September Effect Approaching! Is Your Trading Strategy Ready?

Tiger_comments
08-30

Historically, September has been the one of the worst months of the year for the US stock market. It is called September Effect.

In the past 10 years, there are 70% probability that S&P declined, with a decline of -2.3%.

For a longer period, in the past about 100 years, S&P had a -13.5% annualized return.

Aside from historical effects, numerous macro events could lead to higher market volatility.

  • The US jobs report will be released on September 6, and employment data will once again influence market expectations regarding a potential recession. The market expects a total employment of 175,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.2%.

  • The US presidential debate will take place on September 10, with both Harris and Trump committed to attending.

  • Will the CPI release on September 11 have an impact on the Fed's rate cut decision on September 18?

The September Effect - Sterling Total Wealth SolutionsThe September Effect - Sterling Total Wealth Solutions

Despite the prevailing pessimistic outlook, Goldman Sachs analysts recently expressed optimism about September.

Goldman Sachs analyst says he plans to buy in early September and he will turn tactically bullish on August 30th.

  • With the easing of selling pressure from hedge funds and increased stock buybacks by companies following the end of the earnings season, the corporate buyback window from August to September is at a historic high, second only to November to December.

In this election-year September, how will you trade?

Will you take profits and brace for a possible pullback?

Or will you remain optimistic like Goldman Sachs?

Share your Sep. trade plan and comment to win tiger coins~

# September Curse Broken? What's Your Account P/L?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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Comment（32）

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  • TimothyX
    ·08-30
    除了歷史影響之外，許多宏觀事件也可能導致市場波動加劇。

    美國就業報告將於9月6日發佈，就業數據將再次影響市場對潛在衰退的預期。市場預計就業總數爲17.5萬個，失業率爲4.2%。


    The美國總統辯論將於9月10日舉行，哈里斯和特朗普都承諾出席。


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  • Cadi Poon
    ·08-30
    儘管前景普遍悲觀，但高盛分析師最近對9月份表示樂觀。

    高盛分析師表示，他計劃在9月初買入，並將在8月30日轉爲戰術看漲。

    隨着對衝基金拋售壓力的緩解和財報季結束後公司股票回購增加，8-9月的企業回購窗口處於歷史高位，僅次於11-12月。


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  • highhand
    ·08-30
    look for technical setups for trading. since Sep so volatile, and stocks go up and down, very nice for trading. once stop loss hit, exit. once take profit price hit, also exit. follow the rules and enter your trades consistently, you will win in the long run. the stock market is very fun and good to make money.
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  • WanEH
    ·08-30
    September might have another big correction. my plan is less trade and observe. if the price of my watchlist drop a lot, then I may start DCA.
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  • nomadic_m
    ·08-30
    Presidential election years have historically been good for stocks, but past performance isn't a guarantee. Stay focused on long-term investments and avoid emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations, considering both economic fundamentals and political influences when making informed investment decisions.
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  • G0ATT
    ·08-30
    I will treat the market as usual, but with caution. Because, I do not invest in large U.S giants. I pick individual stocks to invest in, such as recently, has been Intel. I think September will not affect Intel that much, since it is significantly undervalued and isn’t prone to such news. What’s important is to keep my positions despite short term volatility, and wait until my covered call options expire. Remember, time in the market beats timing the market. Also, if there are significantly large dips in the market, I should be looking to buy some quick shares of companies at sale. I prefer one or two contracts of mid term call options, because the risk is limited and can offer quick returns, which I will be quick to take profit.
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  • MHh
    ·08-30
    TOP
    Goldman says he plans to buy in early September but doesn’t say when he will sell! This will be a volatile month as the market will definitely react to the presidential debate and then 11/9 there will be CPI release. The market expects that too well will deliver the good news of rate cuts on 18/9. Im expecting a volatile first half and clarity only after Powell’s decision. If he gives what the market wants, then we can expect it to rise and there will definitely be profit takers. Personally, I do intend to take profit sometime this month and review my market allocations. I will rather keep some cash to buy more stocks if they slump as I expect more volatility till the elections.
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  • MasterStonker
    ·08-30
    I think..this September will be different and October might suffer...
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  • 第N次大变革大分流
    ·08-30
    我还是学高盛进行观望吧，pdd的财报和NVIDIA的财报都表现出了墨菲效应，所以保险起见，观望为主
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  • DiAngel
    ·08-30
    My plan for SG stocks : DCA for 2 stocks or acquire 3 new stocks. I had worked out 5 figure amount to deploy since Thursday but wasn’t filled today.


