By the 11th day of the U.S.–Iran war, markets have gone through extreme turbulence. WTI crude futures have surged in the short term from 80 dollars—a level many traders saw as a point to close positions—to nearly 120 dollars, and then, within just one day, plunged sharply back down to around 83. U.S. equity indices also tumbled quickly when the war escalated, only to stage a broad-based rebound afterward. At this point, many investors are likely asking themselves: how should we position our portfolios now? What opportunities in the market are still worth our close attention? To figure out what opportunities in the market are really worth seizing right now, we first need to understand the macro logic that is driving current volatility. Let’s take a look at the macro transmission chain we’re

First, let me update you on my recent trading moves. I haven't been particularly active in equities lately; instead, I've maintained a light short position on the Euro and locked in some profits from a crude oil bull calendar spread (buying the near month and selling the deferred month three months out). Currently, my dprofits are entirely concentrated in my futures account. Today, I closed my crude oil calendar spread position, booking a modest profit over the past few days. Remember our trading rule? "Rest during minor volatility, rest during extreme volatility, and no rest when there is no volatility". When a major risk event triggers massive market swings, our best approach in the futures market is to minimize our trade frequency, increase our win rate, and appropriately reduce our pos

Ahead of OPEC’s monthly market analysis and the IEA’s annual energy outlook this week, WTI steadied after three straight up days, signaling a shift from chasing strength to waiting on new data. Traders are focused on Wednesday night’s OPEC release and the forthcoming IEA outlook.​ $WTI原油主连 2512(CLmain)$ Curve signalsThe WTI term structure has seen the spread between far-month and near-month contracts narrow markedly, a classic sign that inventories are moving from tight toward looser in the physical market. Since the October 20 bottom in WTI, far-month vs near-month spread have kept compressing, implying faltering buy interest in near-month and a supply backdrop shifting from tight to more ample. Throughout the year, worries about a “large sur

For a long time, natural gas supply and demand have always been closely related to winter demand, showing seasonal characteristics. Historically, as homes and industries have increased their heating needs during the colder months, the demand for natural gas has surged, driving its price soaring. However, recent market dynamics suggest that volatility in natural gas is no longer limited to winter. As summer approaches, a number of factors are beginning to influence the market, suggesting that our view of natural gas seasonality needs to be changed.Demand patterns are changingIncreased power generation consumptionThe increase in natural gas for power generation is an important driver of demand during the summer months. As the world shifts to cleaner energy sources, natural gas is often seen

At about 21:00 Beijing time, WTI crude oil price suddenly soared, with an increase of more than 1.35% within a few minutes, while Brent crude oil hit the $90/barrel mark for the first time since November last year. Affected by this, some domestic futures varieties continued to rise after opening at night, with the main contracts of feed oil and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) rising by over 2% and SC crude oil rising by nearly 2%.PictureSaudis announced that it would extend the voluntary production reduction of 1 million barrels per day for three months.Russia announced that it will continue to voluntarily reduce the oil supply by 300,000 barrels per day until the end of December 2023.In addition, Saudi Arabia also indicated that it will review the voluntary production reduction decision every mo

Fitch Ratings, an international rating agency, downgraded the Long-Term Rating from "AAA" to "AA +", and its outlook changed from negative to stable. The reason is that the fiscal situation is expected to deteriorate in the next three years, and the government debt burden is high and increasing.PictureIn response, US Treasury Secretary Yellen immediately refuted it as "arbitrary and out of date".Former US Treasury Secretary Summers said: "There is no doubt about the solvency of the United States."The White House then issued a special statement saying, "At a time when President Biden achieved the strongest recovery of any major economy in the world,Downgrading the U.S. is Contrary to reality. "Indeed, if you just look at the small non-agricultural ADP data released tonight, you really have