptrend. From the 1D technical indicators above, there are a total of 20 (Buy), 0 (Sell) and 0 (Neutral). Investing recommends the “STRONG BUY” recommendation based on the technical indicators above (1D chart for S&P500). From the data above, the market should have an uptrend in the coming days. Let us keep an

Public Holidays There are no public holidays in the USA for the coming week. Hong Kong will be closed for the Chinese Lunar New Year (CNY) from 10 to 13 Feb 2024. China will be closed for the Chinese Lunar New Year (CNY) from 9 to 15 Feb 2024. Singapore will be closed for the Chinese Lunar New Year (CNY) from 10 to 12 Feb 2024. Here is wishing all a blessed Chinese New Year. Economic Calendar (12 Feb 2024) Notable Highlights The Chinese-speaking world should be closed as they celebrate the Chinese Lunar New Year. Celebrations start on 09 Feb 2024 for Chinese-speaking nations like China, Hong Kong & Singapore. CPI. This should be the most watched macro data for the coming week. This is likely to move the market though the Core CPI is likely to be the same as the previous month. Thou

Public Holidays There are no public holidays in the USA for the coming week. Hong Kong will be closed for the Chinese Lunar New Year (CNY) from 10 to 13 Feb 2024. China will be closed for the Chinese Lunar New Year (CNY) from 9 to 15 Feb 2024. Singapore will be closed for the Chinese Lunar New Year (CNY) from 10 to 12 Feb 2024. Here is wishing all a blessed Chinese New Year. Economic Calendar (12 Feb 2024) Notable Highlights The Chinese-speaking world should be closed as they celebrate the Chinese Lunar New Year. Celebrations start on 09 Feb 2024 for Chinese-speaking nations like China, Hong Kong & Singapore. CPI. This should be the most watched macro data for the coming week. This is likely to move the market though the Core CPI is likely to be the same as the previous month. Thou

$Occidental(OXY)$  Occidental Petroleum (OXY) requires careful consideration of the inherent risks alongside any potential rewards. While the company might offer attractive aspects like high dividends and a value proposition, several significant factors could negatively impact its performance: Volatile Oil Prices: The oil and gas industry is highly susceptible to price fluctuations. Recent highs might not be sustainable, and any significant dip could severely impact OXY's profits and stock price. External factors like global economic conditions, geopolitical tensions, and alternative energy advancements can all contribute to unpredictable price swings. Geopolitical Instability: OXY operates in regions susceptible to

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Last Week's RecapThe US Market - The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ @ 5KThe $S&P 500(.SPX)$ ’s more than 1% gain for the week pushed the index above the 5,000-point threshold for the first time and marked its 14th positive result out of the past 15 weeks. The $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ added more than 2%  while the $DJIA(.DJI)$ posted a fractional gain. Strong earnings results from selected technology companies fueled another week of equity market.The U.S. small-cap stocks $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ posted a 2.5% gain for the week, but that positive result came on the heels of a sh

Public Holidays There are no public holidays in the USA for the coming week. Hong Kong will be closed for the Chinese Lunar New Year (CNY) from 10 to 13 Feb 2024. China will be closed for the Chinese Lunar New Year (CNY) from 9 to 15 Feb 2024. Singapore will be closed for the Chinese Lunar New Year (CNY) from 10 to 12 Feb 2024. Here is wishing all a blessed Chinese New Year. Economic Calendar (12 Feb 2024) Notable Highlights The Chinese-speaking world should be closed as they celebrate the Chinese Lunar New Year. Celebrations start on 09 Feb 2024 for Chinese-speaking nations like China, Hong Kong & Singapore. CPI. This should be the most watched macro data for the coming week. This is likely to move the market though the Core CPI is likely to be the same as the previous month. Thou

