After rallying in August, gold has pulled back to the midpoint of that advance, with neither bulls nor bears gaining a clear upper hand. Technically, prices remain confined to the prior consolidation range, leaving room for either a breakout or a breakdown in the near term. The question is not whether gold must rise or fall, but whether post-FOMC macro moves can force a break from the range. $黃金主連 2612(GCmain)$ $微黃金主連 2612(MGCmain)$ $1盎司黃金主連 2612(1OZmain)$ $黃金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$ FOMC Surprise Drives Near-Term Pricing, With Real Yields and the Do

Weekly Roundup 1. The Real Focus of the FOMC Isn't the Rate Move. It's the Treasury Yield Curve. Markets have largely priced in a 25-basis-point hike, so whether asset prices reprice sharply in the near term will hinge on how the Fed frames its future rate path and inflation outlook. The 10-year Treasury yield is closing in on 5%, and a decisive break above that level would weigh on both stocks and gold through three channels: valuation discounting, funding costs and risk appetite. What markets are really waiting on is whether long-term yields have peaked. 2. Beneath a Calm Surface, US Stocks Show Signs of Technical Fatigue. Market breadth is fading fast: only about 28% of NYSE-listed stocks are trading above their 20-day moving average, and the equal-weight S&P 500 has slipped be

Last week’s CPI release brought market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike into much sharper alignment. Following the euro area’s earlier rate increase and a 0.3% month-over-month rise in core CPI, markets are now pricing in roughly a 90% probability that the Fed will raise rates in September. Although core CPI came in marginally above expectations, the overall reading was not excessively strong. In particular, core CPI has not accelerated significantly even with oil prices approaching USD 100 per barrel. The market also generally expects the Fed’s tightening path to remain relatively gradual. As a result, a rate hike this week is largely priced in. Conversely, if the Fed unexpectedly leaves rates unchanged, the decision could be interpreted as a positive surprise and potentially

Introduction: Markets Hold Firm as Rate Sensitivity Rises From August 31 to September 4, U.S. stocks moved as investors weighed geopolitical risks, higher oil prices, volatile global bond yields and a stronger jobs report. SPY gained 0.41% for the week, suggesting that risk appetite remained intact. However, market swings grew sharper. On September 4, August nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000, well above forecasts, while unemployment held at 4.1%. As a result, Treasury yields and the dollar climbed, prompting investors to price in a greater chance of further Fed tightening. $标普500(.SPX)$ $标普500ETF(SPY)$ $SP500指数主连 2609

Macro Strategy Weekly China’s Rebounding Energy Demand Is Pushing Global Yields Higher: What Is the Best Options Strategy for Navigating a Range-Bound Market? Weekly Strategy Summary The key focus for markets this week is not to make a directional bet on any single asset. Rather, it is to monitor how the yen, crude oil, global bond yields, the U.S. dollar, and U.S. equities establish new inter-market linkages. The key takeaways from this week’s report are as follows. $Japanese Yen - main 2609(JPYmain)$ $WTI Crude Oil - main 2610(CLmain)$ $E-mini Crude Oil - main 2610(QMmain)$

Recently, the broader market and most asset classes have remained locked in a relatively measured, range-bound tug-of-war. Inflation and rate-hike discussions have driven short-term volatility, but they have not triggered any meaningful change in the overall trend. Meanwhile, in a less closely watched corner of the market, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has gradually climbed back toward the highs of the previous tightening cycle. If bond prices lose further control from here, both the Federal Reserve and the market itself could face significant challenges. In theory, changes in U.S. interest rates drive fluctuations in Treasury prices and, in turn, movements in Treasury yields. In other words, policy rates should serve as the anchor. This year, however, long-dated Treasury yields have cle

Last night, I hosted a live session on Tiger’s futures platform titled Global Multi-Asset Allocation Strategy. The session covered global macro conditions, U.S. equities, gold, and Bitcoin, with a focus on the market’s key tensions, potential risks, and corresponding trading ideas. For those who were unable to attend the live session, the replay is available here >>> U.S. Stocks: Will Semis Drag Markets Lower Again? Bitcoin: Escape Hatch or Bomb? Below, I have organized the key information and trading-related views from the session to help readers who did not have time to attend quickly understand my current market perspective. Before that, let me briefly introduce my background. I am currently a contracte

As of the close on August 28, 2026, this report examines the interaction among interest-rate expectations, the U.S. dollar, inventory data, fund flows, and speculative positioning across gold, silver, crude oil, copper, and aluminum. Market Overview U.S. July PCE inflation rose 3.7% year over year, while core PCE inflation increased 3.3%; both remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. At the Jackson Hole meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh stated explicitly that “if inflation does not decline meaningfully, further rate hikes may be necessary,” significantly increasing market expectations for a September rate hike. Against this backdrop, the commodity market featured precious metals consolidating at elevated levels before pulling back, crude oil retreating as its geopolitical p

Gold has been drifting near its lows for about four weeks since bottoming in late June. Although the bulls' earlier rebound attempts made limited headway, the technical structure suggests the probability of a larger-degree rebound in the next phase still exists. This week's earnings season and the Fed's rate decision are expected to be decisive for overall market risk appetite. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $ProShares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ)$ $ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ(SQQQ)$ $Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF(QQQM)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)