To The Moon

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!1. $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ Gold Technical AnalysisGold prices appear to have entered a consolidation phase, as buyers failed to break through the previous all-time high of $4,381 and challenge the $4,400 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that bullish momentum is waning, with the RSI retreating from overbought territory.With the daily closing price falling below $4,350, the first support level is at $4,300. A breach below this level could test the December 11 high of $4,285, with further support near $4,250. A sustained decline could then extend toward $4,200. Trading recommendation: M

The U.S. stock market saw a pullback, and while a decline in equity indices is entirely normal, an intraday headline made the move particularly noteworthy. Markets had largely assumed the next Federal Reserve Chair would be White House chief economic adviser Kevin Hassett. However, last Friday (local time), President Trump said that as he considers a successor to Powell, he is leaning toward “two Kevins”—Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett. Although Hassett has been viewed as the front-runner, Trump noted that after a 45-minute White House meeting with Warsh on Wednesday, Warsh has also entered his top tier of preferred candidates. That news contributed to a pullback in U.S. equity indices, suggesting that markets view Warsh as a relatively hawkish option whose comments may be amplified further,

Year-end is usually a quiet period, when markets thin out and traders take time off—but hold on and get through this week first. For FX traders in particular, after several years of dull price action, the key that could set a major move in motion for 2026 may well be this week.​More specifically, beyond the Bank of Japan’s impending rate hike, close attention also needs to be paid to possible shifts in monetary policy at the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. If the major G7 central banks all choose to bring their easing cycles to an end, while the United States—under a new Fed chair in the future—moves against that trend, then the trend driven by rate differentials/spread differentials could be enormous.​The U.S. Dollar Index has already shown signs of weakening across 2025; s

Be cautious: this week, both U.S. equities and the two most crowded assets—gold and silver—are sitting in a fragile equilibrium of “high prices + low volatility + high leverage.” On top of that, the headline calendar includes Quadruple witching day, a Bank of Japan rate hike, and the return of the previously paused U.S. nonfarm payrolls release—factors that make a meaningful volatility expansion highly likely. In such an environment, any one-way bet can easily be whipsawed as take-profit and stop-loss orders get triggered repeatedly.​In these conditions—especially before the Bank of Japan announces its policy decision—the priority should shift away from trying to be “right” on a single directional call. The focus should be on protecting earlier gains and controlling drawdowns, because the

As possibly the most critical week toward year-end, the Fed’s 25‑basis‑point rate cut this week is already common knowledge. This means the market now needs new information to trigger meaningful volatility. Some believe Chair Powell may announce a bond‑buying program, while others expect a highly dovish outlook at the press conference. However, given that Powell is set to step down in May next year, doing nothing may actually be the best option.​From recent market behavior, even though monetary policy no longer dominates as it once did, investors still generally accept the logic that rate cuts equal easier financial conditions, which in turn are positive for markets. Following this line of reasoning, announcing Treasury purchases or signaling a more dovish path for next year would both be

Many people may not yet have noticed that the current market is showing a very intriguing and seemingly contradictory pattern. On one hand, bond market pricing suggests that investors do not believe the Federal Reserve, even after its leadership change, can smoothly and quickly transition into a clearly dovish policy environment. On the other hand, silver prices have hit fresh highs even without any visible squeeze caused by tightness in the physical inventory. The gold–silver ratio has undergone a technical collapse, which implies that market bets on future inflation remain elevated, and silver is very likely front-running a new upcycle in broader commodities.​国内现货白银市场的基差持续走弱，但美白银仍然持续逼空上涨In Chinese physical silver market, the basis has continued to weaken, yet U.S. silver prices are still

A significant market movement for gold and silver is anticipated leading up to the Federal Reserve's final meeting of the year. The market widely expects the Fed to continue cutting interest rates, with some even forecasting another cut in January. However, with the market having already priced in the likely successor to the Fed chair, this meeting is drawing less attention than usual. The primary source of uncertainty may lie in the differing opinions among the voting members. In the near future, the market is likely to focus more on the statements of the "shadow" Fed chair to predict the future path of rate cuts, potentially making the market less sensitive to Fed meetings until the leadership transition is complete.​Gold Awaits a Clearer Path for Rate CutsDespite strong expectations for

