To The Moon

Over the past week, renewed military clashes between the United States and Iran have shaken global equity markets, while gold has retreated sharply from recent highs and overall risk appetite has come under pressure. The situation on the ground remains highly uncertain, with persistent geopolitical tensions interacting with shifting macro expectations; most investors are adopting a cautious stance, waiting for subsequent key U.S. economic data releases in order to better gauge the Federal Reserve’s policy path and the trajectory of asset prices.

As of around 4:00 p.m. on 12 June 2026, the weekly performance of major assets is as follows:

In an environment where macro expectations are oscillating, looking at price moves alone is no longer sufficient to capture the main drivers of asset performance. By comparison, inventory dynamics provide a clearer picture of underlying physical supply‑demand conditions, while capital flows better reflect investors’ allocation preferences. Against this backdrop, we examine the latest developments in U.S. equities, U.S. Treasuries, crude oil, copper, aluminum, and gold and silver from two angles: inventories and capital flows.

1.Rising Equity Fund Outflows, Stronger Inflows into Bond Funds

According to the latest data from the Investment Company Institute (ICI):

Equity funds are facing increased redemption pressure: for the week ended 3 June 2026, U.S. equity mutual funds are estimated to have recorded net outflows of 37.39 billion U.S. dollars (about 0.2% of assets as of 30 April), remaining in net‑outflow territory and indicating that funding conditions for equity mutual funds are still weak and risk appetite has yet to meaningfully recover. Compared with estimated net outflows of 16.51 billion dollars in the previous week, this implies an additional 20.88 billion dollars of outflows, suggesting greater redemption pressure and an accelerated pace of capital withdrawal from equity funds.

Bond funds, by contrast, are seeing stronger net inflows: for the same week ended 3 June 2026, U.S. bond mutual funds are estimated to have registered net inflows of 16.67 billion dollars (about 0.3% of assets as of 30 April), extending the run of positive flows and indicating that bond funds continue to attract incremental capital, underpinned by demand for more defensive and income‑oriented allocations. Relative to estimated net inflows of 4.19 billion dollars in the previous week, weekly inflows increased by about 12.48 billion dollars, pointing to improving momentum in bond fund inflows and a further pick‑up in allocation demand.

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2609(ESmain)$ $Micro E-mini S&P 500 - main 2609(MESmain)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $E-mini Dow Jones - main 2609(YMmain)$ $Micro E-mini Dow Jones - main 2609(MYMmain)$ $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust(DIA)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2609(NQmain)$ $Nasdaq ETF(BK4593)$ $Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2609(MNQmain)$

Turning to the yield curve, the latest data as of 10 June 2026 show the U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield at around 4.55%, while the 3‑month Treasury bill yield stands at roughly 3.79%. At the right‑hand side of the chart, the recent pattern indicates that after spiking and then pulling back in May, the long end (10‑year) has moved higher again in June, whereas the short end (3‑month) has seen only modest changes overall with a slight uptick recently, leading to a small increase in the positive term spread between the two this week.

$10-YR T-NOTE - main 2609(ZNmain)$ $Micro 10-Year Yield - Jun 2026(10Y2606)$ $Micro 10-Year Yield - Jul 2026(10Y2607)$

2.Crude Oil: Ongoing Drawdowns and Tightening Inventories

Bloomberg’s latest data show that as of 10 June 2026 (the most recent data point), U.S. commercial crude inventories stood at 426.5 million barrels, a decline of 7.227 million barrels from the prior week. Crude stocks at Cushing, the key delivery hub, were 21.64 million barrels, down 801,000 barrels week‑on‑week. Taken together with the charted trends, U.S. crude inventories have clearly entered a downward trajectory since late April, with the latest weekly drawdown further accelerating this trend. Commercial crude stocks have continued to move toward the lower end of their five‑year range, while Cushing inventories have already fallen below the five‑year band, indicating a markedly tight inventory situation at the core U.S. delivery point.

