Over the past week, the situation in the Middle East has presented a state of "extreme stalemate, neither war nor peace." Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, the United States briefly initiated "Operation Liberty" in an attempt to escort trapped vessels out. However, following a strong response from Iran, US President Donald Trump officially announced the suspension of the plan on May 5, citing the "acceptance of Pakistani mediation." During this period, Iranian officials reiterated that the strait would not reopen unless dictated by national will, leaving energy supply chain risks elevated.
On May 7, local time, a new round of military conflict erupted between the US and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the sudden outbreak of hostilities, US President Donald Trump insisted that the US-Iran ceasefire agreement "remains effective," describing the clash merely as "a gentle tap".
As of 4:30 PM on May 7, 2026, the performance of key assets for the week is as follows:
In an environment where macro expectations keep swinging, price action alone is no longer enough to identify the market’s main narrative.By contrast, inventory trends provide a clearer window into physical supply and demand, while fund flows reveal how investors are adjusting portfolio allocation.With that in mind, it makes sense to examine the latest developments in U.S. equities, U.S. Treasuries, crude oil, copper, aluminum, gold, and silver through the dual lens of inventories and capital flows.
1. US Equities Sustain Net Outflows, US Bonds Maintain Net Inflows
According to the latest data from ICI:
US Equity: For the week ending April 29, 2026, US equity funds experienced an estimated net outflow of $24.08 billion, accounting for roughly 0.2% of their assets as of March 31. This continued net outflow indicates that the capital landscape for equity mutual funds remains weak, and risk appetite has yet to see a significant recovery.
Looking at marginal changes, the estimated net outflow widened from $18.91 billion for the week of April 22 to $24.08 billion for the week of April 29, an increase of approximately $5.17 billion. This indicates that the pressure of capital withdrawal from equity funds is still mounting. However, compared to periods of more severe historical redemptions, the current net outflow—though at a relatively high level—has not devolved into disorganized, concentrated panic selling. Instead, it more closely resembles continuous position reduction driven by cautious sentiment rather than typical panic outflows.
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US Bond: For the week ending April 29, 2026, US bond funds recorded an estimated single-week net inflow of $8.48 billion, representing about 0.2% of assets as of March 31. This demonstrates that bond mutual funds continue to attract incremental capital, and the demand for safe-haven and robust allocations persists.
Marginally, the $8.48 billion net inflow for the week of April 29 was a slight decrease of about $860 million compared to the $9.34 billion inflow during the week of April 22. This suggests that while bond capital remains in net inflow territory, the marginal momentum has slowed slightly compared to the previous week.
On the yield curve, according to the latest data as of May 6, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield (blue line) recorded 4.36%, while the 3-month Treasury yield (yellow line) recorded 3.69%. Observing the recent trend on the far right of the chart, within the past week's observation window, the short-end 3-month yield (yellow line) remained relatively stable with a slight increase. Conversely, the long-end 10-year yield (blue line) showed notable volatility, sharply pulling back after a modest rise. Overall, with long-end rates falling and short-end rates relatively flat, the positive spread between the two is shifting toward convergence.
2.Crude Oil: Destocking Trend Continues
According to the latest data from Bloomberg:
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Total US Commercial Crude Inventories: As of May 6, 2026 (the latest data point on the chart), US commercial crude inventories stood at 457.182 million barrels. Based on the chart trend, the inventory curve hit an inflection point in late April and turned downward, a destocking trend that has continued into early May. From a historical percentile perspective, although current inventory levels have further retreated to around 457 million barrels, they remain above the historical average (white line) for the past five years (2021-2025), situated in the mid-to-high portion of the five-year fluctuation range.
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Cushing Crude Inventories: As of May 6, 2026, crude inventories recorded 29.124 million barrels. Looking at the chart, Cushing inventories experienced a significant restorative upward phase earlier in 2026. However, upon entering April, the rally stalled and shifted to a volatile downward trend. Combined with historical percentiles, the current absolute inventory level remains below the 2021-2025 historical average (white line), generally sitting in the lower tier of the past five-year range.
In terms of marginal changes, entering May, both national commercial crude inventories and Cushing inventories (orange line) have continued their previous downward trajectory. The latest data for the week ending May 6, 2026, shows that US commercial crude inventories decreased by 2.313 million barrels compared to the previous week. Over the same period, inventories at Cushing, the major US crude delivery hub, also recorded a drop of 648,000 barrels. Synthesizing the chart data, North American crude continued to show clear destocking at both commercial storage and delivery hub levels over the latest week. Overall, this reflects a sustained pullback following a cyclical inventory peak, with the destocking logic gradually strengthening.
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3.Copper: Shanghai Destocking Continues, Total Inventory Sees Slight Rebound
As of May 1, 2026, global visible copper inventories totaled approximately 1.292 million tons, remaining in a historically elevated range. Breaking it down, CME copper inventories stood at about 0.615 million short tons, LME copper inventories at approximately 0.542 million metric tons, and Shanghai copper inventories at around 0.192 million metric tons. Both CME and LME inventories are currently at distinctly high levels for recent years, while Shanghai inventories continue to probe lower in line with previous trends. Over a longer cycle, global copper inventories have steadily climbed over the past year, with overseas inventory accumulation being particularly pronounced; thus, overall inventory pressure has not seen substantive relief.