Technical Analysis: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ A sustained break above $4,250 is required, along with holding this key level, to regain upward momentum! Gold consolidated sideways after breaking out of the symmetrical triangle pattern, lacking follow-through buying support!On the H4 chart, gold oscillates around the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), indicating neutral short-term momentum. However, the overall uptrend remains intact, with pullbacks likely attracting dip-buying interest.Initial support lies at the lower boundary of the recent consolidation range around $4160-$4170, with further support near the 100-period SMA at $4141.Momentum indicators show a neutral-to-bullish bias: MACD histogram bars are narrowing toward the zero line while main

Last week, silver surged to a new high even as gold’s performance lagged significantly, far exceeding my earlier expectations. In hindsight, this trading and manipulation pattern bears resemblance to that of Ethereum/Bitcoin this year: the larger-cap asset first posts consecutive new highs, followed by a rapid rally in the smaller-cap one to hit an all-time peak. While such fundamentals-defying gains have proven short-lived in the crypto market, one should not go against the prevailing trend.Silver recorded a weekly gain of over 10% last week, and the emergence of a new high means there are no technical reference points to rely on. As long as it trades above the 54.4 level, the market is clearly dominated by bulls. Since its 2022 low around 17.4, silver has seen a rally of more than 300% i

This week, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda delivered his clearest signal so far that the BoJ is likely to raise rates this month. He indicated that the policy board may lift rates soon and specifically emphasized the possibility of taking action at the December BoJ meeting. At the same time, both the Finance Minister and the Economic and Growth Strategy Minister refrained from expressing any opposition, and this shift in stance has driven the implied probability of a December hike in Japan’s interest-rate derivatives market up to more than 80 percent at one point, making it almost a foregone conclusion.More importantly, expectations for this BoJ hike are quietly reshaping the global liquidity landscape and have a high likelihood of triggering broad, cross‑asset volatility in the near ter

Next week marks the start of December, and in overseas markets December is usually a fairly quiet month. When there has already been sufficient volatility in the first eleven months, as long as there is no sudden news in December, institutional traders and fund managers generally trade cautiously in order to avoid overtrading and hurting their year-end performance. This year, volatility has already been large due to global trade and tariff headlines, and with the market also expecting a Fed rate cut in December, price swings in December may be smaller than in November. U.S. equity indices might even enter the Christmas season early, meaning light trading and a lukewarm, directionless market.​Over the weekend, an unverified rumor suddenly spread that Fed Chair Jerome Powell would announce h

Two weeks ago, we discussed that WTI crude oil was trading within a range-bound market, making it suitable for selling weekly WTI put options below the prior low of $55 or holding a short WTI futures position combined with selling weekly put options to construct a covered put strategy for this environment. Investors without access to futures or options can consider energy or crude oil ETFs as an alternative.Bearish Crude Reports Trigger a Sharp Selloff: How to Use Options to Trade a Choppy Market？Since then, WTI crude oil has continued to oscillate and weaken, but it has not yet broken below the $55 level, confirming the effectiveness of the previous strategy. Recently, the price volatility has increased, and WTI crude

Last week’s U.S. non-farm payroll data attracted widespread attention due to severe market disagreements and the need for official data to guide trading decisions.As the first official data released after the U.S. government shutdown ended, although it was delayed by two months, it still provided a baseline for the market's subsequent trend. Before the release, the market had largely withdrawn expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with the probability dropping below 50%, which was a main reason for the stock index decline last week. After the data release, Federal Reserve officials voiced mixed views, with both dovish and hawkish statements highlighting significant divergence ahead of the December Fed meeting. Dovish comments raised the odds of a rate cut and boosted sto

