Exchange Gemini vs. RWA Figure: Who is Next Circle in IPO Race?
AI, crypto, and the $15B IPO boom—JPMorgan expects fundraising to hit nearly $40B this year, far above last year’s $27.5B.
In the past two weeks, both Figure and Gemini filed for IPOs. After $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ , who will be the next star to reshape the industry?
$Gemini Group Global Corp.(GMNI)$: With a large user base, how long will it take to reach profitability?
Gemini is underwritten by Goldman Sachs, Citi, and Morgan Stanley. It plans to sell 16.67M shares at $17–19 each, raising $317M.
H1 revenue: $67.9M, but net loss ballooned to $282.5M. Over 65% of revenue still comes from trading fees—directly hit by the downturn in crypto volumes.
Despite 14.6M users and $18B in assets under custody, Gemini carries $2.1B in debt. Valuation may only reach $5–10B, far below Coinbase’s IPO peak.
But can compliance halo offset mounting losses?
Figure: Is the RWA track full of potential, just like a “mini Circle”?
Figure’s core is real-world asset (RWA) tokenization—using the Provenance chain to help businesses improve liquidity from accounts receivable, drastically boosting financing efficiency.
H1 revenue: $191M, with $29.1M net profit—successfully turned profitable. It’s approved in 32 U.S. states, with a solid legal foundation. Earnings quality is stable, less dependent on market trading volumes—making Figure highly resilient.
While $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ shares plunged 27% on falling trading volumes, Figure’s profitability and blue-ocean market make its valuation logic closer to Circle’s early stablecoin ecosystem.
Who can ride Circle’s wave?
Circle’s success came from compliance, institutional clients, and profit model optimization.
Gemini looks more like a “mini Coinbase”—big losses but with user and custody base.
Figure precisely targets RWAs, potentially becoming the bridge between blockchain and the real economy.
With Bitcoin spot ETFs now accounting for 45% of trading volume, institutional capital is reshaping the market. Gemini’s custody advantage vs. Figure’s RWA innovation—who can truly replicate Circle’s path?
💬 Discussion Zone:
Can Gemini uphold the banner of a compliant exchange, or will losses drag it down?
Will Figure’s RWA model become the next trillion-dollar track?
In the coming IPO boom, do you favor the exchange model or the RWA model?
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@Abaaa @linkoog @BillyR @koolgal
The RWA model pioneered by Figure (especially via blockchain-based lending and tokenized mortgages) is one of the top contenders for trillion-dollar scale—but regulatory navigation and institutional buy-in will determine how fast it grows.
Strategically, the RWA model has higher long-term upside, while the exchange model offers more immediate cash flow and scalability—but is also more saturated.
@ANGGA
- *Pioneering new use cases*: Companies innovating in areas like blockchain-based financial services or decentralized applications.
- *Demonstrating strong growth*: Firms with robust revenue growth and a clear path to profitability might attract investor attention
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Zara
@Zara @WILDHAN
- *Ripple*: Known for its cross-border payment solutions and significant market presence.
- *Kraken*: A well-established cryptocurrency exchange with a strong user base.
- *Gemini's potential growth*: As a crypto exchange that has already filed for an IPO, Gemini might be an interesting company to watch
@koolgal @orsiri @Mattboi
As Trump Media showers Crypto.com with billions, Gemini has been left to prove that integrity still matters.
Gemini is not chasing hype. It is chasing legitimacy. The Big Question is can Gemini, a principled exchange survive in a market that rewards hype?
Gemini's bet is bold. If it lands, it rewrites the crypto playbook. If it doesn't, Gemini becomes a cautionary tale.
Gemini's IPO is a tactical bet on those investors who are bold as it could reward them with a huge win but it could also go the opposite way too.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @CaptainTiger @TigerClub
Why it matters:
Real assets made liquid and transparent.
Finance, opened to everyone, not just institutions.
A trillion dollar track where legacy meets Web3.
If Figure succeeds it won't just digitise wealth - it will democratise it. RWAs are the quiet revolution and Figure is setting the trend.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @CaptainTiger @TigerClub @Tiger_SG
On the other hand, figure’s rwa seems more trustable and novel that I can see investors buying its stock. With its profitability and potential future exponential growth if it truly becomes the bridge between blockchain and the real economy, it will be the darling of investors. Many are looking for this bridge where blockchain will have real applications and will help fuel the growth of Figure. It is the most similar to circle where the prospects are there and I find the business model more convincing than circle. So, I definitely favour figure over Gemini. @Success88 @HelenJanet @Universe宇宙 @Kaixiang @SR050321 @DiAngel @Fenger1188 @SPOT_ON come join
上半年收入：6790萬美元，但淨虧損飆升至2.825億美元。超過65%的收入仍然來自交易費用——直接受到加密貨幣交易量低迷的打擊。
儘管擁有1460萬用戶和18B美元的託管資產，Gemini卻揹負着21億美元的債務。估值可能僅達到$5-10B，遠低於Coinbase的IPO峯值。