Last night, I hosted a live session on Tiger’s futures platform titled Global Multi-Asset Allocation Strategy. The session covered global macro conditions, U.S. equities, gold, and Bitcoin, with a focus on the market’s key tensions, potential risks, and corresponding trading ideas.
For those who were unable to attend the live session, the replay is available here >>>
U.S. Stocks: Will Semis Drag Markets Lower Again? Bitcoin: Escape Hatch or Bomb?
Below, I have organized the key information and trading-related views from the session to help readers who did not have time to attend quickly understand my current market perspective. Before that, let me briefly introduce my background.
I am currently a contracted strategy lecturer for major global exchanges, including the CME and Singapore Exchange, and a Gold Mentor in China’s Futures Daily live-trading competition. I have more than 20 years of experience in financial investment and trading, with a primary focus on global equity, futures, and options strategies.
My strategy performance is as follows: in 2025, the strategy portfolio recorded a maximum drawdown of 11% and ultimately generated a return of 202%. These figures were exported directly from the brokerage platform. The core investment framework combines alignment between fundamental and technical analysis with the application of derivatives instruments.
The key views from this session are summarized below.
I. Macro: Oil Prices Remain the Core Driver of Global Asset Pricing
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains in a state of “no war, no peace, and no full passage”: large-scale conflict has not escalated, a peace agreement has not been reached, and shipping through the main navigation route has not fully normalized. Given the limited likelihood of a fundamental near-term change, oil prices have remained elevated.
High oil prices are affecting global markets through the following transmission mechanism:
Energy prices→Inflation expectations→U.S. Treasury yields→Equity valuations
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Oil prices remain high while inventories are low; rising diesel prices are likely to continue feeding through into CPI.
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Increased inflationary pressure constrains the scope for lower interest rates and places pressure on long-dated U.S. Treasuries.
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A meaningful decline in oil prices would help cool inflation expectations, push long-term yields lower, and relieve valuation pressure on U.S. equities.
High oil prices have reached the politically sensitive threshold of $4-per-gallon gasoline for Republican support. The U.S. Treasury’s launch of a long-dated Treasury buyback program and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials at the Jackson Hole meeting can both be seen as responses to these pressures.
Therefore, whether oil prices can decline and whether geopolitical tensions can ease will remain important indicators for a recovery in U.S. equity risk appetite.$WTI原油主连 2610(CLmain)$ $小原油主连 2610(QMmain)$ $微型WTI原油主连 2610(MCLmain)$ $二倍做多能源ETF-Direxion(ERX)$ $二倍做空能源ETF-Direxion(ERY)$
II. U.S. Treasuries: The Direction of Long-Term Rates Sets the Ceiling for U.S. Equity Valuations
Short positioning in the U.S. Treasury market is currently relatively crowded, with CTA and other systematic funds holding substantial short Treasury positions. If yields were to decline sharply, short covering could be triggered, potentially amplifying volatility in the bond market.
Meanwhile, ahead of the midterm elections, the Federal Reserve is generally likely to be more cautious in its policy operations. What the market should focus on is not any single policy statement, but rather the direction of long-term interest rates as jointly determined by inflation, oil prices, and fiscal policy.
For equities, whether long-dated Treasury yields decline is more important than near-term expectations for rate cuts themselves.
III. U.S. Equities: Earnings Provide Support, but Structural Risks Are Building
From an overall valuation perspective, the S&P 500 has not fully detached from its earnings fundamentals. Corporate earnings growth continues to provide a degree of support for the index. However, this does not mean that the market is without risk.$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $NQ100指数主连 2609(NQmain)$ $微型NQ100指数主连 2609(MNQmain)$ $标普500ETF(SPY)$ $标普500(.SPX)$ $SP500指数主连 2609(ESmain)$ $微型SP500指数主连 2609(MESmain)$ $标普500波动率指数(VIX)$ $道琼斯指数主连 2609(YMmain)$ $微型道琼斯指数主连 2609(MYMmain)$ $道琼斯(.DJI)$
Near-term pressure primarily comes from two sources:
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Elevated long-term U.S. Treasury yields are weighing on equity valuations.
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September and October are typically periods of higher volatility for U.S. equities, and the seasonal volatility pattern in midterm-election years deserves particular attention.
From a market-cycle perspective, the Nasdaq remains in a correction phase. If geopolitical tensions do not ease and oil prices fail to decline, the scope for a market recovery may be constrained.
Over a longer horizon, however, market performance after U.S. midterm elections has generally been relatively constructive. Historically, risk appetite has shown a relatively high probability of improvement from Election Day through the beginning of the following year. That said, investors should remain alert to exceptions arising from macroeconomic variables that develop beyond expectations.