Trend Insights:It is still too early to turn fully bullish on U.S. equities; the main strategic focus should be on trading a potential second bottom rather than rushing to deploy all capital. The current market is shifting from a one-way rally driven by expectations of monetary easing toward a choppier regime in which investors are repricing the timing of rate cuts, the AI bubble, and credit spreads. Over the medium term, U.S. stocks still have a good chance of delivering a “Santa rally,” but near-term risks have not been cleared, and the necessary conditions for a durable reversal are only gradually falling into place, so the time for an all-out long stance has not yet arrived.December rate cut not locked inAt the moment, the probability of a December rate cut implied by Fed funds futures

Recently, gold has been moving in tandem with the broader U.S. equity market, showing roller-coaster style swings that are hard to grasp in terms of timing and direction.This analysis will briefly review the rhythm and patterns of gold price fluctuations from technical and fundamental perspectives, and then discuss how retail traders can use trading tools to capture these profit opportunities.​Based on a combination of current price structure and capital-flow signals, gold is still likely to probe lower repeatedly in the short term, and this round of correction has not yet fully run its course. However, from a longer-term cyclical perspective, the current gold bull market is far from over, and the potential upside remains significant.​4000-dollar level: short-term support may not hold at o

The most important event this week is the release of the first nonfarm payrolls report following the shutdown of the U.S. government. This September nonfarm payrolls report was originally scheduled for release in early October, but due to the U.S. government shutdown it has been postponed to 21:30 Beijing time on November 20. At this stage, the market is unable to fully anticipate this report; after all, with a report coming after a 40‑day shutdown, nobody knows the path of the data from here or how much impact it will have on the Federal Reserve’s rate‑cutting process. According to probability data from CME’s FedWatch tool, the odds of a rate cut versus no cut in December have already narrowed to roughly fifty‑fifty, and the public statements by Federal Reserve officials are also highly d

The rebound in the crypto market the weekend before last ultimately proved to be nothing more than a flash in the pan. As both Bitcoin and Ethereum have gone on to set new recent lows, the overall rhythm of the market has started to clearly signal the arrival of a new bear market in cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, last week’s sharp pullback in silver after making a midweek high continued the sequential logic of the “three-horse carriage”: after the bull trap in precious metals, U.S. equities have become the only fortress that has not yet been breached by the bears. With a large batch of economic data due this week, plus important individual earnings reports, will this be the final straw that breaks the camel’s back?​Among the three drivers of crypto, precious metals, and U.S. equities, the cl

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Last week, after publishing a medium- to long‑term bullish view on U.S. equities in the piece titled “Government Reopening: Why It Could Ignite the Next Leg of the U.S. Stock Rally” equity indices did not immediately reverse higher, but instead remained stuck in a weak, choppy range near the lows. This time, the focus is on why U.S. equity indices are currently trapped in this kind of weak consolidation, and how retail investors should respond and hedge risk.​The global market is now in a dangerous transition characterized by a “macro data blackout + liquidity repricing,” during which index directionality is weak, but volatility pricing is prone to s

Ahead of OPEC’s monthly market analysis and the IEA’s annual energy outlook this week, WTI steadied after three straight up days, signaling a shift from chasing strength to waiting on new data. Traders are focused on Wednesday night’s OPEC release and the forthcoming IEA outlook.​ $WTI原油主连 2512(CLmain)$ Curve signalsThe WTI term structure has seen the spread between far-month and near-month contracts narrow markedly, a classic sign that inventories are moving from tight toward looser in the physical market. Since the October 20 bottom in WTI, far-month vs near-month spread have kept compressing, implying faltering buy interest in near-month and a supply backdrop shifting from tight to more ample. Throughout the year, worries about a “large sur

Year-end is usually a quiet period, when markets thin out and traders take time off—but hold on and get through this week first. For FX traders in particular, after several years of dull price action, the key that could set a major move in motion for 2026 may well be this week.​More specifically, beyond the Bank of Japan’s impending rate hike, close attention also needs to be paid to possible shifts in monetary policy at the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. If the major G7 central banks all choose to bring their easing cycles to an end, while the United States—under a new Fed chair in the future—moves against that trend, then the trend driven by rate differentials/spread differentials could be enormous.​The U.S. Dollar Index has already shown signs of weakening across 2025; s