$WTI Crude Oil - main 2607(CLmain)$ $Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2607(MCLmain)$ $E-mini Crude Oil - main 2607(QMmain)$

3.Copper: Overall Inventories Declining, Only CME Still Trending Higher

As of 5 June 2026, total global visible copper inventories were about 1.261 million tonnes, still in the relatively elevated range of the past two years. By exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) copper inventories were around 170,000 tonnes, CME copper inventories about 645,000 short tons, and LME copper inventories roughly 506,000 tonnes.

Looking at the marginal changes on the right edge of the charts, the latest weekly dynamics can be summarized as: continued destocking in Shanghai, continued inventory accumulation at elevated levels on CME, and a pullback from high levels on the LME. Overall, global visible copper inventories have edged down further but remain at a relatively high level, with fluctuations becoming somewhat more subdued compared with earlier periods.

  $ETFS COPPER(COPA.UK)$ $Copper - main 2607(HGmain)$ $Micro Copper - main 2607(MHGmain)$ $E-MINI COPPER - main 2607(QCmain)$

4.Aluminum: Diverging Inventories Across Regions, Overall Largely Flat

As of 5 June 2026, combined aluminum inventories on the three major exchanges totaled about 858,000 tonnes. By market, COMEX aluminum inventories were roughly 647 tonnes, still at an extremely low level; LME aluminum inventories were about 333,000 tonnes and continued to decline while remaining low; SHFE aluminum inventories were around 524,000 tonnes, the highest among the three and still at an absolute high level relative to the past two years.

From a marginal perspective, SHFE aluminum inventories have extended their prior uptrend and continued to build over the latest week, LME aluminum inventories have kept falling, and COMEX aluminum inventories remain low with a slight decrease. Overall, inventories across the three regions continue to show clear divergence, while total inventories are essentially moving sideways.

$ETFS ALUMINIUM(ALUM.UK)$ $ALUMINUM FUTURES - main 2608(ALImain)$

5.Gold and Silver: Gold Inventories Still Tight, Silver Inventories Edging Higher

According to the latest data from Wind:

• Inventory side (physical fundamentals): as of 10 June 2026, COMEX gold inventories stood at 28.0809 million troy ounces, continuing to decline from the prior week, while COMEX silver inventories were 320 million troy ounces, up slightly from the previous week. From a historical perspective, gold inventories have continued their long‑term downtrend and are still moving toward lower levels, whereas silver inventories, despite the recent modest rebound, remain within a relatively tight range by recent‑year standards.

COMEX Gold Inventories

COMEX Silver Inventories

• Positioning side (futures positioning): as of 2 June 2026, non‑commercial long positions in COMEX gold futures totaled 206,100 contracts, with short positions at 30,100 contracts; non‑commercial long positions in COMEX silver futures were 10,000 contracts, with short positions at 33,900 contracts. On a marginal weekly basis, both gold and silver saw a modest increase in speculative long positions and a decline in short positions.

COMEX Gold Positioning

COMEX Silver Positioning

$Gold - main 2608(GCmain)$ $E-Micro Gold - main 2608(MGCmain)$ $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ $1-Ounce Gold - main 2608(1OZmain)$ $E-mini Gold - main 2608(QOmain)$ $Silver - main 2607(SImain)$ $E-mini Silver - main 2607(QImain)$ $iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$ $100-Ounce Silver - main 2607(SICmain)$ $Micro Silver Futures - main 2607(SILmain)$

6.Conclusion: Follow the Money and Know the Inventory Base

Over the latest week, on the inventory side, crude oil has seen a marked acceleration in inventory drawdowns and continues to run below its five‑year average, while copper and aluminum inventories remain on divergent paths and gold inventories keep grinding lower as silver inventories edge up. On the capital‑flow side, U.S. equity funds are experiencing larger outflows, whereas bond funds are attracting stronger inflows. Positioning data for precious metals are relatively lagged and should therefore be interpreted with caution in conjunction with real‑time market developments. As for how the subsequent price action will unfold, this will ultimately depend on how fundamentals and policy expectations evolve over time.