Over the past week, the Middle East situation has been marked by a ceasefire that remains temporarily in place, stalled negotiations, and no meaningful improvement in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. On April 21, Iran declined to attend the second round of U.S.-Iran talks scheduled for April 22. The United States then extended the ceasefire period and said it would maintain maritime pressure and military deterrence until Iran submits a unified proposal. This suggests that developments are not moving toward smooth diplomatic progress.
As for the Strait of Hormuz, market attention has shifted from whether it is nominally open to whether actual shipping has truly resumed. The latest reports still point to disrupted transit, indicating that although the ceasefire framework has not collapsed, maritime transport has not returned to normal and risks to shipping and energy supply remain. Overall, the situation is still defined by an extended ceasefire, stalled talks, and restricted passage through the strait, meaning the geopolitical risk premium has not fully faded and markets are still repricing around future negotiations and shipping conditions.
As of 12:00 p.m. on April 23, 2026, the week’s major asset moves were as follows.
In an environment where macro expectations keep swinging, price action alone is no longer enough to identify the market’s main narrative.By contrast, inventory trends provide a clearer window into physical supply and demand, while fund flows reveal how investors are adjusting portfolio allocation.With that in mind, it makes sense to examine the latest developments in U.S. equities, U.S. Treasuries, crude oil, copper, aluminum, gold, and silver through the dual lens of inventories and capital flows.
1. U.S. Equities and Treasuries: Equity Flows Weaken Further, Bond Outflows Have Yet to Reverse
According to the latest data from the Investment Company Institute, or ICI:
The ICI, founded in 1940, is one of the most influential organizations in the U.S. fund industry. Its flow data is widely regarded by the market as an authoritative source for tracking subscriptions and redemptions in U.S. mutual funds. At the same time, the ICI has long published statistics on regulated fund assets and flows in both the U.S. and global markets. Because its methodology is stable and its coverage is broad, it is widely cited by brokerages, research institutions, and financial media.
Net outflows from U.S. equity funds increased: For the week ending April 15, 2026, U.S. equity funds posted net outflows of $14.37 billion, remaining in net outflow territory and indicating that the funding environment for equity mutual funds is still weak, with no meaningful improvement in investor sentiment yet.
From a marginal perspective, the net outflow in the week of April 15 widened significantly by $3.66 billion compared with the week of April 8, showing that the improvement seen in the prior week, when outflows had narrowed, did not continue, and that equity funds have once again come under renewed redemption pressure. However, compared with earlier periods of heavy outflows, the current scale of withdrawals has increased but has not yet reached an extreme level.
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ $Micro E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(MESmain)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(NQmain)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini Dow Jones - main 2606(YMmain)$ $Micro E-mini Dow Jones - main 2606(MYMmain)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$
U.S. Treasury and bond fund flows have not yet returned to net inflows: For the week ending April 15, 2026, U.S. bond funds recorded net outflows of $2.56 billion, suggesting that the funding environment for bond mutual funds has not yet stabilized.
From a marginal perspective, net outflows in the week of April 15 widened by $1.12 billion compared with the week of April 8, indicating that after a brief easing in redemption pressure the week before, bond funds weakened again in the latest week. However, compared with the $20.17 billion net outflow in the week of April 1, the current scale of outflows has narrowed significantly. This suggests that the earlier wave of intense redemptions has eased, but bond fund flows have not yet returned to a state of sustained net inflows.
On the yield curve, as of the latest data on April 22, 2026, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.3%, while the 3-month Treasury yield stood at 3.69%. Looking at the most recent movement on the far right side of the chart, within the observation window of the past week, both the short-end 3-month yield (yellow line) and the long-end 10-year yield (blue line) fluctuated within a narrow range, with no clear directional shift overall. Interest rate levels remained relatively stable, while the positive spread between the two narrowed slightly.
