This week, the crude oil market and gold-silver prices have both seen heavy volatility. Gold plunged sharply, effectively wiping out three months of gains. As for the reason behind the move, some people say Trump is once again talking too much and “drawing candlesticks with his mouth,” but today let’s dig into the data and take a closer look. Let’s start with the COT data released by the CFTC, and we’ll also go through The Flow Show data. First, let’s clarify two concepts: what exactly are the CFTC data and The Flow Show? In commodity futures research, exchange-traded activity can be understood as trading futures contracts. The rules are standardized by the exchange, including contract size, quality, delivery month, and delivery location, and then the clearinghouse handles centralized clea

Remember at the beginning of the year, numerous reports projected that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates four times. However, following the surge in oil prices, the market has swung from one extreme to another. Today, hardly anyone dares to anticipate any rate cuts this year. In fact, working backward from the latest U.S. Treasury yield data, the market has even begun to price in potential rate hikes starting in October. This dramatic shift—going from extreme euphoria to sheer panic in just two to three weeks—clearly demonstrates that market trends are currently driven by future sentiment and expectations rather than genuine, medium-to-long-term fundamental changes. Investors must deeply understand this reality. Predictably, if the strait blockade eventually concludes and rate c

Futures traders, come on over. Today we’re continuing our look at the COT data released by the CFTC.In previous sessions, I also added some off-exchange flow data for context, such as ETF fund-flow data. Today, we’re not just covering the CFTC numbers; we’ll also go through The Flow Show data.Before we begin, let’s clarify two concepts: what exactly are the CFTC data and The Flow Show?In commodity futures research, exchange-traded activity can be understood as trading standardized futures contracts. The exchange sets the rules, including contract size, quality specifications, delivery month, and delivery location, and the clearinghouse handles centralized clearing. ETFs, which most people are familiar with, are also exchange-traded instruments, so they belong to the on-exchange market rath

If you want to trade futures, then CFTC data is something you really shouldn’t ignore. The CFTC is the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which you can think of as the regulator of the U.S. futures market. Every week, it publishes large-trader positioning data that tells you which side the big money is on.​ So today, let’s go through the latest set of CFTC data.​ Before we begin, let me briefly explain what CFTC data actually is. The CFTC report tracks positions in futures contracts, and these are divided into reportable positions and non-reportable positions. Reportable positions are further split into commercial and non-commercial positions. You can think of commercial positions as those held by industrial capital, such as mines, smelters, manufacturers, and other business entiti

First, I want to share a screenshot from my previous analysis of silver and gold price action. In that earlier piece, I said silver’s short-term top—assuming the Fed did not turn more hawkish and there was no black-swan surge in the U.S. dollar—should be above 130, while gold could be headed above 5,000. A little over a week later, silver has already printed a new high, and gold has also surged well past 5,000. $白银主连 2603(SImain)$ $白银2603(SI2603)$ $2倍做多白银ETF-ProShares(AGQ)$ $白银ETF-iShares(SLV)$ $微白银主连 2603(SILmain)$

Last week’s macro framework is still working this week, and Trump has kicked off yet another farce: he floated the idea of purchasing Greenland from Europe and also imposed tariffs on eight European countries that opposed him.​ The situation has become even more turbulent.Why Trump Threatened 11 Countries in Just Two Weeks: The Dollar on the Edge Tells the StoryThis is almost certainly not the last step in Trump’s external provocation, but it is very likely an important move within his broader foreign strategy.​Today, let’s take a little time to briefly discuss the logic behind the Greenland dispute.First, one point must be clarified: why is Trump deliberately stirring trouble in his own “backyard”?​ One day it’s Venezu

As expected from last week’s outlook, after silver posted its first “top-and-drop” move, silver futures have staged another sharp rebound exactly one week later. As discussed previously, silver rarely tops out with a clean inverted-V reversal based on its historical price behavior; more commonly, it forms a second rebound on the weekly chart and only then peaks again and rolls over, and that second rebound often appears about one week after the first peak-and-selloff.Review: Can the trading distribution of silver futures options “leak” the future path for silver?$白银主连 2603(SImain)$ $微白银主连 2603(SILmain)$

