To The Moon

$Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$  I am bullish on QQQ the next upcoming week. We are breaking out of consolidation and heading for all time highs. Dow and Spy have already hit new all time highs and QQQ will likely continue to new ATH as well.  There is breadth in the market now with smaller names notching gains, not just the magnificent 7. That will help push the broad index up.  As long term interest rates fall, money market funds will be less attractive to investors and they will rotate their funds to equities. This will be FOMO money and push up the stock market to really overbought levels.  Expect to see Very Greedy on the fear and greed index before any pull back in mid Jan.  Good Luck Investors

Yes wow Christmas is early 

In the whimsical world of holiday-themed financial predictions, the notion of Santa hitting the streets of the stock market is more metaphorical than literal. This concept, often referred to as the "Santa Claus Rally," is a phenomenon where the stock market experiences a positive trend during the final weeks of December. While this idea is not grounded in hard economic theory, it has captured the imagination of investors and analysts alike. The Santa Claus Rally is essentially a historical pattern rather than a reliable predictor of market movements. Many attribute the phenomenon to increased consumer spending during the holiday season, positive sentiment, and a general sense of optimism that tends to prevail as the year comes to a close. Investors may be inclined to buy stocks in anticipa

Will next year will be the great year 

On tuesday, the market responded with modest gains despite a tepid inflation report, signaling that the report did not exert significant pressure on the Federal Reserve to implement a final rate hike. The $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ led the day's performance with a 0.7% increase, while the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both posted gains of approximately 0.5%. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) release provided a mixed picture, with headline price growth dipping slightly to a 3.1% annual increase, primarily due to lower gasoline prices. However, the core CPI, excluding volatile categories, accelerated to a 0.3% pace, maintaining a year-over-year rise of 4%, double the Fed's 2% inflation targe

Since being included in the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ index, the stock price of $Lululemon Athletica(LULU)$ has continued to rise. Despite not experiencing a significant jump on the quarterly earnings report on December 8th, it reached a new all-time high during the day's trading.Currently, LULU has a price-to-earnings ratio of 44 times, which, although lower than the 60+ times at the beginning of the year, is still the highest in the apparel industry (ahead of $Nike(NKE)$ 36 times). Can this valuation support the stock price?First, let's look at the growth rate. LULU used to heavily rely on in-store sales because its clothing was difficult to purchase online and requir

$Oracle(ORCL)$ fell nearly 9% after its 24FYQ2 fiscal report on Monday after market close.The main reason for the decline was underperformance: Q2 revenue was $12.9 billion, with a YoY growth rate of only 5.4%, and lower than the market's expected $13.05 billion. Earnings per share were $1.34, slightly higher than the market's average expectation of $1.32.Total cloud revenue was $4.8 billion, with a growth rate of 1.6%, while the market expected $4.86 billion.Remaining performance obligations were $65 billion, with a YoY increase of 6.2%, exceeding annual revenue.However, the market was not satisfied with these results because the growth rate of the cloud business was already set very low and still fell short of expectations, considering the signi

According to Wall Street Journal, private equity groups Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital Management have proposed a $5.8 billion offer to take $Macy's(M)$ private, which means a $21 per share.Based on current information, these two private equity firms already hold some Macy's stock. Looking at the stock price trend over the past month, the increase after the financial report is far beyond other companies in the industry, such as $Nordstrom(JWN)$ $Wal-Mart(WMT)$, $Target(TGT)$ etc. This indicates that the private equity group had already established positions well in advance.It's no wonder that Macy's has been soaring a

December FOMC meeting is coming, with the last suspenseful suspense of the year being revealed. Rate hikes are definitely over, and the market is just betting on how much longer the Fed's "Higher For Longer" will last. According to CME interest rate trading, the market is betting on five rate cuts (25bps each time) throughout the year 2024, starting from March.And over the past month, the long-term US Treasury bond yield quickly dropped from 5% to 4.2%, becoming the main driving force behind the performance of assets including US bonds, stock markets, gold, and cryptocurrencies. So, what might be the stance of the Federal Reserve at the December FOMC meeting?We anticipate:1. No further interest rate hikes, maintaining the current level of rates, in line with market expectations.2. An upwar

$OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP(O39.SI)$ Bullish soon 

S&P500 and Nasdaq continued their rally and clinched their highest closing levels since early 2022. The S&P500 is now up a whopping 20% this year. Investors are believing that we are about to have a soft landing scenario. So, can the Federal Reserve really pull off a soft landing, or has 2023’s recession been postponed till 2024? Let’s discuss them in my latest video. Have lots of things to share for my options trades. Interested viewers please stay throughout the video! Stocks covered in the video (technical analysis) – SPY, Apple, Tesla, Google + Option trades  ======== Soft Landing or Recession? [US Stock Market Analysis] https://youtu.be/1cOjWQvN9xQ$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ

Is the market slowing down??

Price action! - 6th week of positive in a row!! - 4.45% away from All Time High! - Stayed above Fibonacci retrace 78.6 of the bear flag from 2022 Bear - RSI at 63 (some room to go to 70) Upcoming key week! - Tuesday 12 Dec - CPI! Will it be hot? ==> Am seeing cooler with the consideration of oil price in the previous read - Wed 13 Dec - FOMC! Any rate hikes? ==> Am seeing no hikes and only cuts upcoming in 2024 - Wed 13 Dec - PPI! Hot? Might be over-shadowed by CPI and FOMC Dec Summary of Economic Projection (SEP) Is very important! - Why? Look for the FED projection on 2024 rates. The figure will determine how many cuts they are projecting! - Why significant? Market is now projecting 5 cuts, so if FED shows less than 5 cuts, there will be sell off Technicals - Staying above Fib 7

Thanks to Tiger for awarding the weekly top predictions for QQQ. Stocks finished higher Friday, with the S&P 500 notching its highest level of 2023. CPI next Tuesday and Fed pause could propel the index into Santa rally by year end 🥳 The S&P 500 posted its highest close of the year last week, but had yet to exceed its 2023 intraday high set in July until Friday, when it topped 4,609 in afternoon trading. The benchmark is now up about 20% on the year and trading at its highest level back to March 2022. November’s nonfarm payrolls report showed an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate. The jobless rate fell to 3.7% in November from 3.9% the prior month. It was expected to remain the same. The economy added 199,000 jobs, slightly ahead of the 190,000 estimate from Dow Jo

Public Holidays No public holidays in the coming week for Hong Kong, China, Singapore and the USA. Economic Calendar (11 Dec 2023) Notable Highlights Fed’s interest rate decision should dominate the headlines in the coming week. We can expect to be volatile leading to this announcement. Auction of Treasury note and bond. This deserves some attention as this is deemed a relatively safe asset class. This is used to finance the deficits incurred by the Federal government. CPI. This is the common indicator used to reflect inflation. This should be the next most closely watched data which has significant implications for the Fed’s coming interest rate decisions. Retail Sales & Core Retail Sales - this is an indication of consumer health. Initial Jobless Claims - This is a reflection on t

As the clock ticks down on the upcoming FOMC review next week, the market is increasingly pricing in an eventual end to the monetary tightening cycle to rein in a sticky inflation not seen in decades. High borrowing costs have been weighing on high-growth stocks and depressed their valuations, as their incoming cash flows tend to be more distant. Hence, a halt to the rate hikes would bode well for stocks on high growth projectiles, and they may finally heave a sigh of relief. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ has been a stellar performer with a threefold boost in its share price year to date, amidst speculations of an eventual approval by the US Securities and Exchange Commission of an inaugural spot price-based bitcoin

No I believe the average consumer is so disenchanted and are facing burnout from the hectic political problems that Biden is creating. The continual demands by the Biden administration on there wallet/purses people are wary. And they know that the turmoil will keep going and the constant demands for climate change and other projects home heating  increases in taxes and services. On top of this the volatility on the oil and groceries energy costs for the home. I believe the average consume will leave there wallets at home Inflation and interest rates will be the grinch that steals Christmas

 News of a pause in interest rate hikes or a possible rate cut into the new year 2024 saw stocks hitting new highs. I believe this upward uptrend in the S&P 500 and the DOW would continue its push upwards in December.  For the past 21 years, the first half of the December month has seen the S&P 500 and the Russell 1000 trading sideways. A modest rally in the first week of the past 21 Decembers gave way going into the middle of the month. However, from about the 20th of December, stocks rallied. For many years the Santa Claus rally began on 23rd Devember and lasted into 2nd January of the following year. The S&P 500 gained 1.3% on average during that festive seven day period. As seen in the past 21 years, I would be buying stocks on the dips till about 20th December an

