1. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ - Bearish Crossover Between 20 and 50DMAThe latest candle is bullish and validated by daily volume, anyway it has to prove the bounce recovering the 10DMA, where it found resistance during Friday's afternoon. Will the crossover be invalidated? The complete analysis is in my profile's link.Image2. $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ : As anticipated when the shooting star appeared one month ago already, the 50DMA is decorative for Small Caps, it was breached without much effort. $214 - $219 is a major support, and a key level to watch next week is $224, since it rejected price action on Friday in confluence with the 5DMA.ImageTrading is akin to any skill that requires performance; merely pract
1.This trend is not your friend...Global ex-US/Small/Value has been in a 15-year relative bear market vs US/large/growth, and still shows no signs of turning.But there is a big opportunity hiding hereImage2.What stands out to me in this chart is both the tendency for small caps to beat large caps over the *long* term (i.e. there is a clear uptrend there)BUT -- also, the long-term is made up of many short and medium-term swings and cycles around that trend (aka *opportunities*)Image3.Why do stocks go up in the long-run?(clue 👇 )(p.s. also in there are some clues as to what makes them go down) $.SPX(.SPX)$$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image
Mental Model: Understanding Value Creation, Pricing Power, Barriers to Entry
Here's my mental model for understanding how value creation, pricing power, barriers to entry and switching costs all come together.VALUE CREATION: Profit growth requires selling more, raising prices and cutting costs.PRICING POWER: Raising prices requires pricing power. Customers only put up with price hikes if there is no alternative (unique product), if the alternative is lower quality (superior product), if the alternative is a higher price (cheaper product) or if using the alternative is inconvenient (switching cost).BARRIERS TO ENTRY: There is only no alternative if companies can't replicate their competitors. Competitors can't replicate if they don't know how (knowledge barrier), don't have the capability (capability barrier), don't have the resource (resource barrier) or aren't all
As we bid farewell to a volatile 2024, investors are turning their gaze toward the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead in 2025. The U.S. stock market has been a stage for both euphoria and caution, and 2025 promises to bring another chapter of uncertainty, shaped by economic policies, geopolitical dynamics, and technological breakthroughs. Let’s dive into the key factors that will likely define the market's trajectory in the coming year. 1. Federal Reserve Policy: A Balancing Act The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy will continue to be a dominant narrative in 2025. With inflation moderating in the latter half of 2024, the Fed paused rate hikes, but a potential soft landing remains elusive. The debate between “higher for longer” and “pivoting” will shape equity markets, especially
🌟🌟🌟Investing can sometimes feel like a roller coaster ride but that is what makes it so exciting. However when it is on a downward slide, just hang on tight and enjoy the ride as the next turn will see it going up! To cushion against the ups and downs of the stock market, I love to invest in Index ETFs as they help to provide me with a more steady ride due to their sheer diversification of stocks they hold. In fact for me, Diversification is the key to having a successful long term portfolio. For those who are new, an Index ETF is a type of fund that tracks the performance of a specific stock market index. It can either hold physical shares of the Index's constituents or products that mimic its price movement. The benefits of investing in index
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have recently reached record highs, powered by tech-driven momentum. As 2025 approaches, major institutions project a bullish year ahead. Some analysts predict the S&P 500 could hit 7,000 points—a substantial climb from current levels. 🔍 What’s Driving Optimism? 1️⃣ Tech Momentum: Tech stocks, particularly in AI, clean energy, and semiconductors, continue to lead. The below chart illustrates the performance of the Nasdaq Tech Index over the past six months, highlighting its resilience and growth trajectory. Easing Rate Pressure: The Federal Reserve may pivot toward rate cuts in the latter half of 2025, potentially reducing borrowing costs and encouraging capital inflows into growth stocks. Corporate Strength: Despite macro uncertainties, strong earnings growt
I closed $SOFI 20241220 14.5 PUT$ ,Weekly Put Selling Strategy: A Winning Formula with SoFi My journey into selling weekly puts for SoFi stock has been nothing short of remarkable. The strategy is simple but highly effective: I consistently sell out-of-the-money (OTM) cash-secured puts to earn weekly premiums. By carefully managing risk and capitalizing on SoFi’s solid fundamentals, I’ve turned this into a reliable income stream while maintaining a strong margin of safety. The Mechanics of Weekly Put Selling Selling OTM cash-secured puts allows me to generate weekly income by committing to buy SoFi shares at a lower price—if assigned. This strategy is particularly advantageous because SoFi has been delivering positive ear
$Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF(SCHD)$ back in Schd! Sold off this etf over a year ago, because I decided to focus on higher yield dividend stocks. But seriously the price has dropped sooo much I just had to get back in. There is no logical reason I can see for the dramatic drop. Only brought a small position yesterday while i fact check and make sure I'm not missing anything. But it seems crazy cheap given the diversification it provides. I don't like a couple of the stocks Schd is in, but overall way more great and safe dividend stocks. I will likely DCA in over the next two months while the market is quiet. Schd used to make up roughly 4% of my portfolio, unlikely I'll put that much in, but I could see investing up to $1000 in the nex
Christmas is one of the most important times of the year for gathering together and exchanging gifts.What gifts have you prepared for your friends or family?Will you go for something they’ve always wanted, tailored to their preferences, or play it safe with a classic holiday gift, like a bouquet of flowers or a bottle of perfume?Recently, Trump launched a fragrance called “Fight, Fight, Fight”, marketed as the perfect Christmas gift for your family. Priced at $199 per bottle, it’s already sold out.Interestingly, a photo of him and Jill Biden (President Biden's wife) attending an event together has been turned into an ad for his perfume. The tagline? “A fragrance your enemies can’t resist.”Would you buy Trump’s Fight perfume?Previously, Trump also launched a fragrance called “Victory”. Do y
🌟🌟🌟Nvidia $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ is up 3% on Friday's trading after Morgan Stanley issued a Bullish report on AI Semiconductor stocks calling Nvidia stock a Top Pick for 2025 with a Target Price of USD 166. That is an upside potential of 23%! After reaching its all time high of USD 152.89 in November, Nvidia's share price has been in a slump and is down 8% in the past month. However Nvidia is still up 179% year todate. Is Nvidia still a good buy? Let's check out Nvidia's Q3 24 Earnings report. For the quarter, Nvidia's revenue is up 17% to USD 35.1 billion from previous quarter and a massive 94% from a year ago. GAAP earnings per share was 0.78 cents, up 16% from
The top 5 holdings - $IONQ, $JMIA, $RKLB, $AEHR & $INDI
Small caps are starting to look VERY attractive. Many are down significantly from their peaks, creating some potentially juicy opportunities.Today highlights the importance of patience and a long-term view in small-cap investing. By holding firm and even starting a couple of new positions -- I achieved my largest dollar gain ever in the portfolio.Here are the top 5 holdings: $IONQ Inc.(IONQ)$$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$$Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$$Aehr Test(AEHR)$$Indie Semiconductor Inc.(INDI)$ Image
1.Barrier or Breakout?The "hours of work required to buy an ounce of Gold" indicator is approaching a familiar sticking point and historical stumbling block for the gold price. $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ Image2.The "Prospective Equity Risk Premium" (i.e. based on forward-looking expected returns) is set to be negative for the USA and positive for the rest of the world...Here's how this will impact investors and asset allocation decisions $.SPX(.SPX)$$.IXIC(.IXIC)$$.DJI(.DJI)$ Image3.Here's a simple (but useful) framework for figuring out when to go maximum growth vs defense in asset allocation(of course there is t