To The Moon

July 9th is the last day of tariff pause. But Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-month forecast for the S&P 500 Index from 6,500 to 6,900, and its year-end target from 6,100 to 6,600.

The market seems to trade TACO again. However, yesterday there was a $7 million short bet targeting SPY to drop to $600.

How do you view GS's new PT?

Is TACO and early rate cuts possible?

How to trade at the crossroads?

🎁Special Notes: Whoever showed up on the” What the Tigers Say” column will receive 100 Tiger Coins and an exclusive interview invitation to honor your contribution.

Click titles to read the full analysis:

1. @yourcelesttyy:

Key Points:

Trading Strategies for the Crossroads

With bullish forecasts and bearish bets colliding, here’s how to position your portfolio:

• Lean Into Growth: Allocate to sectors like technology and consumer discretionary, which tend to rally when rates fall. Think semiconductors or e-commerce names.

• Build a Safety Net: Keep exposure to utilities and healthcare—defensive plays that hold steady during volatility.

• Stay Nimble: Use stop-loss orders or options to cap downside risk. Diversify across equities, bonds, or even gold to spread your bets.

The key is balance: capture upside potential while bracing for surprises.

Goldman’s S&P 500 Targets at a Glance

Here’s how Goldman’s new forecasts stack up:

This shift underscores their growing conviction in the market’s resilience.

Final Take: Play Both Sides Smartly

Goldman Sachs’ upbeat S&P 500 targets paint a promising picture, driven by earnings, rate cuts, and tariff resilience. Yet, the $7 million short bet on SPY reminds us that risks linger. The Taco Trade and early rate cuts could shape the market’s next move, but uncertainty calls for caution. Blend growth and defense in your trades, keep an eye on Fed signals and tariff headlines, and let risk management guide your path. The crossroads is here—position wisely to come out ahead.

2. @highhand:

Key Points:

I will go with oracle AI propspects and BKNG travel bugs biting everyone to hit higher highs.

3. @Alubin:

Key Points:

I think travel stocks are definitely something to look out for with nowadays people going for travel so frequently.

4. @Shyon:

Key Points:

The mention of the market trading TACO again, alongside a 7 million dollar short bet targeting SPY to drop to 600 dollars yesterday, creates an interesting dynamic. I see TACO as a speculative play that might reflect short-term sentiment, possibly driven by traders anticipating volatility post-tariff pause. The large short position is a concern, as it indicates some bearish sentiment, but I do not let it overshadow Goldman Sachs more bullish outlook. Early rate cuts could play a role here, and if they materialize, they might support the market, making TACO a risky but potentially rewarding trade if timed well.

I believe early rate cuts are possible, especially if economic data softens in the coming months. We are at a pivotal moment where central bank actions could sway the market. If rate cuts occur sooner than expected, they could bolster equity values and support Goldman Sachs higher targets. I am inclined to think this scenario could counteract the short bet pressure, giving the S&P 500 a chance to trend upward. This possibility makes me lean toward a more optimistic trading stance.

At this crossroads, my trading approach would be to balance caution with opportunity. The tariff pause expiration and the short bet suggest potential downside risk, so I would consider hedging my position with options or scaling in gradually. However, Goldman Sachs upgraded targets encourage me to stay engaged, and I might look to buy dips if SPY $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Bullish/看多 holds above key support levels. My strategy would focus on flexibility, ready to capitalize on upward momentum if early rate cuts or positive market reactions emerge.

5. @Barcode:

Key Points:

🗳️ The TACO Doctrine: Trump Always Chickens Out?

Traders are betting he won’t follow through. According to a Barclays poll, over 80% believe the effective tariff rate will settle between 10% and 18%, implying a partial climbdown. That confidence rests on a repeat performance of the now-infamous “Trump Put,” his tendency to reverse course when markets wobble or bond yields spike.

But this time, the White House seems emboldened. Bond yields are stable, inflation expectations have cooled, and the dollar is firm. With consumer inflation forecasts returning to the Fed’s 3% ceiling, the political cost of tariffs has diminished.

🎯 Takeaways and Trade Setups

1. Short-term volatility is masked by index-level calm. Traders are cycling sector-by-sector, rotate or risk being blindsided.