Observing the marginal patterns on the far right of the charts reveals a clear divergence between domestic and overseas trends in the latest week: Shanghai copper inventories continued to fall, LME copper inventories reversed upward after a brief dip the previous week, and CME copper inventories also showed a slight upward extension at high levels. Driven by overseas accumulation, total global copper inventories ended last week's correction and posted a minor rebound, with the latest reading ticking back up to around 1.292 million tons. In other words, the core characteristics of the latest week are "Shanghai continues destocking, LME resumes upward momentum, CME slightly increases at highs, and total inventory slightly rebounds." The marginal inventory pressure persists; despite a robust destocking pace domestically, ongoing overseas accumulation has caused the overall center of gravity for inventories to edge up slightly once again.
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4.Aluminum: Overseas Inventory Continues to Decline
As of May 1, 2026 (SHFE data has not yet been updated; previous week's data is still used), combined aluminum inventories across the three major exchanges totaled approximately 0.847 million tons (847,000 tons). Among these, COMEX aluminum inventories were around 1,218 tons, LME aluminum inventories were roughly 0.365 million tons (365,000 tons), and Shanghai aluminum inventories stood at about 0.481 million tons (481,000 tons). In absolute terms, Shanghai inventories remain at absolute highs for the past two years, whereas LME inventories are at relatively low levels within a sustained downward channel, and COMEX inventories bottomed out long ago and remain in an extremely low range.
Looking at marginal changes over the latest week, aluminum inventories at the two major overseas exchanges maintained a smooth downward trend. COMEX aluminum inventories continued to drop, with the latest reading falling to 1,218 tons, indicating that the US aluminum market remains in a state of low-level depletion. LME aluminum inventories also further retreated to roughly 0.365 million tons (365,000 tons), showing no obvious relief in the tight overseas spot supply dynamics. Combined with domestic inventories showing signs of flattening at high levels (0.481 million tons) last week, the global aluminum market generally exhibited destocking characteristics driven by tight overseas supply and demand.
Structurally, the core feature of current aluminum inventories remains "smooth overseas destocking, domestic holding at highs." With the latest week's domestic data missing, short-term focus centers on overseas markets. The continued depletion and bottom-probing of overseas COMEX and LME inventories reflect a strengthening logic of tight overseas spot circulation. Directly influenced by unilateral overseas destocking, and assuming domestic inventories remained flat, combined inventories across the three major exchanges (0.847 million tons) continued a mild downward trend in the latest week.
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5.Gold & Silver: Inventories Hit New Lows, Speculative Bulls Exit
According to the latest data from Wind:
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Inventory Side (Physical Fundamentals): As of the latest data on May 6, 2026, COMEX gold inventories recorded 29.1379 million troy ounces, and silver inventories stood at 313 million troy ounces. From a historical trajectory, both exhibit an extremely steep long-term downward trend. Particularly from the second half of 2025 into 2026, the pace of inventory depletion for both gold and silver accelerated significantly. Currently, the absolute inventory volumes for both metals have broken below all lows seen from 2021 to 2025, sitting in the lowest historical percentile range in recent years.
COMEX Gold Inventories
COMEX Silver Inventories
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Capital Side (Positioning): As of the latest data on April 28, COMEX gold non-commercial long positions (blue line) stood at 211,800 contracts, while short positions (yellow line) were at 52,200 contracts. COMEX silver non-commercial long positions (blue line) were at 31,300 contracts, with short positions (yellow line) at 7,154 contracts. Looking at historical percentiles, the scale of speculative net longs (longs minus shorts) for both gold and silver has experienced a substantial drop from previous historical highs.
COMEX Gold Positions Data
COMEX Silver Positions Data
Regarding marginal changes, observing the recent marginal patterns on the far right of the charts:
On the inventory side, both gold and silver inventory curves maintain a downward depletion posture, indicating a continuous outflow of goods from physical delivery warehouses.
On the capital side, the decrease in non-commercial gold longs (blue line) and the increase in non-commercial shorts (yellow line) suggest that the willingness of bullish funds to exit the gold market persists. Simultaneously, some speculative shorts have begun attempting to call the top and build positions, meaning capital dynamics are brewing downward correction pressure, which aligns with last week's gold price action. For silver, both non-commercial long positions (blue line) and short positions (yellow line) retreated simultaneously at the very end of the chart. This "dual reduction in longs and shorts" indicates a decline in speculative capital activity in the current silver market. Both bulls and bears are reducing positions and adopting a wait-and-see approach, suggesting short-term price action may be dominated by low-volatility, range-bound consolidation.
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6. Conclusion: Track Capital Flows and Understand the Real Inventory Picture
Over the latest week, global macroeconomic assets continued to operate under the framework of "political and geopolitical risk impulses." Viewed from the dual perspectives of inventory and capital, asset signals remain divergent: outflow pressure on US equities is rising, while US bonds maintain net inflows; crude oil broadly continued its destocking performance over the latest week; copper was characterized by continued destocking in Shanghai, a resumption of upward momentum on the LME, a slight increase at highs on the CME, and a minor rebound in total inventory; aluminum saw a continuation of smooth destocking overseas; for gold and silver, inventories continued deep depletion, while in terms of capital allocation, gold saw "reduced longs and increased shorts," and silver exhibited a cooling, wait-and-see posture of "dual reduction in longs and shorts".
Overall, the market has not yet formed a single, clear trading narrative. It is more akin to rebalancing amidst fluctuating geopolitical tensions, oscillating risk appetites, and divergent supply-demand structures. That wraps up our data breakdown for this week. Looking ahead, if there are no substantial breakthroughs in the geopolitical situation, we will wait until next week to see whether the crude oil pullback/destocking and the exit of precious metal bulls will continue.
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