2.Crude Oil: Inventories Edged Higher at the Margin, but the Overall Picture Remains One of Volatile Repair
According to the latest Bloomberg data:
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories: As of April 22, 2026 (the latest data point on the chart), U.S. commercial crude inventories stood at 465.729 million barrels. Judging from the chart trend, the 2026 curve for nationwide U.S. commercial crude inventories (orange line) has continued to rise recently, and since April the overall pattern has still been one of step-like inventory accumulation. From a historical percentile perspective, although inventory levels have recovered to around 466 million barrels, they are still broadly near the middle of the past five-year range, not far from the historical average, and have not yet entered a clearly elevated zone.
Cushing crude inventories: At Cushing, the main delivery hub for U.S. crude oil, inventories stood at 30.568 million barrels as of April 22, 2026. From the chart trend, Cushing inventories have generally moved higher since the start of 2026, showing that stocks at the delivery hub have recovered from the lows seen at the beginning of the year. However, inventories fell back temporarily last week before rising again in the latest week, indicating that the current restocking process is not a straight-line increase but rather an upward trend accompanied by fluctuations. In terms of historical percentile, the current absolute inventory level is still below the historical average for 2021–2025 and remains in the lower part of the past five-year range, suggesting that although Cushing inventories have improved from earlier levels, they have not yet returned to normal.
From a marginal perspective, after entering April, the corresponding trends in nationwide U.S. commercial crude inventories and Cushing inventories (orange line) have not shown a one-way increase, but rather have been accompanied by some fluctuations. Nationwide commercial inventories have remained near elevated levels with only modest fluctuations, while Cushing inventories, despite being in an upward trend, temporarily declined before rising again. For the week ending April 22, 2026, EIA data showed that U.S. commercial crude inventories increased by 1.925 million barrels from the previous week. Over the same period, inventories at Cushing, the main U.S. crude delivery hub, also rose by 806,000 barrels. Taken together, the chart data indicate that North American crude oil saw some replenishment in commercial storage in the latest week, but looking at the overall picture since April, inventories still appear more consistent with volatile repair than with sustained, large-scale accumulation.
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3.Copper: Shanghai Destocking Continues While Global Inventories Remain Elevated
Total visible global copper inventories stand at around 1.322 million tons, still in the high range of recent years. By component, CME copper inventories are about 0.595 million short tons, LME copper inventories are about 0.542 million tons, and Shanghai copper inventories are about 0.240 million tons. Both CME and LME inventories remain at clearly elevated levels relative to recent years, while Shanghai inventories have dropped sharply from their March peak. Looking over a longer time horizon, global copper inventories have continued to rise over the past year, with overseas inventory accumulation particularly pronounced. As a result, overall inventory pressure has not yet seen any meaningful easing.
Looking at the marginal pattern on the far right of the chart, the latest week still shows a fairly clear divergence: Shanghai copper inventories continued to decline noticeably, LME copper inventories continued to rise, and CME copper inventories remained broadly stable at high levels, with only a slight increase. Total global copper inventories extended the high-level sideways trend seen last week, with the latest reading still steady near 1.32 million tons. In other words, the defining features of the latest week are that “Shanghai continues to destock, CME remains stable at high levels, LME continues to accumulate, and total inventories remain elevated.” For now, the marginal inventory pressure still mainly comes from overseas markets, especially from the continued inventory build on the LME side.
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4.Aluminum: Divergence Between Domestic and Overseas Inventories Continues, While Total Inventories Are Broadly Flat
As of April 17, 2026, total aluminum inventories across the three major exchanges stood at about 0.869 million tons (869,000 tons). Of this total, COMEX aluminum inventories were about 1,566 tons, LME aluminum inventories were about 0.389 million tons, and Shanghai aluminum inventories were about 0.478 million tons. In absolute terms, Shanghai inventories remain clearly elevated, while LME inventories, though relatively low, still account for an important share of total inventories across the three exchanges. COMEX inventories, meanwhile, continue to remain extremely low.
