My investing muse (01Jul24) - layoffs, stock allocation, banks stress test
My Investing Muse (01Jul24) Layoffs & Closure news KPMG to cut further 200 UK jobs amid market slowdown - FT 60% of U.S business is likely to have layoffs in the second half of 2024, according to a new ResumeTemplates survey of 934 business leaders. And of this number, nearly half anticipate reducing 30% or more of their total headcount. - Forbes "The world and the industry are rapidly changing around us. After careful consideration, Melt Bar and Grilled has decided to file Chapter 11 bankruptcy. This gives us the best opportunity to reorganize and rebuild the company." - The Street Image Layoff & closure news continued into the week. US household stock allocation This is taken from X user The Kobeissi Letter’s recent post: Image US households' stock allocation as a percentage of f
Demand for Electricity (from Google Gemini) The demand for electricity in America for the next 5 years is expected to rise, but there are different estimates depending on the source: Moderate Growth: The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts a moderate increase in electricity consumption. They predict a 3% rise in 2024 and a 2% increase in 2025. This growth is attributed to factors like:Warmer weather leads to more air conditioning use.Expansion of data centres, which are major electricity consumers. Faster Growth: Grid Strategies, a consulting firm, presents a more upbeat outlook. Their report suggests a 4.7% increase in nationwide electricity demand over the next five years. This higher estimate considers:Growth in new manufacturing and industry.The significant rise in d
It's the second week showing signs of reversals - Bottoming is an event while tops are a process, is this the case?Last week the shooting star was for $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ , this week was muted for $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and NDX; and several technical indicators are showing higher than usual temperature.How will those signals coexist with July seasonality?Technicals are overheated, and price action ended muted the weekDuring the last month, $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ and $DJIA(.DJI)$ moved down in consistency with bearish reversal charts analyzed in this newsletter. During the same period SPX and NDX continued moving up, mo
In my latest weekly report I highlighted how the US dollar is currently well-progressed into a compression trade — making higher lows, lower highs, coiling into a tightening range and with a crunch in FX market implied volatility to multi-year lows.This is one of those calm-before-the-storm moments for the US Dollar.But one thing a compression trade does not tell you in and of itself is what direction it resolves in… and by the way, compression trades usually resolve explosively with a big move and usually see a major trend change.That brings us to this week’s chart — FX market valuations.The chart below shows my composite valuation indicators for Frontier, Emerging, and Developed market currencies (all vs the US Dollar). On all 3 counts, they are showing up as cheap vs USD… or put differe
$RSP has performed worse than the $SPX by the widest margin
The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index $Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF(RSP)$ has performed worse than the S&P 500 Market Weight Index $S&P 500(.SPX)$ by the widest margin in at least 34 years during the first half of the year.Factors that contributed to such underperformance.1. Sector Composition: The Equal Weighted S&P 500 gives equal weight to all companies in the index, which may result in overrepresentation of sectors that are not performing well compared to the Market Weighted #SP500, where companies are weighted based on market capitalization.2. Stock Selection: The stock selection process in the Equal Weighted S&P 500 may have included companies that did not perform as well as the
July 1st is historically one of the best bullish days of the year...and July is supposed go be positive for stocks, so what do I do with two conflicting data sets?Good point about the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ analysis.That’s correct, not only July 1st but July as a month is statistically bullish.The answer: risk management, many technicals are overheated, April was statistically bullish and it moved to the red side.Not a market to short, but a market to manage risk given the recent overextension.They were part of leveraged longs bought at the end of Oct 2023 when I posted the bottom.If I miss +2% upside before September (high possibility of a decline) those longs did already 3 percent figures.https://x.com/SmartReversals/status/1807016739680723320
When it comes to stock trading, the debate over whether talent or skill is more important is a hot one. Some people believe that you're either born with a knack for it or not, while others believe that anyone can learn to be a successful trader with hard work and dedication. So, which is it? Does talent or skill play a bigger role in stock trading success? The Role of Talent There's no doubt that some people seem to have a natural aptitude for trading. They have an intuitive understanding of the market and can make quick decisions that often turn out to be profitable. These individuals may know how to read charts, identify patterns, and understand market psychology. However, it's important to note that even the most talented traders need to develop their skills to be successful. Talent can
Overview: Following the Federal Reserve's successful stress tests earlier this week, major U.S. banks announced dividend increases on Friday. Institutions like JPMorgan Chase $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ , Goldman Sachs$Goldman Sachs(GS)$ , and Bank of America $Bank of America(BAC)$ are among those hiking their payouts, reflecting their confidence in withstanding economic downturns. This move, alongside robust capital retention, signals a positive outlook for the banking sector despite looming regulatory challenges and economic uncertainties. Banking Sector Dividends and Buybacks: After the Fed'
SOXQ Invesco Semiconductor ETF - My Tactical Bet on the Future of AI
