To The Moon

As the Federal Reserve’s September meeting approaches, speculation is growing over the magnitude of the expected rate cut. While many traders are pricing in a quarter-point reduction, recent market movements suggest the possibility of a half-point cut is gaining traction. Amid mixed inflation signals and cooling labor market data, all eyes are on how the Fed will respond. This report also highlights developments from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ), alongside key movements in precious metals and technology sectors. Federal Reserve Speculation and Inflation Data Fed Faces Tough Decision The Fed is set to make a critical decision next week, with the balance shifting toward a quarter-point rate cut. However, a recent decline in Treasur

Q2 earnings season is now behind us. I’ll provide a more comprehensive recap later, but for now, let’s look at how the future outlook has changed after Q2 earnings. One metric I like to examine is how much companies adjust their full-year guidance. Generally, software companies follow a beat-and-raise model in their forecasts. The “raise” part reflects how much the future outlook (i.e., the guidance) changes. When we compare full-year guidance for 2024 from the Q2 call versus the Q1 call (~3 months ago), you’ll see in the graph below that, for the most part, full-year guidance didn’t change significantly. The median full-year “raise” was only 0.3%.Looking at Q2, the median “beat” (i.e., how much a company’s Q2 results exceeded consensus) was around 1.5%. So, while the median quarterly beat

Many market watchers agree that the AI sector has been a major driver of the market rebound over the past year. Meanwhile, with inflation easing, investors are closely tracking the economy. Recent economic indicators suggest that conditions for a Fed rate cut are maturing, possibly as soon as later this month.Investors are also keen on AI adoption rates and looking for signs that this trend will continue. Recent results indicate that these long-term tailwinds are set to continue.Against this backdrop, semiconductor giant $Broadcom(AVGO)$ surged 20.7% this week, AI chip leader $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ jumped 17.1%, and AI cloud provider $Oracle(ORCL)$ rose 13.9%, accor

As the probability of Vice President Harris winning increases, U.S. stocks showed signs of the "Trump Trade" cooling off and the "Harris Trade" gaining momentum. Investors are selling off stocks expected to benefit from a second Trump term, while stocks aligned with Harris's policy focus are drawing attention.Trump-sensitive Stocks FellFor instance, Bitcoin prices fell, and Trump-sensitive stocks like $Trump Media & Technology(DJT)$ and private prison operator $Geo Group Inc(GEO)$ also dropped. In contrast, solar energy stocks, long sluggish, began to rebound. According to Dow Jones Market Data, solar stocks surged, marking their biggest single-day gain since May. Solar ETFs, like

About one year ago on 23 August 2023, I had a post about buying bank stocks, then. (click here ! to refresh memory !) The warning came post fallout from US’s March 2023 banking debacle that saw 3 US regional banks went belly up. Still remember who they were ? Silicon Valley Bank (SVB): Known for serving technology startups & venture capital firms, failed on 10 Mar 2023. Signature Bank: New York-based bank with a significant presence in the cryptocurrency industry, it was closed by regulators on 12 Mar 2023. First Republic Bank: While not as immediate as the failures of SVB and Signature Bank, First Republic Bank faced significant financial

Latest inflation data suggests a slight rate cut by the Federal Reserve is likely 🇺🇸 S&P 500 Index: +0.75% 📈  🇺🇸 Nasdaq Index: +1.00% 📈  🇪🇺 STOXX 600 Index: +0.80% 📈 🇯🇵 Nikkei 225 Index: +3.41% 📈  🇭🇰 Hang Seng Index: +0.90% 📈  🇨🇳 CSI 300 Index: -0.43% 📉  • U.S. stock markets closed higher, with the S&P 500 Index $S&P 500(.SPX)$   and Nasdaq Composite Index $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$  $Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$  rising by 0.8% and 1.0%, respectively, after the latest inflation data strengthened expectations for a 25 basis p