$Broadcom(AVGO)$ fell about 3% in after-hours trading on Thursday, just after announcing its Q4 earnings following the completion of its acquisition of $VMware(VMW)$ . Although the earnings exceeded expectations and the guidance for the next fiscal year was strong, there was no upward momentum.In terms of Q4 earnings, total revenue was $9.3 billion, higher than the market's expected $9.28 billion. Semiconductor solutions revenue was $7.33 billion, higher than the expected $7.27 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3%. Infrastructure software reached $1.97 billion, a 7% increase from the previous year. Operating activities generated $4.82 billion in cash, with capital expenditures of approximately $105 milli

With the end of the year approaching, major institutions begin to provide outlook for US stock market in 2024.According to some reports released so far, most institutions are slightly more optimistic this year compared with the widespread concerns last year.We have selected three outlook reports from David J. Kostin team of Goldman Sachs, Michael J Wilson team of Morgan Stanley and the Mark Haefele team of UBS.Let’s look at their forecasts for the US stock next year, as well as their analyses and judgment on important issues and directions.Forecasts for S&P 500; Chart made by Tiger_Insights1. Up or down? US stocks growth forecast for 2024It is difficult to accurately predict the rising/falling points of US stocks next year. It is common for institutions to be "prove

US slips into Recession in 2024? For much of 2022, recession fears have been building against a sharp rise in interest rates and market uncertainty. Of late, has there been a shift in sentiment. With a resilient US economy, a growing number of investors are seeing an increasing likelihood of a “soft landing” —where the Fed raises interest rates to combat inflation without triggering a recession. However, many remain cautious. Below shows US economic forecasts for 2024, across (1) Wall Street, (2) Main Street, & (3) C-Suite. Do you recall, In July 2023 the Fed announced that they were no longer forecasting a recession in 2024, marking a sharp departure from earlier projections. On hindsight, does the Fed know what they were talking about 4 months ago? While the Fed staff continue to

In 2023, all kinds of financial products on a global scale have undergone tremendous challenges. We have also seen many unprecedented financial phenomena. This requires us, as a cross-border financial institution, to carefully observe and meditate. It seems like only yesterday that I was writing about the top ten predictions for 2023, but the year has passed quickly.I remember when I first joined Morgan Stanley to work on Wall Street after graduating with a Ph.D. from the University of Lausanne in Switzerland over two decades ago. Each year-end, we would study the top ten global economic predictions for the coming year by the company's Chief US Economist, Byron Wien. The debates between him and Steven Roach, Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist at the time, on macroeconomic topics were immense

Led by the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$, all major U.S. stock indexes have risen almost continuously over the past month - with gains generally as high as about 8-10% in November.The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ gained 8.9% in November, the 18th biggest monthly advance since 1950. and this was the 10th-best month for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ in nearly 40 years.A review of some of the reasons for the rise in U.S. stocks in November:1.Macro interest rate environment easingThe market is optimistic that interest rates have peaked and the Federal Reserve will shift to easing policies. Indicators such as the $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ an

By EWFLuisThe Santa rally is a capital market phenomenon named in 1972 by Yale Hirsc. He noticed an unusual upward movement in the markets from December 28 to January 2 of the following year. This event has been recurrent for years that it has earned its own name “The Santa Rally”. According to the Stock Trader Almanac, since 1896 the Dow Jones gained an average of 1.7% during this period obtaining a positive return 77% of the time.The Santa rally is not a guaranteed occurrence and it doesn’t happen every year. It is more of a historical pattern or trend that traders and investors have noticed over time. The reasons behind the Santa Rally are not entirely clear, and various factors may contribute to it. Some theories suggest that the holiday season tends to bring about positive sentiment a

