Market Enters Extreme Greed! Trump Letters May Push Volatility Higher?
Trump sends “Tariff Notice Letters” to 14 countries. Trump said: “We have over 170 countries. Negotiating with each one is too complicated—sending letters is much easier.” According to him, the new round of tariffs could range from 10% to 70%, and will officially take effect on August 1. He also added that “dozens of letters” will be sent out this week.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and South Korean President Lee Jae-myung are among the first recipients of these "Trump letters."
On July 7, Trump announced on his social media platform Truth Social that the U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Japan and South Korea starting August 1, 2025.
This Wednesday, July 9, marks the deadline for the current tariff suspension. According to The Wall Street Journal, with the deadline looming, Trump needs to finalize a round of trade deals before then, or dozens of countries could once again face tariff penalties.
But on Tuesday, China warned the Donald Trump administration against reigniting trade tensions by reinstating tariffs on its goods from August, and threatened to retaliate against nations that strike deals with the United States to exclude China from their supply chains.
Meanwhile, the market is in extreme greed mode, with both the indexes and many individual stocks hitting record highs. But yesterday, Trump’s renewed tariff talk sent $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ surging 8%.
Aside from that, there wasn’t much good news on the stock front:
Musk’s launch of the “American Party” dragged $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ down sharply.
$Apple(AAPL)$ also pulled back 1.69% yesterday.
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ is hovering around its all-time high at $160.
What Do You Think?
Would you go long on volatility now? $ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF(UVXY)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$
Thinking of buying Tesla puts?
What strategy do you use to hedge your positions?
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與此同時，市場在極度貪婪模式，指數和多隻個股均創歷史新高。但昨天，特朗普重啓關稅談話發出$芝加哥期權交易所波動率指數(VIX)$飆升8%。
I’m also considering Tesla puts. Musk’s political ambitions, like launching the “American Party,” are adding distractions and potential headline risk to TSLA. The stock has already pulled back, and if market sentiment shifts further, it could drop faster than many expect. Puts offer a cost-effective hedge without touching my core positions.
Overall, I’m going defensive. A mix of volatility plays, Tesla puts, and trimming risk in sensitive sectors helps me stay ready for turbulence. I’m still long-term bullish.
@TigerStars @Tiger_comments
I wouldn’t buy put Tesla because we will never know how long musk will be distracted with the political party that he wants to form, managing it as well as his grudge with trump. Also, Tesla has recently had disappointing sales in many markets and with the intense competition with other companies, I don’t see Tesla performing.
I would prefer to continue to invest in ETFs and consider swing trading with this volatility. For ETFs and companies that are fundamentally sound, I would buy the dip. Afterall, when taco happens, the stock will rise again.
日本首相石破茂和韓國總統李在明是這些“川普信”的首批收件人。
我目前确实在考虑加码波动性工具，比如小仓位布局 $UVXY$ 或直接买入 $VIX$ 指数看涨期权。不是为了博涨，而是纯粹对冲系统性回调的可能。
至于特斯拉，我觉得不急着抄底。反而在这个阶段，买入短期的看跌期权（Put）是相对聪明的防守策略，特别是在它技术面刚刚跌破短期支撑的时候，回调空间未必小。
整体而言，我的核心策略是“中性偏空”——维持主仓，但搭配Protective Put，同时适度做多波动率工具，给组合上个“保险”。现在最怕的不是下跌，而是毫无征兆的剧烈波动。