IV. Semiconductors: Fundamentals Intact, but Trading Risks Have risen Significantly
The investment case for AI infrastructure spending and scarcity in computing capacity has not been invalidated, and semiconductor industry fundamentals remain supported. From a trading perspective, however, the sector has entered a phase of significantly greater divergence between bulls and bears.
Two signals warrant particular attention in the near term:
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CDS spreads for certain leading AI companies have widened, indicating that the market is reassessing the pressure associated with heavy capital expenditures and debt financing.
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Continued weakness in token prices also partly reflects forward-looking concerns over returns from AI commercialization.
Drawing on prior examples of crowded trades in assets such as silver and memory, the semiconductor hardware rally may be approaching its later stages. For assets trading at elevated levels, position management and risk control should take priority over simply chasing the trend.$黄金主连 2612(GCmain)$ $微黄金主连 2612(MGCmain)$ $1盎司黄金主连 2612(1OZmain)$ $黄金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$ $白银主连 2612(SImain)$ $微白银主连 2612(SILmain)$ $100盎司白银主连 2612(SICmain)$
V. U.S. Equity Strategy: Defend Against Drawdowns First, Then Seek Opportunities to Add Risk
During the potential volatility upswing in September and October, portfolios may consider using S&P 500 or Nasdaq index put options to hedge against the risk of a systemic drawdown.
For investors who remain constructive on the medium-term outlook but wish to control costs, diagonal-spread strategies may be worth considering. This involves buying a longer-dated call option while selling a near-term out-of-the-money call option, with the position adjusted on a rolling basis as market conditions evolve.
The core purpose of this type of strategy is not to make a one-off directional bet. Rather, it is to preserve medium-term upside exposure while controlling drawdowns through an options structure.
VI. Gold: Range-Bound for the Year; Swing Trading and Options Structures Are Preferable
Gold has been supported by factors such as central-bank purchases since the second quarter. More recently, however, it has been affected by a CTA-driven short squeeze, changing policy expectations, and hawkish policy signals. As a result, it has broadly moved into a range-bound consolidation phase.
$黄金主连 2612(GCmain)$ $微黄金主连 2612(MGCmain)$ $1盎司黄金主连 2612(1OZmain)$ $黄金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$
Gold implied volatility is currently relatively low. Investors who are constructive on near-term upside may consider call spreads with a delta close to 0.5: buying a near-the-money call and selling an out-of-the-money call with a higher strike price.
Over a longer horizon, however, gold’s quarterly chart still shows a degree of overbought pressure. A broad trading range is therefore more likely for the remainder of the year. From a strategic perspective, investors should place greater emphasis on timing and prioritize swing-trading opportunities within the range.
VII. Bitcoin: Transitioning From a Cycle-Driven Asset to a Macro Liquidity Asset
The current Bitcoin rally has been driven to a considerable extent by short covering. It has also displayed notable resilience during the recent pullback in gold. Signals such as the weekly chart structure and a bullish MACD divergence share certain similarities with historical bottoming regions.
More importantly, Bitcoin’s market structure is changing. Spot ETFs, Wall Street institutions, and Bitcoin-treasury companies have continued to lock up supply. As a result, Bitcoin is gradually transitioning from an asset previously dominated by retail-driven four-year cycles into a broader asset class more heavily influenced by macro liquidity conditions.$CME比特币主连 2609(BTCmain)$ $比特币概念(BK4595)$ $比特币ETF概念(BK4594)$ $2倍比特币期货ETF-Volatility Shares(BITX)$ $Amplify Bitcoin 2% Monthly Option Income ETF(BITY)$
From a medium- to long-term perspective, the $60,000–$65,000 range remains an important strategic support zone. Investors able to tolerate elevated volatility may focus on its medium- to long-term allocation value rather than short-term price movements alone.
From a cross-asset allocation perspective, investors may also further examine the relative strength relationship between gold and Bitcoin and improve portfolio efficiency through hedging structures.
Conclusion
The current market can be summarized as follows: oil prices determine inflation expectations; inflation affects U.S. Treasury yields; and Treasury yields, in turn, affect U.S. equity valuations and risk appetite.
In the short term, investors need to guard against the combined risks of elevated oil prices, high long-term interest rates, and seasonal volatility. Over the medium term, better allocation opportunities may emerge if geopolitical tensions ease, oil prices decline, and liquidity conditions improve.
I will continue to monitor key developments across global macro markets, U.S. equities, gold, crude oil, and Bitcoin, and will share further strategic views through live sessions and the community.
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