Tesla Needs a Win: What Should We Focus on Tesla Earnings Tonight?
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ is down 43% year-to-date, and heading into its earnings report, it’s once again hovering near the critical $220 level.
According to FactSet, analysts expect an adjusted EPS of $0.43 and revenue of $21.45 billion. But the actual numbers in the report might not move the stock much—because Tesla's Q1 delivery numbers released on April 2 have already shaped expectations around revenue and profits.
So what could really move the stock?
The earnings call: especially how Musk addresses these key issues:
When will Musk step down from DOGE?
When will the low-cost vehicle be launched?
Is robotaxi still on track for launch this year?
Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives stated:
It's time for Musk to step back from DOGE and return as Tesla's full-time CEO.”
Recently, several international media outlets reported that Musk might, for the first time, publicly reveal his timeline for stepping away from DOGE during the earnings call.
Has the Core Auto Business Bottomed Out After the Q1 Delivery Miss?
Tesla delivered 336,681 vehicles in Q1, missing consensus by 12.24%. It produced 362,615 vehicles, missing by 7.22%. It’s clear that the existing product lineup and Tesla’s brand strength alone are no longer enough to drive sales.
The market is now hoping Tesla will deliver on its promise to launch a more affordable model in the first half of the year.
Bull Case
Some analysts believe the Q1 delivery miss was due to ramp-up challenges for the refreshed Model Y. As production stabilizes and cheaper new models (e.g. Model 2) are introduced, Tesla's delivery volume could rebound quickly.
Bear Case
If the affordable model and the Cybertruck fail to attract buyers, the core auto business could continue to decline. Reuters reported last Friday that Tesla has delayed production of its budget-friendly car—including a stripped-down version of the best-selling Model Y in the U.S.—by several months.
Can “AI Company” Tesla Launch Full Self-Driving in June?
Wall Street estimates Tesla’s automotive gross margin may hit a low point in Q1.
Today, Tesla China announced a new five-year 0% interest financing deal for the refreshed Model Y. As Tesla continues offering incentives to boost sales, the pressure on margins may persist.
Even after a 40% plunge, Tesla’s trailing PE ratio remains high at 109. This lofty valuation reflects the market’s positioning of Tesla as an AI company. For now, the most valuable AI application to Tesla’s revenue is Full Self-Driving (FSD).
Musk has pledged to roll out a driverless taxi service in Texas in June, and later this year in California.
So, will Musk deliver key FSD rollout details this time, or just continue painting a rosy picture?
Can Tesla replicate its post-earnings rally from April last year, when the stock jumped 14% that week?
With sentiment already so pessimistic, is it time for a rebound?
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市場現在希望特斯拉能夠兌現其承諾，在今年上半年推出一款更實惠的車型。
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ is down 43% year-to-date, and heading into its earnings report, it’s once again hovering near the critical $220 level.
According to FactSet, analysts expect an adjusted EPS of $0.43 and revenue of $21.45 billion. But the actual numbers in the report might not move the stock much—because Tesla's Q1 delivery numbers released on April 2 have already shaped expectations around revenue and profits.
Musk has pledged to roll out a driverless taxi service in Texas in June, and later this year in California.
So, will Musk deliver key FSD rollout details this time, or just continue painting a rosy picture?
Can Tesla replicate its post-earnings rally from April last year, when the stock jumped 14% that week?
With sentiment already so pessimistic, is it time for a rebound?
leave your comments to win tiger coins~
我个人认为，财报后的走势仍取决于FSD的推进进度是否足够“实”。去年的14%涨幅源于成本控制和中国市场复苏的积极信号，这次若没有实质性FSD进展，仅凭情绪修复，可能很难复制当时的强劲反弹。
不过，从市场情绪来看，当前特斯拉空头比例高企，悲观预期已接近极致，稍有利好就可能触发“卖预期、买现实”的反弹。我会密切关注马斯克是否能兑现“六月落地”这个节点。毕竟，对于特斯拉来说，FSD不仅仅是产品，而是估值体系的核心支柱。
I still believe in Tesla’s long-term AI potential, but the market needs more than just hype. If Musk can give concrete FSD or robotaxi rollout plans, sentiment could shift quickly. Otherwise, the high valuation becomes harder to justify, especially as margins remain under pressure due to ongoing price cuts.
With sentiment already so bearish, even modest good news could spark a rebound. I’m cautiously optimistic—this might be the bottom if Tesla can finally back up its bold promises. But if we just get vague timelines again, the market may not be forgiving this time.
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