Public Holidays United States will be closed on 19 Feb 2024 (Monday) for Washington’s birthday. No holidays for Singapore, China and Hong Kong as they return from the Chinese New Year festivities. Economic Calendar (19 Feb 2024) Notable Highlights FOMC meeting minutes. This is a closely watched announcement as the FOMC will shed more insights on the coming interest rate cuts. S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI. This data presents the outlook of Global US manufacturing. A figure above 50 represents expansion or growth. S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI. This data reviews the growth or contraction of Global services provided by US businesses. Initial Jobless Claims - This reflects the impact of unemployment, a data point for the Fed’s interest rate decision. The unemployment rate will

Public Holidays There are no public holidays in the USA for the coming week. Hong Kong will be closed for the Chinese Lunar New Year (CNY) from 10 to 13 Feb 2024. China will be closed for the Chinese Lunar New Year (CNY) from 9 to 15 Feb 2024. Singapore will be closed for the Chinese Lunar New Year (CNY) from 10 to 12 Feb 2024. Here is wishing all a blessed Chinese New Year. Economic Calendar (12 Feb 2024) Notable Highlights The Chinese-speaking world should be closed as they celebrate the Chinese Lunar New Year. Celebrations start on 09 Feb 2024 for Chinese-speaking nations like China, Hong Kong & Singapore. CPI. This should be the most watched macro data for the coming week. This is likely to move the market though the Core CPI is likely to be the same as the previous month. Thou

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Gold - main 2404(GCmain)$ $WTI Crude Oil - main 2403(CLmain)$ Equity IndicesYTD ReturnDow Jones1.2%S&P5001.6%NASDAQ1.0%MSCI – Europe2.6%MSCI–Emerging-3.1%Bonds 2yr Treasury4.31%10yr Treasury3.95%10yr Municipal2.46%U.S. Corporate5.11%Commodities Gold$2041.48/ozSilver$22.89/ozCrude Oil (WTI)$76.36/bblNatural Gas$2.26/MMBtuCurrencies CAD/USD$0.74GBP/USD$1.27USD/JPY¥146.74EUR/USD$1.08OverviewThe S&P500 topped 4,900, with gains continuing to be dominated by the top 7 mega-cap stocks. With indices at all

My investing muse - layoffs, top companies, recession and population crisis Layoff news continued last week. Swiss wealth manager Julius Baer reported a net credit loss of $701 million related to troubled property group Signa Holdings.CEO Philipp Rickenbacher said he would step down. The bank also said it would cut 250 jobs this year. - CNBC One day after digital news start-up The Messenger was shuttered and 270 employees were laid off, now-former staffers filed a class-action lawsuit against their former employer on the grounds that they were not given proper notice. - Yahoo News Identity management company Okta (OKTA) is laying off seven percent of its workforce as part of a broader restructuring effort. The job cuts are expected to combat costs of up to $24 million in restructuring cha

My investing muse - layoffs, recession and AI Layoffs continue into the last week. Nike on Thursday said it will cut about 2% of its total workforce, or more than 1,600 jobs, as the sportswear giant looks to cut costs after flagging weaker profits this year. - CNBC Israeli fintech company Riskified is laying off over 40 of its 750 employees, accounting for about 6% of its total workforce. - Calcalistech Paramount Global announced Tuesday it is laying off about 800 employees, or roughly 3% of its workforce.Paramount Global, which owns CBS, said Monday that the network set record highs for Super Bowl viewership. - CNBC Silicon Valley tech giant Cisco is getting ready to lay off thousands of employees in its latest reorganization effort to focus on high-growth areas, Reuters reports. C

Thanks to Tiger for award the weekly top predictions SPY & QQQ last week again! Can we see another week of record breaking streak in an uncertain February, a month that has been considered the second worst performing month in a year? 🤔 The U.S. stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index SPX, stumbled into the end of January. On the positive side, since January registered a gain, that is a longer-term positive under the "January Barometer" philosophy (as goes January, so goes the year). On the other hand, this market is in need of a rest, especially from the positive earnings from META and MSFT (M&M) late last week. There could be some legs left to run but be aware that February has been a down month in many years - sometimes very harshly as indicated: Pullback is im