Public Holidays No public holidays in the coming week for Hong Kong, China, Singapore and the USA. Economic Calendar (11 Dec 2023) Notable Highlights Fed’s interest rate decision should dominate the headlines in the coming week. We can expect to be volatile leading to this announcement. Auction of Treasury note and bond. This deserves some attention as this is deemed a relatively safe asset class. This is used to finance the deficits incurred by the Federal government. CPI. This is the common indicator used to reflect inflation. This should be the next most closely watched data which has significant implications for the Fed’s coming interest rate decisions. Retail Sales & Core Retail Sales - this is an indication of consumer health. Initial Jobless Claims - This is a reflection on t

After peaking at the end of October, US bond yields have been decreasing steadily, and trading in long-term has become "crowded". The reasons are clear:1. Recent US economic data does not support further interest rate hikes, and the pace of economic slowdown may even be faster than expected. This also increases the risk of "staying at the current interest rate level for longer". CPI is already a lagging indicator, reflecting macro trends from a previous period. Powell is very cautious and would rather miss out than predict (market predictions) in advance, so the market always moves ahead of policy.2. Long-term US bonds with yields over 5% are rare, and in addition to common asset allocation demands, they also attract some speculative traders. The liquidity of long-term bonds is not as good

With the long-term US Treasury bond yields falling to their lowest level in three months, US long-term bond ETFs have seen a unilateral rise. ETFs such as $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ $Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares(TMF)$ $ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury(TBT)$ $ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury(UBT)$ $Direxion Daily 20 Year Plus Treasury Bear 3x Shares(TMV)$ that offer leveraged long and short positions on US bond indexes, have all presented significant opportunities. In addition to direct investments in US Treasury bonds, ETFs such as

Big-Tech’s PerformanceNovember last week, bond yield continued to decline, pushing the stock market further high, but the need for consolidation or downturn is inevitable.On the trading day of November 30th, $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ experienced a correction, while the $DJIA(.DJI)$ surged, showing clear divergence.Big-techs’ performance in the past week (until Nov 30th): $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ (+2.51%), which had the largest decline the previous week, followed by $Microsoft(MSFT)$ (+0.28%); all the rest declined, including $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ (-0.42%);

Thanks to Tiger for awarding the weekly top predictions for QQQ. Stocks finished higher Friday, with the S&P 500 notching its highest level of 2023. CPI next Tuesday and Fed pause could propel the index into Santa rally by year end 🥳 The S&P 500 posted its highest close of the year last week, but had yet to exceed its 2023 intraday high set in July until Friday, when it topped 4,609 in afternoon trading. The benchmark is now up about 20% on the year and trading at its highest level back to March 2022. November’s nonfarm payrolls report showed an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate. The jobless rate fell to 3.7% in November from 3.9% the prior month. It was expected to remain the same. The economy added 199,000 jobs, slightly ahead of the 190,000 estimate from Dow Jo

Since being included in the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ index, the stock price of $Lululemon Athletica(LULU)$ has continued to rise. Despite not experiencing a significant jump on the quarterly earnings report on December 8th, it reached a new all-time high during the day's trading.Currently, LULU has a price-to-earnings ratio of 44 times, which, although lower than the 60+ times at the beginning of the year, is still the highest in the apparel industry (ahead of $Nike(NKE)$ 36 times). Can this valuation support the stock price?First, let's look at the growth rate. LULU used to heavily rely on in-store sales because its clothing was difficult to purchase online and requir

In early Asian trading on Monday, gold surged by $70, breaking through $2100 and approaching $2150, reaching a new all-time high. The underlying logic behind this is that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle may have ended, and expectations of a rate cut continue to rise.According to CME's Fed watch tools, the market shows that the probability of the end of the Fed's rate hike cycle is almost 100%. The probability of the first rate cut in March 2024 has risen to 52%, and the futures market expects a 125bp rate cut for the whole year of 2024.Rate-Cut in Advance?Bill Ackman, a prominent figure in the financial industry, believes that the Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates in Q1 due to a faster-than-expected decrease in inflation. However, over the past two weeks, asse

$Salesforce.com(CRM)$ announced its Q3 earnings report for the 2024 fiscal year ending on October 31, 2023. As the market had already raised revenue expectations, this quarter's performance was almost in line with market expectations. However, the company still raised guidance for the next quarter, causing the stock price to rise by 11%+ after hours.In fact, CRM's stock has risen nearly 100% this year, making it one of the top performers among the Magnificent 7 and also one of the best performers in the S&P 500. The stock's jump this year is mainly due to better-than-expected performance and guidance, making it the leading software company in the AI market.Investment highlights Several companies' earnings reports showing that the macroeconomic

