Jan Review: Gold/Silver/Bitcoin Crash —Is February for Buying or Bailing?
January trading has come to a close! While the three major U.S. indices finished in the green, the "Precious Metals Massacre" and the major leadership change at the Fed made this a highly unusual start to the year.
January Recap: S&P's "January Barometer," but Tech is Lagging?
In terms of historical win rates, January lived up to its reputation:
$S&P 500(.SPX)$: Up 1.37% (consistent with its 62% win rate since 1928).
$Dow Jones(.DJI)$ : The strongest performer, gaining 1.73% as value and blue-chip stocks took the lead.
$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$: Up only 0.95%, looking noticeably sluggish.
Despite the "January Barometer" flashing a green light for the year, the underperformance of tech stocks suggests that capital is being re-priced. The market is searching for a new narrative.
Month-End Earthquake: Gold/Silver Collapse, Bitcoin Stumbles
The end of January was nothing short of breathtaking. The primary trigger: Trump’s plan to nominate Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve.
Black Friday for Precious Metals:
$XAG/USD(XAGUSD.FOREX)$ : Plunged 26%, its largest historical drop! $SLV trading volume exploded past $40 billion.
$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ : Dropped 9%, suffering its worst single-day performance in over a decade.
A surging Dollar fueled by expectations for the new Fed Chair, combined with a market that was overstretched after weeks of endless rallying. The bubble popped instantly.
Crypto: $Bitcoin(BTC.USD.CC)$ fell to $74,600 (a 10-month low), while Ethereum retreated to levels not seen since June 2025. The anticipation of tighter liquidity is hitting risk assets hard.
February Outlook: Can the "January Effect" Hold?
1. Will "As Goes January, So Goes the Year" ring true?
Historically, a positive January suggests a bullish year. However, don't forget: After last year's January rise, the market saw three consecutive months of decline. Given the complexity of geopolitical shifts and the Fed's leadership transition, February may be a period of digestion for the "Warsh Shockwave."
2. Gold & Silver: Buying Opportunity or Falling Knife? The long-term case for gold (as a hedge and inflation shield) hasn't vanished, but the short-term technicals are severely damaged.
Let's Discuss:
Do you think this deep dive in Gold/Silver is a "Golden Pit" buying opportunity?
With tech underperforming, are you trimming your exposure to Big Tech in February?
Will 2026 follow the "January Barometer" to a bullish finish, or are we in for a repeat of last year's Q1 pullback?
How do you review earnings performance in Jan.?
Drop your thoughts in the comments below, and let's get ready for February!
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
That is why deep dives in Gold and Silver often feel like a Golden Pit - terrifying on the way down but historically rewarding for anyone brave enough to climb in with a shovel and a long term view.
If you believe in Gold and Silver as insurance against human overreaction , then January's drop looks less like danger and more like a big sale.
I am ready to climb in with my shovel and start digging in to find my Golden Pit. My future self will thank me.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @CaptainTiger @TigerClub
The collapse in gold & silver looked like a crowded trade unwinding fast, driven by a stronger dollar & expectations of a more hawkish Fed under Kevin Warsh. Crypto selling alongside precious metals reinforces the same message: liquidity assumptions are changing, speculative assets are feeling the pressure first.
Heading into February, I’m staying cautious. A positive January is historically supportive, but it doesn’t rule out near-term digestion, especially with a Fed leadership shift. I’m not rushing to buy gold or silver yet & on tech I’m staying selective — trimming excess exposure & focusing on earnings quality rather than chasing the bounce.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub
The most telling stat of January isn't the Gold crash, but the Nasdaq's sluggishness (+0.95%). When the market leaders (Big Tech) start lagging behind blue chips ($Dow Jones(.DJI)$ ), it’s usually a signal that the "easy money" phase is over.The "Warsh Shockwave" is a wake-up call that liquidity conditions might tighten faster than priced in. This explains the synchronized sell-off in zero-yield assets like Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin ($74k).Feb Outlook: I suspect February will be a choppy month of digestion. I am trimming high-beta tech exposure and holding more cash to see if the "January Effect" was a false signal. Safety first! 🛡️$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$
密碼：$比特幣(BTC.USD.CC)$跌到$74,600（10個月低點），而以太幣則回落至2025年6月以來的最高水平。流動性收緊的預期正在重創風險資產。
$標普500(.SPX)$：向上1.37%（與其1928年以來62%的勝率一致）。
$道瓊斯(.DJI)$：表現最強的，獲得1.73%隨着價值和藍籌股領漲。
$納斯達克(.IXIC)$：僅向上0.95%，看起來明顯呆滯。
儘管“一月晴雨表”爲今年亮起了綠燈，但科技股的表現不佳表明資本正在重新定價。市場正在尋找新的敘事。
Big Tech: Take 10-15% off the table if you are up significantly. Re-allocate to "Value" or "Defensive" (like the ex-dividend stocks we discussed).
Market Sentiment: Stay bullish for the long term, but expect February to be a "choppy" month where the market "digests" the January gains.
可能是一个买入机会，但不是一个激进的机会。抛售更多是由强制平仓推动的，而不是基本面疲软。黄金的结构性支撑仍然完好无损，尽管近期可能会出现波动。逐渐积累是优选的。由于投机，白银仍然面临更高的风险。
二月的大型科技公司
选择性修剪是有意义的。表现不佳表明领导疲劳，而不是一个破碎的人工智能故事。减少拥挤、完全有价值的名称有助于管理集中风险，同时保持核心风险。
2026年1月晴雨表
支持，但不是决定性的。政策不确定性和跨资产波动性表明第一季度将出现波动。回调并不排除建设性的2026年。
一月份收益
坚实但不均匀。指导比节拍更重要。市场奖励清晰，惩罚脆弱，强化选股者的市场。
But markets don't care about folklore. They care about earnings, liquidity and macro headlines.
Last year's Q1 pullback was a reminder that early year optimism can evaporate faster than a New Year 's resolution. Could 2026 repeat that pattern? Absolutely. Could it also rebound into a bullish finish? Also absolutely.
January didn't give us a prophecy. It gave us a warning - the kind that says "Handle with emotional discipline".
But here is the truth: One month in a time capsule means nothing. Not when investing is about compounding, patience and refusing to let short term drama interrupt our long term destiny.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerClub @CaptainTiger