Tesla Needs a Win: What Should We Focus on Tesla Earnings Tonight?
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ is down 43% year-to-date, and heading into its earnings report, it’s once again hovering near the critical $220 level.
According to FactSet, analysts expect an adjusted EPS of $0.43 and revenue of $21.45 billion. But the actual numbers in the report might not move the stock much—because Tesla's Q1 delivery numbers released on April 2 have already shaped expectations around revenue and profits.
So what could really move the stock?
The earnings call: especially how Musk addresses these key issues:
When will Musk step down from DOGE?
When will the low-cost vehicle be launched?
Is robotaxi still on track for launch this year?
Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives stated:
It's time for Musk to step back from DOGE and return as Tesla's full-time CEO.”
Recently, several international media outlets reported that Musk might, for the first time, publicly reveal his timeline for stepping away from DOGE during the earnings call.
Has the Core Auto Business Bottomed Out After the Q1 Delivery Miss?
Tesla delivered 336,681 vehicles in Q1, missing consensus by 12.24%. It produced 362,615 vehicles, missing by 7.22%. It’s clear that the existing product lineup and Tesla’s brand strength alone are no longer enough to drive sales.
The market is now hoping Tesla will deliver on its promise to launch a more affordable model in the first half of the year.
Bull Case
Some analysts believe the Q1 delivery miss was due to ramp-up challenges for the refreshed Model Y. As production stabilizes and cheaper new models (e.g. Model 2) are introduced, Tesla's delivery volume could rebound quickly.
Bear Case
If the affordable model and the Cybertruck fail to attract buyers, the core auto business could continue to decline. Reuters reported last Friday that Tesla has delayed production of its budget-friendly car—including a stripped-down version of the best-selling Model Y in the U.S.—by several months.
Can “AI Company” Tesla Launch Full Self-Driving in June?
Wall Street estimates Tesla’s automotive gross margin may hit a low point in Q1.
Today, Tesla China announced a new five-year 0% interest financing deal for the refreshed Model Y. As Tesla continues offering incentives to boost sales, the pressure on margins may persist.
Even after a 40% plunge, Tesla’s trailing PE ratio remains high at 109. This lofty valuation reflects the market’s positioning of Tesla as an AI company. For now, the most valuable AI application to Tesla’s revenue is Full Self-Driving (FSD).
Musk has pledged to roll out a driverless taxi service in Texas in June, and later this year in California.
So, will Musk deliver key FSD rollout details this time, or just continue painting a rosy picture?
Can Tesla replicate its post-earnings rally from April last year, when the stock jumped 14% that week?
With sentiment already so pessimistic, is it time for a rebound?
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市场现在希望特斯拉能够兑现其承诺，在今年上半年推出一款更实惠的车型。
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ is down 43% year-to-date, and heading into its earnings report, it’s once again hovering near the critical $220 level.
According to FactSet, analysts expect an adjusted EPS of $0.43 and revenue of $21.45 billion. But the actual numbers in the report might not move the stock much—because Tesla's Q1 delivery numbers released on April 2 have already shaped expectations around revenue and profits.
Musk has pledged to roll out a driverless taxi service in Texas in June, and later this year in California.
So, will Musk deliver key FSD rollout details this time, or just continue painting a rosy picture?
Can Tesla replicate its post-earnings rally from April last year, when the stock jumped 14% that week?
With sentiment already so pessimistic, is it time for a rebound?
leave your comments to win tiger coins~
我個人認爲，財報後的走勢仍取決於FSD的推進進度是否足夠“實”。去年的14%漲幅源於成本控制和中國市場復甦的積極信號，這次若沒有實質性FSD進展，僅憑情緒修復，可能很難複製當時的強勁反彈。
不過，從市場情緒來看，當前特斯拉空頭比例高企，悲觀預期已接近極致，稍有利好就可能觸發“賣預期、買現實”的反彈。我會密切關注馬斯克是否能兌現“六月落地”這個節點。畢竟，對於特斯拉來說，FSD不僅僅是產品，而是估值體系的核心支柱。
I still believe in Tesla’s long-term AI potential, but the market needs more than just hype. If Musk can give concrete FSD or robotaxi rollout plans, sentiment could shift quickly. Otherwise, the high valuation becomes harder to justify, especially as margins remain under pressure due to ongoing price cuts.
With sentiment already so bearish, even modest good news could spark a rebound. I’m cautiously optimistic—this might be the bottom if Tesla can finally back up its bold promises. But if we just get vague timelines again, the market may not be forgiving this time.
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