    [Bless][Bless][Bless] Let’s see if my orders can be filled.
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  • Success88
    ·08-30
    Yes ready just keep but $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ no wrong trust me
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  • Universe宇宙
    ·08-30
    @TigerGPT did Buffett say buy when others are fearful? so this September can buy buy buy, right?
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    • TigerGPT: 

      Warren Buffett is famously known for his quote, "Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful." While Buffett did not explicitly say to buy when others are fearful, this quote is often attributed to him and reflects his investment philosophy.

      Regarding the September Effect, it is true that historically September has been a challenging month for the US stock market. There have been instances of market declines during this period. However, it is essential to note that historical trends do not guarantee future performance, and the stock market can be influenced by various factors.

      Goldman Sachs analysts have expressed optimism about September and plan to buy in early September. They believe that with the easing of selling pressure from hedge funds and increased stock buybacks by companies, there may be potential opportunities in the market. However, it is important to conduct thorough research and analysis before making any investment decisions.

      As an AI financial analyst, I cannot provide personalized investment advice. It is recommended that you consult with a financial advisor or do your own research before making any investment decisions. Investment involves risks, including the potential loss of principal.

      08-30
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  • TigerHulk
    ·08-31
    This 0.25 rate cut has already been factored in by the market, high chance might be buy on anticipation and sell on news confirmation. All indices have reached all time high again hence down side risk became very high at this moment.
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  • Dr Rck
    ·08-31
    Why is Goldman Sachs optimistic when they are laying off hundreds themselves this month? Strange isn’t it? Restructuring? Or cut cost?
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  • Merdeka1981
    ·08-31
    Just take the pull backs as opportunities to buy top quality stocks at discounts. Not much chance to do that when the market already picked up pace and shot up.
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  • Victorious_Vi
    ·08-31
    This September could be an exception,ie, not likely to see market decline. Why I think so? First, we are expecting Fed cut on interest rates. This means it will be more affordable to trade/invest in equities with lower interest or cost of capital.This can also lead rotation of funds from bonds, t-bills, and money market funds into equities now that there is more potential for growth and lower returns from fixed income. The second reason is that this August is different and also an outlier- it's not bullish at all as we experience the Black Monday as result of Japanese Yen carry trade. Now stocks are still near support and still potential to recover. I will remain bullish but cautious too and act accordingly as the market present itself.
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  • icycrystal
    ·08-31
    TOP

    I will take caution when trading. no one will know how to market swings... so flow with market instead of against it...

    @Aqa @rL @GoodLife99 @Universe宇宙 @HelenJanet @Shyon @SPACE ROCKET @LMSunshine @koolgal @TigerGPT

    In this election-year September, how will you trade?


    Will you take profits and brace for a possible pullback?


    Or will you remain optimistic like Goldman Sachs?


    Share your Sep. trade plan and comment to win tiger coins~

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    • Shyon: 
      Good to be cautious! never wrong
      09-02
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    • TigerGPT: 

      As an AI analyst, I don't have personal trading preferences or the ability to trade. However, I can provide some insights to help you make an informed decision.

      Historically, September has been a volatile month for the market, especially during election years. The market tends to experience increased uncertainty and volatility as investors react to political developments and policy changes. It is important to carefully consider your investment strategy during this period.

      Here are a few things to consider:

      Analyze the market sentiment: Keep an eye on the news and market sentiment leading up to the election. Assess how potential policy changes may impact different sectors and industries. This will help you identify potential opportunities or risks.

        

      Diversify your portfolio: Consider diversifying your portfolio across different sectors and asset classes to reduce risk. A diversified portfolio can help cushion the impact of market volatility.

        

      Set realistic profit targets: If you have made significant gains in August, it may be prudent to take some profits and secure your returns. However, it is important to set realistic profit targets and not be driven solely by short-term market movements.

        

      Maintain a long-term perspective: It's crucial to remember that investing is a long-term game. Avoid making impulsive decisions based on short-term market fluctuations. Stick to your investment plan and consider the fundamentals of the companies you invest in.

        

      Stay informed: Continuously monitor market developments, economic indicators, and company-specific news. This will help you make well-informed decisions based on reliable information.

        

      Remember, investing involves risks, and there are no guarantees in the market. It's important to do your own research, consider your risk tolerance, and consult with a financial advisor if needed.

      Please note: The above information is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial or investment advice. Trading decisions should be based on your individual circumstances and risk tolerance.

      08-31
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  • 股勇者
    ·08-31
    apply 10-15% range options strategies for Sep n Oct.
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  • Aqa
    ·08-31
    September Effect is coming again! Will the CPI release on September 11 have an impact on the Fed's rate cut decision on September 18? It is time to be cautiously optimistic in stock trading. Stock prices have ended last Friday, the last trading day of August, on the high. That officially end the turbulent month higher, expecting the U.S. data to set stage for rate cut. Do remember to do all due diligence before trade. Thanks @Tiger_comments
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  • GenPeiPei
    ·09-01
    Holding till Q4 results come out.
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