The S&P 500 index reached the significant threshold of 5,000 points just moments before the close of trading on Thursday, Feb. 8, extending its run to new all-time highs. US equities fluctuated on Thursday, with the index briefly hitting 5,000 before closing just below the level in a rally driven by a narrow group. ⚠️ Trading tips: looking at SPY calls from dip buy to breach 500 on Friday following the footsteps of SPX a day before. Avoid swing trades over the weekend and enjoy the reunion dinner with family. Have a prosperous, joyous & awesome Lunar New Year ahead everyone! 🧧 SPY to breach 500 next Only a month into the new year, the S&P 500 (SP500) is up 4.7%, which is more than halfway towards the 9% average annual return seen over the past two decades. Some FOMO

The January FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate, as expected. Powell's wording indicated that almost all committee members believe that a rate cut is appropriate this year, but they do not see a rate cut in March as likely. The decision to cut rates depends on the economic situation. The implication is that the Fed does not want to raise market expectations too soon, so it actively dampened expectations for a rate cut in March. However, there is a wide range of views within the Fed's committee on the rate cut.Previously, the market implied a 50% probability of a rate cut in March and six rate cuts throughout the year. After the meeting, the implied probability of a rate cut in March decreased to 35%.Rate cut no longer a bullish factor?Looking ahead, e

The Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) The Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) was created to support American businesses and households by making additional funding available to eligible depository institutions to help assure banks have the ability to meet the needs of all their depositors. The BTFP offers loans of up to one year in length to banks, savings associations, credit unions, and other eligible depository institutions pledging any collateral eligible for purchase by the Federal Reserve Banks in open market operations (see 12 CFR 201.108(b)), such as U.S. Treasuries, U.S. agency securities, and U.S. agency mortgage-backed securities. These assets will be valued at par. The BTFP is an additional source of liquidity against high-quality securities, eliminating an institution’s need to

News and my thoughts from the last week (05 Feb 2024) - BYD, Red Sea & CRE Three US Army soldiers were killed and more than 30 service members were injured in a drone attack overnight on a small US outpost in Jordan - CNN More bombs are not the answer to bombs. Don't feed the black Swan. Nearly one-third (32%) of respondents are worried their business will not survive through the end of the year and 38% saying they are more concerned about their company heading into this year than last. - Fox Business BYD's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between RMB 29 billion ($4 billion) and RMB 31 billion in 2023, up 74.46 percent to 86.49 percent year-on-year, according to its earnings preview released today. The right and timely response following good or bad news is

Affected by the lower-than-expected guidance in $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ financial report and the market's dampened expectations for a rate cut in March, tech stocks continued to fall.Among them, $Apple(AAPL)$ has fallen for six consecutive days, $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ dropped by 2.48%, $Alphabet(GOOG)$ financial report fell short of expectations, leading to a 7% decline, and even Microsoft, which exceeded expectations in its financial report, also dropped by 2.69%.What triggered tech fall?Is rate cut still possible in March?The Fed will only cut rates when "it has gained greater confidence" that inflation will

The Federal Reserve's policy committee opted to maintain interest rates at their current levels during yesterday's session, in line with expectations. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously decided to keep the target range for the federal-funds rate at 5.25%-5.50%. Federal Funds Effective Rate FF rate Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks following the decision suggested a cautious approach to potential rate cuts, acknowledging the need for more evidence of inflation moderation before considering a shift in monetary policy. DJIA: -0.82% to 38,150.30 - S&P 500: -1.61% to 4,845.65 - Nasdaq: -2.23% to 15,164.01 Market Scenario Market reactions to the FOMC decision were notable, with stocks and bonds experiencing declines. The