After the policy outcomes from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan were released, the market’s largest near-term risk window has largely passed.​Based on how price action has responded so far, the Santa rally has very likely begun; historically, it typically runs from late December into early January, and U.S. equities have a high probability of grinding higher with choppy gains during this period.​What’s more, while mega-cap tech looks expensive, the overall valuation of the equal-weight S&P 500 is not particularly stretched, so over the coming week it may be worth considering a strategy of selling weekly put options on Nasdaq futures with strikes below the 20-week moving average.​At the same time, it also makes sense to prepare in advance for a potential explosive move in commo

$Southern Copper Corp(SCCO)$ $Copper - main 2512(HGmain)$ $BHP GROUP LTD(BHP.AU)$ 🔥📈⚒️ Copper Shockwave: $SCCO Rockets as $FCX Craters ⚒️📈🔥 I’m calling it straight: today’s copper surge isn’t just noise, it’s a structural shock that re-prices leadership in the sector. $SCCO blasting +8.84% to $120.01 while $FCX collapsed -10% on Grasberg’s force majeure is the clearest rotation we’ve seen all year. This isn’t a hedge fund shuffle; it’s the market rewriting who the winners are in global copper. 🥇 Q2 2025 Copper Production League Table 🏆 Top 3 Leaders 🔵 $BHP: 516,200t (stability from scale) 🔴 $FCX: 436,809t (risk flagged with Grasberg halt) 🔵 Codelco: 365,000

$Copper - main 2509(HGmain)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Copper, long dubbed the lifeblood of modern economies, is suddenly grabbing headlines again. After years of steady but muted trading, copper futures have staged a powerful breakout in 2025 — propelled by a combustible mix of rising demand, tightening supply, and a dramatic policy twist: a proposed 50% tariff on copper imports into the United States announced by former President Trump on the campaign trail. This policy shock has jolted the market and left investors, manufacturers, and electric vehicle makers scrambling to assess the implications. Could this mark the beginning of a sustained supercycle in copper? Or is it simply a speculative spike doome

Q1 Global Assets Recap1. Click to see the Chart 1: Q1 2025 Global Asset Highlights[Allin] The first quarter of 2025 has already passed, and the performance of global major asset classes has shown a diversified trend.The three major U.S. stock indexes fell sharply in the first quarter, with the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ down 4.59%, the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ down 1.28%, and the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ down 10.42%.Meanwhile, Hong Kong stocks performed well, driven by China's artificial intelligence industry. The $HSI(HSI)$ and the $HSTE

In January and February 2025, copper prices both domestically and internationally have shown signs of strengthening. This trend is driven by two key factors: expectations of copper supply shortages and a recovery in copper demand, both domestically and abroad. Reflecting on the surge in copper prices from February to May 2024, it was primarily fueled by market optimism about increased copper consumption due to advancements in artificial intelligence (AI). However, weaker-than-expected domestic copper consumption subsequently limited the price rally.Looking ahead, we anticipate a renewed upward trend in copper prices. The primary drivers include a tightening copper supply worldwide, which has led to negative spot market treatment and refining charges (TC/RC) for copper concentrates. Additio

U.S. bond yields rose further last week, putting gold under pressure, but the long-term narrative has not changed. As far as copper is concerned, the performance of copper prices in the past two weeks has been extremely calm and in a state of volatility convergence, just as all kinds of assets have amplified fluctuations due to Trump's coming to power, thus pricing in advance the possibility after he took office. CORE POINTS1. Copper prices continued to fluctuate last week, and gold fell back after hitting a new highIn terms of precious metals, COMEX gold fell 0.55% and silver fell 5.22% last week; The Shanghai Gold 2410 contract fell 0.46%, and the Shanghai Silver 2410 contract fell 5.12%. Among the prices of major industrial metals, COMEX copper and Shanghai copper changed by-7.53% and-3

Last week, the Federal Reserve opened a new rate-cutting cycle with an "unconventional" 50 basis points, marking the official end of tightening since early 2022.The background and implications of this decision are worth exploring in depth. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Extent and path of the rate cutThe Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut is intended to be a quick response to potential economic growth pressures. $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ Although the market is generally positive about the rate cut, but there are also concerns about recession.Powell emphasized in this context, there is no obvious signs of recession, and the future path of interest rate cuts will be more gentle.According to the Fed's "dot plo