The U.S. stock market saw a pullback, and while a decline in equity indices is entirely normal, an intraday headline made the move particularly noteworthy. Markets had largely assumed the next Federal Reserve Chair would be White House chief economic adviser Kevin Hassett. However, last Friday (local time), President Trump said that as he considers a successor to Powell, he is leaning toward “two Kevins”—Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett. Although Hassett has been viewed as the front-runner, Trump noted that after a 45-minute White House meeting with Warsh on Wednesday, Warsh has also entered his top tier of preferred candidates. That news contributed to a pullback in U.S. equity indices, suggesting that markets view Warsh as a relatively hawkish option whose comments may be amplified further,

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!1. $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ Gold Technical AnalysisGold prices appear to have entered a consolidation phase, as buyers failed to break through the previous all-time high of $4,381 and challenge the $4,400 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that bullish momentum is waning, with the RSI retreating from overbought territory.With the daily closing price falling below $4,350, the first support level is at $4,300. A breach below this level could test the December 11 high of $4,285, with further support near $4,250. A sustained decline could then extend toward $4,200. Trading recommendation: M

Be cautious: this week, both U.S. equities and the two most crowded assets—gold and silver—are sitting in a fragile equilibrium of “high prices + low volatility + high leverage.” On top of that, the headline calendar includes Quadruple witching day, a Bank of Japan rate hike, and the return of the previously paused U.S. nonfarm payrolls release—factors that make a meaningful volatility expansion highly likely. In such an environment, any one-way bet can easily be whipsawed as take-profit and stop-loss orders get triggered repeatedly.​In these conditions—especially before the Bank of Japan announces its policy decision—the priority should shift away from trying to be “right” on a single directional call. The focus should be on protecting earlier gains and controlling drawdowns, because the

Many people may not yet have noticed that the current market is showing a very intriguing and seemingly contradictory pattern. On one hand, bond market pricing suggests that investors do not believe the Federal Reserve, even after its leadership change, can smoothly and quickly transition into a clearly dovish policy environment. On the other hand, silver prices have hit fresh highs even without any visible squeeze caused by tightness in the physical inventory. The gold–silver ratio has undergone a technical collapse, which implies that market bets on future inflation remain elevated, and silver is very likely front-running a new upcycle in broader commodities.​国内现货白银市场的基差持续走弱，但美白银仍然持续逼空上涨In Chinese physical silver market, the basis has continued to weaken, yet U.S. silver prices are still

As possibly the most critical week toward year-end, the Fed’s 25‑basis‑point rate cut this week is already common knowledge. This means the market now needs new information to trigger meaningful volatility. Some believe Chair Powell may announce a bond‑buying program, while others expect a highly dovish outlook at the press conference. However, given that Powell is set to step down in May next year, doing nothing may actually be the best option.​From recent market behavior, even though monetary policy no longer dominates as it once did, investors still generally accept the logic that rate cuts equal easier financial conditions, which in turn are positive for markets. Following this line of reasoning, announcing Treasury purchases or signaling a more dovish path for next year would both be

This week, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda delivered his clearest signal so far that the BoJ is likely to raise rates this month. He indicated that the policy board may lift rates soon and specifically emphasized the possibility of taking action at the December BoJ meeting. At the same time, both the Finance Minister and the Economic and Growth Strategy Minister refrained from expressing any opposition, and this shift in stance has driven the implied probability of a December hike in Japan’s interest-rate derivatives market up to more than 80 percent at one point, making it almost a foregone conclusion.More importantly, expectations for this BoJ hike are quietly reshaping the global liquidity landscape and have a high likelihood of triggering broad, cross‑asset volatility in the near ter