2. Copper and pharma are the barometers. They’ve shown the most sensitivity and could offer both short gamma squeeze setups and mean-reversion plays depending on tariff follow-through.

3. Watch for bond yield stress. If yields spike, the Trump Put may activate again, derailing tariff threats.

4. The tariff floor is now structural. Even if Trump moderates, we’re unlikely to return to sub-5% effective rates. This raises long-term costs, suppresses margins, and could dampen global growth.

🔎 What to Watch Ahead

• Aug. 1 Tariff Activation: A firm deadline this time? Monitor shipping data, customs leaks, and Capitol Hill briefings for early clues.

• Earnings season readthroughs: Will companies guide lower due to input costs or inventory adjustments from tariff noise?

• Dollar Strength: If DXY surges due to tariff-related capital flows, expect pressure on multinationals and EM assets.

6. @Zarkness:

Key Points:

I would prefer to be in safe haven like tiger funds , safer and liquid to be used in need. Tesla is better off buy low sell high , now in middle hard to predict … bets off.

7. @Mickey082024 :

Key Points:

Market Sentiment: Resilient, But Fragile

A key question is whether sentiment supports a sustainable rally. On one hand, institutional flows into equities remain positive, with the latest EPFR data showing $11 billion in inflows to U.S. stock funds last week. Credit markets remain calm, and the yield curve has steepened modestly, a sign that recession fears are easing.

On the other hand, the AAII investor sentiment survey still shows a cautious tone, with bullish sentiment at just 38%, below the long-term average. Hedge fund positioning remains light, and volatility markets reflect elevated hedging activity.

Technical indicators also point to a market at a crossroads. The S&P 500 remains above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, but breadth has weakened. Fewer than 60% of index constituents are trading above their 50-day averages, down from 75% in May. This divergence suggests that while headline indices remain strong, leadership is narrowing — a classic sign of late-cycle dynamics.

Put simply, investors are cautiously optimistic — but fragile. Any further escalation in tariffs or signs of slowing growth could quickly erode confidence.

Are Investors Facing an Opportunity or a Trap?

Against this backdrop, the question remains: is this an opportunity to buy into cyclical sectors at attractive valuations, or a trap laid by unresolved trade tensions and fragile sentiment?

Bulls argue that the market has already priced in much of the tariff risk, and that the underlying fundamentals — strong consumer demand, moderating inflation, robust earnings — support higher equity prices. Goldman’s upgrade reflects this view, suggesting that headline risks are outweighed by the resilience of the U.S. economy.

Bears counter that the S&P 500 is already trading at a forward P/E of over 21, leaving little margin for error if trade tensions escalate or if retaliatory tariffs hit corporate profits harder than expected. The elevated VIX and weak market breadth hint at an underlying fragility that could quickly unravel if conditions worsen.

For individual investors, the choice depends on risk tolerance and time horizon. Those with a long-term perspective and appetite for volatility may find select opportunities in undervalued cyclical sectors. But shorter-term traders should remain cautious, as headline-driven swings are likely to continue.

8. @Lanceljx:

Key Points:

Hedging & Asset Protection Considerations:

1. Equity Portfolio

Reduce exposure to sectors vulnerable to tariffs (e.g. semiconductors, autos, consumer electronics).

Consider rotating into defensive sectors such as utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples.

Hedge through inverse ETFs (e.g., SDS, SQQQ) or sector-specific puts.

2. Volatility Hedge

The rise in the VIX suggests markets are bracing for turbulence. You may:

Buy VIX call options or ETFs like VIXY or UVXY to hedge short-term equity drawdowns.

Use collar strategies (long puts + short calls) on concentrated holdings.

3. Currency Risk

Expect potential yen and won weakness, especially if capital outflows accelerate. Hedging via USDJPY or USDKRW positions may help insulate your portfolio if you hold Asia-exposed assets.

4. Commodities & Precious Metals

Gold and silver often benefit from geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty. A modest allocation to GLD, SLV, or physical bullion may offer protection.

5. Fixed Income

U.S. Treasuries (e.g. TLT, IEF) could perform well if risk-off sentiment grows. Consider laddering exposure or using bonds as ballast.

Questions for you:

How do you view GS's new PT?

Is TACO and early rate cuts possible?

How to trade at the crossroads?

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⏰Duration

• 16 July (24pm EDT)