From the marginal changes in the latest week, aluminum inventories across the three major exchanges continue to show clear divergence. COMEX aluminum inventories kept declining, with the latest reading falling to 1,566 tons, indicating that U.S. aluminum inventories are still being drawn down from low levels. LME aluminum inventories also continued to decline to about 0.389 million tons, extending the previous downward trend, showing that the tightness in overseas spot supply has not meaningfully eased. Shanghai aluminum inventories, by contrast, continued to rise to 0.478 million tons, the highest absolute level in five years, indicating that inventory pressure in the domestic market is still building.
Structurally, the core feature of current aluminum inventories remains “overseas destocking and high domestic inventories.” Overseas COMEX and LME inventories remain low and continue to be drawn down, reflecting ongoing tightness in spot circulation, while Shanghai inventories remain elevated and continue to rise, indicating that domestic supply pressure has not yet been fully released. Total inventories across the three exchanges were broadly unchanged in the latest week, and the internal changes still reflected overseas destocking partially offsetting domestic inventory accumulation.
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5.Gold and Silver: Inventories Hit Fresh Lows Again, While Capital Is Tilting Toward Gold
According to the latest Wind data:
Inventory side (physical fundamentals): As of the latest data on April 22, 2026, COMEX gold inventories stood at 29.55 million troy ounces, while silver inventories came in at 317 million troy ounces. From the historical trend, both have shown an extremely steep long-term downward trajectory. Especially from the second half of 2025 into 2026, the pace of inventory drawdown in both gold and silver has accelerated significantly. At present, the absolute inventory levels of both metals have fallen below all lows recorded during 2021–2025, placing them in the lowest range seen in recent years.
COMEX gold inventory
COMEX silver inventory
Capital side (positioning): As of the latest available data, COMEX gold non-commercial long positions (blue line) stood at 210,000 contracts, while short positions (yellow line) stood at 47,500 contracts. For COMEX silver, non-commercial long positions (blue line) were 32,400 contracts, while short positions (yellow line) were 8,829 contracts. From a historical percentile perspective, speculative net long positions in both gold and silver (longs minus shorts) have fallen sharply from previous historical highs.
COMEX gold positioning data
COMEX silver positioning data
From a marginal perspective, looking at the latest movement on the far right side of the charts:
On the inventory side, both gold and silver inventory curves continue to trend one-way downward, indicating that metal is continuously leaving deliverable exchange warehouses.
On the capital side, non-commercial long positions in gold have increased somewhat at the very end of the chart, while non-commercial long positions in silver have been declining. Meanwhile, short positions in both metals have also been falling. This means that capital allocation within precious metals is becoming increasingly differentiated, with the market showing a clearer preference for gold over silver. Against the backdrop of declining short positions in both, bullish conviction toward gold is strengthening, while silver is more characterized by an active cooling-off in long positioning.
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6.Conclusion: Track Capital Flows and Understand the Real Inventory Picture
In the latest week, global macro assets have still been trading within a framework defined by “persistent geopolitical risk, repeated swings in growth expectations, and increasingly cautious capital allocation.” Looking at both inventories and capital flows, current asset signals remain divided: outflow pressure in U.S. equities has started to rise again, while U.S. bonds, though recovering after a wave of severe redemptions, have not yet returned to stable net inflows; crude oil inventories edged higher in the latest week, but overall since April the pattern still points more to volatile repair than to sustained accumulation. Copper and aluminum continue to reflect regional divergence, with copper showing Shanghai destocking, LME accumulation, and total inventories moving sideways at high levels, while aluminum shows overseas destocking alongside persistently high domestic inventories. In gold and silver, inventories continue to be deeply drawn down, but capital allocation is diverging, with gold attracting more bullish interest while silver is seeing more cooling in long positioning.
Overall, the market has not yet formed a single clear trading narrative. It is closer to a process of rebalancing among repeated geopolitical swings, shifting risk appetite, and divergence in supply-demand structures. That wraps up this week’s data breakdown. If ceasefire implementation continues to fluctuate and negotiations still fail to make substantive progress, then whether the oil risk premium and the divergence within precious metals will persist remains something worth watching closely next week.
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