Technical Analysis: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ A sustained break above $4,250 is required, along with holding this key level, to regain upward momentum! Gold consolidated sideways after breaking out of the symmetrical triangle pattern, lacking follow-through buying support!On the H4 chart, gold oscillates around the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), indicating neutral short-term momentum. However, the overall uptrend remains intact, with pullbacks likely attracting dip-buying interest.Initial support lies at the lower boundary of the recent consolidation range around $4160-$4170, with further support near the 100-period SMA at $4141.Momentum indicators show a neutral-to-bullish bias: MACD histogram bars are narrowing toward the zero line while main

A significant market movement for gold and silver is anticipated leading up to the Federal Reserve's final meeting of the year. The market widely expects the Fed to continue cutting interest rates, with some even forecasting another cut in January. However, with the market having already priced in the likely successor to the Fed chair, this meeting is drawing less attention than usual. The primary source of uncertainty may lie in the differing opinions among the voting members. In the near future, the market is likely to focus more on the statements of the "shadow" Fed chair to predict the future path of rate cuts, potentially making the market less sensitive to Fed meetings until the leadership transition is complete.​Gold Awaits a Clearer Path for Rate CutsDespite strong expectations for

Last week, silver surged to a new high even as gold’s performance lagged significantly, far exceeding my earlier expectations. In hindsight, this trading and manipulation pattern bears resemblance to that of Ethereum/Bitcoin this year: the larger-cap asset first posts consecutive new highs, followed by a rapid rally in the smaller-cap one to hit an all-time peak. While such fundamentals-defying gains have proven short-lived in the crypto market, one should not go against the prevailing trend.Silver recorded a weekly gain of over 10% last week, and the emergence of a new high means there are no technical reference points to rely on. As long as it trades above the 54.4 level, the market is clearly dominated by bulls. Since its 2022 low around 17.4, silver has seen a rally of more than 300% i

Next week marks the start of December, and in overseas markets December is usually a fairly quiet month. When there has already been sufficient volatility in the first eleven months, as long as there is no sudden news in December, institutional traders and fund managers generally trade cautiously in order to avoid overtrading and hurting their year-end performance. This year, volatility has already been large due to global trade and tariff headlines, and with the market also expecting a Fed rate cut in December, price swings in December may be smaller than in November. U.S. equity indices might even enter the Christmas season early, meaning light trading and a lukewarm, directionless market.​Over the weekend, an unverified rumor suddenly spread that Fed Chair Jerome Powell would announce h

Trend Insights:It is still too early to turn fully bullish on U.S. equities; the main strategic focus should be on trading a potential second bottom rather than rushing to deploy all capital. The current market is shifting from a one-way rally driven by expectations of monetary easing toward a choppier regime in which investors are repricing the timing of rate cuts, the AI bubble, and credit spreads. Over the medium term, U.S. stocks still have a good chance of delivering a “Santa rally,” but near-term risks have not been cleared, and the necessary conditions for a durable reversal are only gradually falling into place, so the time for an all-out long stance has not yet arrived.December rate cut not locked inAt the moment, the probability of a December rate cut implied by Fed funds futures

Two weeks ago, we discussed that WTI crude oil was trading within a range-bound market, making it suitable for selling weekly WTI put options below the prior low of $55 or holding a short WTI futures position combined with selling weekly put options to construct a covered put strategy for this environment. Investors without access to futures or options can consider energy or crude oil ETFs as an alternative.Bearish Crude Reports Trigger a Sharp Selloff: How to Use Options to Trade a Choppy Market？Since then, WTI crude oil has continued to oscillate and weaken, but it has not yet broken below the $55 level, confirming the effectiveness of the previous strategy. Recently, the price volatility has increased, and WTI crude

Last week’s U.S. non-farm payroll data attracted widespread attention due to severe market disagreements and the need for official data to guide trading decisions.As the first official data released after the U.S. government shutdown ended, although it was delayed by two months, it still provided a baseline for the market's subsequent trend. Before the release, the market had largely withdrawn expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with the probability dropping below 50%, which was a main reason for the stock index decline last week. After the data release, Federal Reserve officials voiced mixed views, with both dovish and hawkish statements highlighting significant divergence ahead of the December Fed meeting. Dovish comments raised the odds of a rate cut and boosted sto