$Occidental(OXY)$  Occidental Petroleum (OXY) requires careful consideration of the inherent risks alongside any potential rewards. While the company might offer attractive aspects like high dividends and a value proposition, several significant factors could negatively impact its performance: Volatile Oil Prices: The oil and gas industry is highly susceptible to price fluctuations. Recent highs might not be sustainable, and any significant dip could severely impact OXY's profits and stock price. External factors like global economic conditions, geopolitical tensions, and alternative energy advancements can all contribute to unpredictable price swings. Geopolitical Instability: OXY operates in regions susceptible to

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  The S&P 500 slid 1.6% in its worst day since September. The Nasdaq Composite lost 2.2%, its worst session since October. Those losses come after Powell in his post-meeting conference discouraged investor hopes for a rate cut as soon as March, sending equities tumbling. ⚠️ Trading tips: looking at SPY calls above 486.2 and puts under 482.7 on Thursday after jobs data and ISM numbers at 8:30am and 10am respectively. Expecting a chop day as market awaits earnings from AAPL, META & AMZN after hours. Oversold but low can go lower 😉 The Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that interest rates will remain unchanged, meeting market expectations and signaling a pause in policy tightening. Yet

What Happened last night? S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 plunged 1.6% and 1.9%, respectively, last night following a surprisingly hawkish FOMC statement. The most hawkish remark by Powell is, 'I don’t think it’s likely that the committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting to identify that March is the time to do that.' Fed funds futures are now indicating a 38% chance of a cut in March, down from odds of 62%. Source: Bloomberg, 31 Jan 2024 Why I Think a March Rate Cut Is Still on the Table? The U.S. economy is slowing, which could lead to a decrease in inflation. The U.S. Conference Board predicts a +1.2% GDP growth in 2024, down from an estimate of 2.5% in 2023. The Fed may only provide a clearer statement about a March rate cut when Chairman Jerome Powell

Since the $New York Community(NYCB)$ isclosed its financial report last week, showing a loss in Q4, the withdrawal of $552 million in loan loss reserves, and a reduction in dividends, its stock price has plummeted by 60%. Investors are worried that it may become the second $SVB Financial Group(SIVBQ)$ . However, the risk in commercial real estate is still manageable.On January 31, the company announced a $100 billion asset threshold, which increased costs, and incurred expenses related to two potential problem loans, causing the stock price to drop by 37% on that day.Prior to this, the bank had discussions with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) before conducting impairments and reducing

Market Outlook - 19 Feb 2024 Technical observations of the S&P500 1D chart: The Stochastic indicator is on an uptrend. The MACD indicator is showing a downtrend having completed another top crossover. Moving Averages (MA). Both the MA50 line and the MA200 line are on an uptrend. The last candle is above both the MA 50 line and the MA 200 line. Thus, it could be read as bullish for the long-term and mid-term. Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). The 3 EMA lines are moving in a fanned-out pattern, thus implying an uptrend. From the 1D technical indicators above, there are a total of 22 (Buy), 1 (Sell) and 0 (Neutral). Investing recommends the “STRONG BUY” recommendation based on the technical indicators above (1D chart for S&P500). From the data above, the market should see an up

1st Rally: The S&P 500 rallied 20.16% from October 2022 to February 2023, and subsequently retraced to the 50% Fibonacci level. 2nd Rally: The S&P 500 rallied 20.96% from March 2022 to July 2023, and subsequently retraced to the 61.8% Fibonacci level. 3rd Rally: We may have seen the peak of the 3rd rally when the S&P 500 rallied 23% from October 2023 to February 2024. If history repeats itself, we may see the S&P 500 retracing to the 50% or 61.8% Fibonacci level, at 4,576 or 4,464 respectively.   There may be a short-term correction of up to 11% based on technical analysis. Fundamentally, renewed concerns about inflation and delays in rate cuts may have put an end to the market rally. Additionally, the S&P 500 tends to experience a sell-off in February to March bas