$Bilibili Inc.(BILI)$ plunged more than 12% after announcing its Q3 financial report, as investors have serious doubts about its commercialization capabilities despite cost reduction efforts leading to decreased losses. $BILIBILI-W(09626)$ In terms of performance, the revenue was 5.81 billion yuan, a mere 0.2% increase compared to the same period last year, meeting expectations but ranking at the bottom among Chinese concept stocks that released their Q3 financial reports. The mobile gaming segment continued to be weak, with a 33% year-on-year decrease but an 11% increase compared to the previous quarter. Advertising business showed growth of over 20%, which is similar to the industry average since Bilib

With reassuring remarks by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell that the world's largest economy appears to be heading towards a soft landing, avoiding an initially much feared recession, the market has heaved a sigh of relief last week. The Fed has so far managed to put inflation under control while maintaining a high employment rate, although it may be too early to call for a celebration, as the fight against inflation is still on. In fact, the Fed Chair has also cautioned against speculation over rate cuts soon to lend a hand to a slowing economy, calling the rate cuts premature. Further rate hikes remain on the Fed's cards if the inflation remains sticky and appears to be building inertia against the Fed's long-term target of 2%. Nevertheless, the market has been increasing pricing in continuat

December FOMC meeting is coming, with the last suspenseful suspense of the year being revealed. Rate hikes are definitely over, and the market is just betting on how much longer the Fed's "Higher For Longer" will last. According to CME interest rate trading, the market is betting on five rate cuts (25bps each time) throughout the year 2024, starting from March.And over the past month, the long-term US Treasury bond yield quickly dropped from 5% to 4.2%, becoming the main driving force behind the performance of assets including US bonds, stock markets, gold, and cryptocurrencies. So, what might be the stance of the Federal Reserve at the December FOMC meeting?We anticipate:1. No further interest rate hikes, maintaining the current level of rates, in line with market expectations.2. An upwar

In the whimsical world of holiday-themed financial predictions, the notion of Santa hitting the streets of the stock market is more metaphorical than literal. This concept, often referred to as the "Santa Claus Rally," is a phenomenon where the stock market experiences a positive trend during the final weeks of December. While this idea is not grounded in hard economic theory, it has captured the imagination of investors and analysts alike. The Santa Claus Rally is essentially a historical pattern rather than a reliable predictor of market movements. Many attribute the phenomenon to increased consumer spending during the holiday season, positive sentiment, and a general sense of optimism that tends to prevail as the year comes to a close. Investors may be inclined to buy stocks in anticipa

According to Wall Street Journal, private equity groups Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital Management have proposed a $5.8 billion offer to take $Macy's(M)$ private, which means a $21 per share.Based on current information, these two private equity firms already hold some Macy's stock. Looking at the stock price trend over the past month, the increase after the financial report is far beyond other companies in the industry, such as $Nordstrom(JWN)$ $Wal-Mart(WMT)$, $Target(TGT)$ etc. This indicates that the private equity group had already established positions well in advance.It's no wonder that Macy's has been soaring a

On tuesday, the market responded with modest gains despite a tepid inflation report, signaling that the report did not exert significant pressure on the Federal Reserve to implement a final rate hike. The $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ led the day's performance with a 0.7% increase, while the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both posted gains of approximately 0.5%. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) release provided a mixed picture, with headline price growth dipping slightly to a 3.1% annual increase, primarily due to lower gasoline prices. However, the core CPI, excluding volatile categories, accelerated to a 0.3% pace, maintaining a year-over-year rise of 4%, double the Fed's 2% inflation targe

$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ increased by 10.7%, achieving double-digit gains! $DJIA(.DJI)$ notched a new 2023 high and capped off its best month in more than a year.Have You Profited From Top Stock Gains in Nov.? $Roku Inc(ROKU)$ : +75% $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ : +62% $Block(SQ)$ : +58% $Shopify(SHOP)$ : +54% $Snap Inc(SNAP)$ : +38% $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ : +36% $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ : +35%