Recently, gold has been moving in tandem with the broader U.S. equity market, showing roller-coaster style swings that are hard to grasp in terms of timing and direction.This analysis will briefly review the rhythm and patterns of gold price fluctuations from technical and fundamental perspectives, and then discuss how retail traders can use trading tools to capture these profit opportunities.​Based on a combination of current price structure and capital-flow signals, gold is still likely to probe lower repeatedly in the short term, and this round of correction has not yet fully run its course. However, from a longer-term cyclical perspective, the current gold bull market is far from over, and the potential upside remains significant.​4000-dollar level: short-term support may not hold at o

Last week, after publishing a medium- to long‑term bullish view on U.S. equities in the piece titled “Government Reopening: Why It Could Ignite the Next Leg of the U.S. Stock Rally” equity indices did not immediately reverse higher, but instead remained stuck in a weak, choppy range near the lows. This time, the focus is on why U.S. equity indices are currently trapped in this kind of weak consolidation, and how retail investors should respond and hedge risk.​The global market is now in a dangerous transition characterized by a “macro data blackout + liquidity repricing,” during which index directionality is weak, but volatility pricing is prone to s

Last night, the S&P 500 staged a sharp rebound and completed a daily bottom fractal from a technical perspective, while S&P futures extended modest gains today, nearly piercing the prior fractal’s high; technically, they are just shy of confirming a daily‑level bottoming rebound pattern. Even though the continuing resolution still needs a House vote, markets have been strongly buoyed by the prospect that the government will “reopen.” In this view, the U.S. equity pullback likely found a bottom and may now transition into a new Santa‑rally leg.​The core logic can be summarized as a transmission chain of “liquidity return → rate stabilization → risk‑appetite repair.” During the shutdown, the Treasury absorbed substantial market cash and squeezed system reserves; once the government r

Ahead of OPEC’s monthly market analysis and the IEA’s annual energy outlook this week, WTI steadied after three straight up days, signaling a shift from chasing strength to waiting on new data. Traders are focused on Wednesday night’s OPEC release and the forthcoming IEA outlook.​ $WTI原油主连 2512(CLmain)$ Curve signalsThe WTI term structure has seen the spread between far-month and near-month contracts narrow markedly, a classic sign that inventories are moving from tight toward looser in the physical market. Since the October 20 bottom in WTI, far-month vs near-month spread have kept compressing, implying faltering buy interest in near-month and a supply backdrop shifting from tight to more ample. Throughout the year, worries about a “large sur

The most important event this week is the release of the first nonfarm payrolls report following the shutdown of the U.S. government. This September nonfarm payrolls report was originally scheduled for release in early October, but due to the U.S. government shutdown it has been postponed to 21:30 Beijing time on November 20. At this stage, the market is unable to fully anticipate this report; after all, with a report coming after a 40‑day shutdown, nobody knows the path of the data from here or how much impact it will have on the Federal Reserve’s rate‑cutting process. According to probability data from CME’s FedWatch tool, the odds of a rate cut versus no cut in December have already narrowed to roughly fifty‑fifty, and the public statements by Federal Reserve officials are also highly d

The rebound in the crypto market the weekend before last ultimately proved to be nothing more than a flash in the pan. As both Bitcoin and Ethereum have gone on to set new recent lows, the overall rhythm of the market has started to clearly signal the arrival of a new bear market in cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, last week’s sharp pullback in silver after making a midweek high continued the sequential logic of the “three-horse carriage”: after the bull trap in precious metals, U.S. equities have become the only fortress that has not yet been breached by the bears. With a large batch of economic data due this week, plus important individual earnings reports, will this be the final straw that breaks the camel’s back?​Among the three drivers of crypto, precious metals, and U.S. equities, the cl