🌟🌟🌟Artificial Intelligence or AI is one of the hottest themes in the markets and Semiconductors are essential to AI since they are used to run AI systems. Introducing $Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF(SOXQ)$ , an ETF that provides instant access to 30 of the largest US listed companies involved in the design, distribution, manufacturing and sale of semiconductors. This ETF also includes foreign companies with ADR listings. SOXQ tracks the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index. This ETF and Index are reconstituted annually in September and rebalanced quarterly in March, June, September and December. The Top 10 holdings include $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$
Halfway Mark: How to Strategize for the Second Half
Overview: The U.S. stock market concluded June with gains across all three major indices. The Nasdaq Composite $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ and the S&P 500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose by 6.0% and 3.5%, respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average $DJIA(.DJI)$ increased by 1.1%. The first half of 2024 saw the Nasdaq surge ahead, driven by the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, posting a remarkable 18.1% gain. The S&P 500 followed with a 14.6% increase, whereas the Dow lagged, only rising 3.8%, partly due to an unusual second-quarter pullback
Singapore REITs: Time for a Shakeup? | The Investing Iguana 🦖
🟩 Are Singapore REITs due for a shakeup? Join Iggy from The Investing Iguana as he dives deep into the world of S-REITs, examining the challenges they face and the reforms that could revitalize this crucial sector. In this insightful video, we'll explore: -The impact of high interest rates and work-from-home trends on S-REITs -Governance issues and the power imbalance between sponsors and unitholders -The landmark case of Sabana Industrial REIT and its implications -Potential reforms to level the playing field and boost investor confidence -The relative resilience of S-REITs compared to their global peers -Opportunities for yield-hungry investors as the market evolves As an experienced financial analyst, Iggy breaks down complex concepts into easy-to-understand examples, making this video
Why A Dip in Payment Paradise Can be An Opportunity
I've been watching $Visa(V)$ closely, and with the recent price dips, I'm starting to feel a bullish itch. While Visa isn't a stock that'll make you an overnight millionaire, it's a historical powerhouse known for steady growth and dependable returns. For long-term investors like myself, these dips can be golden buying opportunities. Visa, along with $MasterCard(MA)$, forms a duopoly in the global payments processing space. This translates to a massive moat – a significant competitive advantage – that's nearly impossible for new players to breach. Visa sits at the heart of trillions of dollars worth of transactions every year, and that's not likely to change anytime soon. Visa boasts a remarkable track record.
Neobanking's Rising Star: Why Nu Holdings (NU) is a Bullish Buy
#NU #neobanking The financial landscape is shifting, and neobanks like Nu Holdings (NU) are at the forefront of this change. Neobanks are digital-first financial institutions offering a streamlined and tech-driven alternative to traditional banks. Globally, neobanks are experiencing explosive growth, driven by factors like tech adoption and a rising demand for convenient financial services. Nu Holdings, a leading neobank in Latin America, stands out as a particularly compelling investment opportunity. NuBank's Rise and Recent Performance Founded in Brazil, NuBank has become a neobanking powerhouse. It boasts over 80 million customers in Brazil alone, making it the country's fourth-largest bank by customer count. This rapid growth is reflected in its stock price. Despite a broader market co
Eli Lilly: A Bullish Case Fueled by Innovation and Approvals
#LLY Eli Lilly and Company (LLY $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ ) has taken the healthcare sector by storm this year, with its stock price soaring over 97%. Recent news, positive FDA developments, and strong fundamentals paint a compelling picture for continued growth. Let's delve deeper into the factors driving bullish sentiment on LLY. Recent Wins and Regulatory Tailwinds Lilly recently secured a key victory with the FDA panel's endorsement of donanemab, its Alzheimer's disease treatment. This positive development paves the way for potential FDA approval in the coming months, opening a massive market opportunity. Additionally, news of potential Medicare coverage expansion for GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, including Lilly's Mounjaro (Tirzepatide), could significantly
Powering the Future: Why Amazon Remains a Bullish Buy in the Age of AI
#Amazon Despite a volatile market in 2024, Amazon (AMZN $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ ) continues to be a compelling investment opportunity. While its stock price is down slightly year-to-date, recent advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI), continued dominance in cloud computing, and strong fundamentals solidify Amazon's position as a leader in the tech sector. Let's explore the factors driving this bullish outlook. AI Leadership and Continuous Innovation Amazon remains at the forefront of AI innovation. Recent breakthroughs in areas like natural language processing and computer vision fuel excitement for future applications across its vast ecosystem. This focus on AI is crucial, as it has the potential to revolutionize everything from logistics and au
CrowdStrike No Significant Price Target Change After Its S&P 500 Inclusion
On 07 June 2024, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ will join the S&P 500 index on 21 June, following the stock's recent GAAP profitability. After the announcement on 07 June, CRWD did have traded upwards on 10 June onwards, only until 21 June when the inclusion actually happened, we saw CRWD experiencing a drop to its low on 24 June (Monday). This is quite far from the anticipation from analysts that despite macro and other factors, CRWD is expected to trade up on the news of its inclusion in the S&P 500 index. Looks like the impact on CRWD stock price might be short-lived as we saw that CRWD traded rather sideway after 24 June. In this article I would like to share on the price target estimate th